what do you think will happen today?

[dumptrump1]

Topsy turvy polls and 538 going insane, here is my prediction of who wins what states, although I am clueless on the margins or how delegates are awarded:

Bernie: american samoa, ca, tx,mn,vt,ma, me co and ut

Biden wins va, nc, ar, ok, Alabama, tn although Texas is looking like a pure tossup.


What say you?

[Jamastiene]

2. I think it's going to be mostly Biden from here on out.

Bernie will take some states, but Biden is a shoo-in at this point.

[dumptrump1]

4. he would need to win at least the majority of delegates today for that to happen

Even with all these endorsements, I dont find it too likely.

[TwilightZone]

7. He's forecast to get to 1738 now.

If the current momentum is indicative of a trend, a majority isn't that far-fetched, especially if Bloomberg pulls out in the near future.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

[dumptrump1]

13. forecasts change after every contest. 538 doesn't know better than anybody what would happen

In june.

[TwilightZone]

15. No, but the momentum can't be denied.

It's actually pretty shocking, in my opinion. Two weeks ago, Sanders was predicted to win SC for a while. The polls shifted dramatically, and he lost by nearly 30 points. A few days ago, Biden was forecast to win one state on Super Tuesday. Now, he's forecast to win more than half and people are actually predicting he might win Texas.

I thought he'd get a mild bump after SC. I didn't expect it would put the entire race on its head.

[dumptrump1]

16. if joe has proven anything by his so called comeback, it is that momentum is an illusion

That helped him now, but could come back to bite him in the near future.

[LanternWaste]

17. You're really moving the goalposts around on this one...

[dumptrump1]

20. no just saw an article about it recently.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/607351/

[Blue_true]

29. We have seen that over and over. Nothing new. nt

[TwilightZone]

18. No, it really isn't.

The polls showed significant momentum going into SC, but they didn't reflect that momentum anywhere near what it really was -- he won by nearly double the poll average. A 30-point swing in a couple of weeks is real momentum, not an illusion.

[dumptrump1]

22. momentum is actually the idea that winning a state will automatically set you up to win the next one

Bernie winning nevada in a landslide did not do that for him for sc.

[Blue_true]

27. If Biden is even close to Sanders at the end of today, it is over for Sanders.

The June states that you mentioned will be brutal for Sanders, don't count on any but maybe Rhode Island. March 17 and April 1 are going to be massively bad for Sanders, given the states voting. Sanders just does not have much left after today, Biden has all of his best states left and those states account for a large number of pledged delegates.

[dumptrump1]

31. not actually.

But the margins of delegates awarded will be key

[LizBeth]

33. No one know from the start of your Op stating we don't know, what is your guess.

Someone guesses then you argue the guess that we do not know. Interesting

[Blue_true]

26. If Biden finishes today within 200 pledged delegates of Sanders, it's over

for Sanders long term, Biden just has too many big states left. Biden has a lot of very big states left, Sanders has one big state and some medium sized ones left. Flirida and Geogia alone have 330 pledged delegates between them, Sanders will be luck to clear 15% in both states. My sense is that the contest will come to the day NY/NJ/CT/PA, if Biden doesn't end it today by getting more delegates than Sanders today, or staying within 50 delegates of Sanders today (if either happens, it's over for Sanders today).

[dumptrump1]

28. I agree it will be a bit of an uphill battle

But it won't be over for bernie. He is favored in enough big and small states that depending on the margins and delegates received, he could pull it off. But it will be close!

[Blue_true]

34. What big states left is Bernie favored in?

Really the only moderate sized states where you can say he is favored are Oregon, Washington State, Michigan, and Wisconsin, that is it. He should be favored in some more small states. Biden has Florida, Georgia, Lousiana, Illinois, New York State, New Jersey, Conneticutt, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Washington DC, and I may have missed some.

If Sanders does not very much gap Biden today, it is over for him, believe me.

[dumptrump1]

35. Right now I could tell you the states I think Bernie will win

IL, OR, WA, MI, WI, all of the small midwest states. Bernie is also favored in IL, NY, NJ, and CT. The rest are Biden's. You are right though. Obviously he needs to win in order to win. We agree on that. But Joe Biden winning only half the states today is not actually putting it away for him.

