This race needs to go on. At least for awhile longer

[Tom Rinaldo]

And I'm not saying that just because nowhere near a majority of delegates has been won by anyone yet, or because the clear majority of states have not yet had a chance to weigh in. I acknowledge that Joe Biden is now the clear front runner for the nomination, and while he is nowhere near to having it wrapped up yet he now is on a path to get there. He is on a path to win not just because he performed so well in elections last night, he is on a path to win because so many undecided voters broke for Biden in the 48 hours prior to Super Tuesday.

It's palpable. Democrats want to nominate a winner who can kick Trump out of the White House. Democrats want to rally around someone who it appears to be the leader who can do so. We want to get on with it, we want to unite and turn our attention to beating Trump. And now it seems that Democrats are mostly willing to unite behind Joe Biden to do just that. That is the main reason why there was such a strong sudden surge to Biden on Super Tuesday. There is nothing wrong with that type of reasoning. Joe Biden is a seasoned and popular figure within the Democratic Party and right now it looks like he is poised to lead our fight against Donald Trump.

But all of the above involves an element of circular thinking. It isn't that Joe Biden's positions on issues are necessarily more popular than are Bernie Sander's. Time and time again exit polls show that Democratic Party primary and caucus voters favor Medicare for All, they want an aggressive approach to fighting climate change, they view income inequality as a serious threat to our mutual prosperity etc. Biden's positions on all of these matters are clearly acceptable to Democratic voters, but not necessarily preferred. Biden is surging because of his perceived electability, and now that he is actually winning contests the odds favor him continuing to do, so as success begets success. Voters want clarity on who can best defeat Trump and the last minute indicators heading into last night were pointing toward Biden, so he reaped the benefit.

But there is a reason why Joe Biden did not do well in Iowa and New Hampshire, and why he under performed in Nevada, and not all of that was due to demographics. For a considerable period of time after he announced Joe Biden was sailing along at the top of national polling for the Democratic nomination, including doing well in the early contests. All of the top finishers in the overwhelmingly white states were white, and Biden finished behind several of them, and that's not because Biden didn't sufficiently introduce himself to voters. No one has a higher national profile with Democratic voters than the former two time Democratic Vice President. Biden faltered because confidence in his ability to win faltered, and that was because his campaign prior to the last few weeks fell short of being impressive. It is true he lacked money, but why did he lack money? The question is why were at least three other candidates raising more money than was Barack Obama's Vice President? The answer is that Joe Biden was under performing on the stump. Even many insiders sympathetic to Biden thought his early debate performances were shaky, and that his campaign events were frequently underwhelming. His campaign wasn't underfunded because there weren't potential donors available to write him checks. It was underfunded because those donors weren't confident Biden still had what it takes to win.

After his strong launch the Biden campaign really has only had a few good weeks, fortunately for him they were the
most recent ones. Biden picked a great time to hit his stride, now he needs to maintain it without stumbling. My guess is that he will, but until he can demonstrate that, this race isn't over, nor should it be. Up to now we have only had Democratic debates with a host of candidates crowding the stage. In the fall it will be one Democrat against Donald Trump, for ninety minutes of more. Unfortunately we already know that Trump will be attempting to portray Joe Biden as "past his prime", and that is putting it politely. It's crap and we all know it. Our "Uncle Joe" has made some of his semi quasi trademark "gaffes" for decades, it's nothing new and it in no way reflects on his high octane ability. But Biden's campaign did lack "spark" for much of the contest until recently. Personally, I think Biden now has kicked it into high gear, and if he can stay there he will most likely be our nominee. An essentially one on one competition with Bernie Sanders for at least a few weeks more, can demonstrate if that is true.

[lark]

1. That's kind of funny, drumpf counting on trying to portray Biden as out of touch.

High humor when it's the repug who is demented, just plain stupid and anti-science, and who can often not even read. For every trick repugs can pull, Dems can show tons of tape of drumpf doing 10x worse.

[Tom Rinaldo]

2. On a par with Trump calling Democrats "dishonest" and "corrupt"

Shrinks call it "projection" but Trump does it intentionally. I will celebrate for weeks once he is in the dustbin.

[lark]

3. i have been working on a dance for that!

I will be so happy and that needs a special celebration, one I can do and not die afterwards.

[Tom Rinaldo]

9. I might still be able to pull an all nighter, but I'm not counting on it

But I figure I could still make it into the wee hours of the morning before I conked out.

[lark]

10. Hopefully by then it will be apparent that it's time to PARTAY &

"Celebrate good times, come on, it's a celebration time. "

Need a dancing smilie -

in anticipatory glee of the salvation of our country.

OK, getting a little giddy, but I know this won't be easy and am just enjoying the good times now & storing up good feelings for the bad things that will probably come.

[relayerbob]

12. The dustbin?

Is that what they're calling Gitmo these days? :-D That's where 45 belongs

[mvd]

4. A few more weeks with a possible 2 or 3 person debate or 2 wouldn't hurt

You are right - I do think Biden will be our nominee. He really is a good guy even though I highly disagree with him on tactics and even plans.

[pampango]

7. Agreed. If Joe campaigns and debates effectively over the next few weeks,

that should wrap it up for him. Going from the 'frontrunner' on Friday to 'why don't you just give up' on Wednesday, does not make sense. If "Joe-mentum" proves to be long-lasting and not a short-term bump, then Bernie should do the right thing.

[democrattotheend]

8. I agree 100%

I'm not even supporting Bernie right now, and I even sent Joe a small donation last week, but all the calls for Bernie to drop out now, before more than half of the party gets the chance to vote, are seriously irritating me. And I find it hypocritical for Biden people to be calling for wrapping it up now when their candidate was left for dead a week ago.

If Biden gets to 1990, Bernie should drop out. Otherwise, Bernie should stay in until the end, or at least unless/until a plurality becomes mathematically impossible (as in, he wouldn't get it even if he won 100% of the remaining delegates), and then endorse Biden if Biden has a plurality.

[squirecam]

15. Here is the problem.

Michigan votes Tuesday. If Biden wins, Sanders will be desperate, as the last debate takes place only two days before Florida.

Even if Sanders won the debate, I don’t think it would change the math in Florida. Biden still wins big. But Sanders could perhaps damage the nominee by slinging as much mud as possible.

There is no reason to risk that. If this Tuesday goes as expected, and Biden wins Michigan, crushes Sanders in Mississippi, and gets a moderate win in Missouri, he will have a delegate lead that he will not relinquish, given Florida is next, and Biden is up huge there.

I think that things could possibly change. But that is all predicated on Sanders winning Michigan. If he doesn’t, there is no path to him winning the nomination. Just a long slog like 2016 that engenders bad feelings on both sides.

Trump is a direct threat to our democracy. We need to be united. Bernie needs to win Michigan, or withdraw from the race. If he wins Michigan, he could continue, but even then I expect Biden to still win Florida.

[pampango]

21. So we can't risk Biden having to debate one more time or campaign for another couple of weeks

because his opponent might be desperate. I would not have said the same about Obama or either Clinton.

There were undoubtedly Bernie supporters who were saying "Unite for the sake of our democracy" a week ago before South Carolina and Joe's dismal performance in the first 4 contests. That was ridiculous then and still is one week later.

I think Joe can handle another debate and another couple of weeks of campaigning. Perhaps I have more confidence in him than some. We don