[Blue_true]

37. I seriously doubt that Sanders when any state among NY, NJ and CT.

Do you realize that those states are closely aligned to the finance and pharmaceutical industries, industries that Sanders has really demonized?

[dumptrump1]

38. which is more of a reason they will go in his favor then not.

[Blue_true]

39. You seem to be really grasping for straws. Why would people vote against their jobs? nt

[duforsure]

30. If Bernie takes Texas and California

It could be a hard thing for Biden to come back from. Bloomberg I think is trying to get something for his endorsement after spending so much. Biden would give into him before Bernie would for some kind of payoff.

[Moderateguy]

3. I would be shocked if Bernie wins TX to be honest...

It would have to mean that he really has excellent support among the Latino community.

[dumptrump1]

6. the latino community is what tipped the scale for him in nearly every state he won so far.

I thi non k it isn't crazy to think they will pull through forn hi I'm in texas.

[Mr.Bill]

19. I think it's a mistake to look too much at the Latino community

as a monolithic vote. They are actually very diverse. For instance, here in California we have many Mexican families that have been here for many generations. Some that I know are more against illegal immigration than most white people are. Another example is their LGBTQ stance. For many, even though they are registered as Democrats, their strong Catholic heritage can make them strongly against gay marriage. Gay marriage failed at the ballot box in California

I could go on, but my point is thinking all Latinos vote the same way is as wrong as thinking all Whites or Asians or any other ethnic group will vote the same way.

[dumptrump1]

23. well nationally he has been doing well in the polls among latinos

This is a national election today, so it could reflect what the polling is saying.

[Mr.Bill]

32. Actually this is not a national election.

These are individual state primaries.

[dumptrump1]

36. Carrying multiple states across the country.

With a diverse swath of the population representative of the country. Or as I call it: a national election.

[DanTex]

5. Biden will take the delegate lead, and gradually increase it into the convention.

The only thing really that could change that would be if Warren endorses Bernie, which doesn't look like it is going to happen, and it might be too late in any case.

[dumptrump1]

8. Warren losing her own state -if it happens would be a very strong case for her dropping out

I can't imagine her supporters would likely even stick with her if she does.

[dware]

11. I will say this about you DanTex.

You are pragmatic.

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

9. If Biden doesn't overtake Bernie

Which I think he will.

It will be close and with results of California at least a week out. If Bernie wins california bump will be minimal.

[beachbumbob]

10. bottom line is total vote and delegate count. A Biden was written off a week ago,

all the disappointment in results will be on the sander's side.

In CA, a sanders margin of win of less than 10% is a big Biden victory
In Texas, a biden win by 5% or more is a huge Biden victory
In NC a biden win by 15% or more is a big Biden victory
In Virginia a biden win by 10% or more is a huge Biden victory

all the others no big impact as they will be as expected


Its about momentum and I highly doubt the biden train will be slowed down as all were hoping for a week ago.

[bucolic_frolic]

12. I've posted for about 2 weeks

Bernie is a fade with not a lot of upside going forward. Voters are realizing raspy complaints play into Trump's critique of the Democratic Party, and they're tired of it.

[brooklynite]

14. People will vote. Votes will be counted

I will watch.

[Happy Hoosier]

21. Not bad calls....

... though proportions matter.

If Joe can close the gap in California, that is very bad for Bernie. If Bernie can win big in CA, he still has a shot.

My instinct (often wrong) suggest Bernie will come out ahead today, but not by enough to get him the plurality going into the convention.

[dumptrump1]

24. agreed 100%

Truth is we have no idea what is going to happen... polls only provide us with a small glimpse of what could happen, and so does 538, etc. Like many are saying, we will wait and see what happens today.

[Chainfire]

25. What I believe

Is that it will be a split decision.

Most Democrats that I know are looking for a place to hang their hats and get on with the goal of beating Trump. The quicker we unite, the harder we fight, the better.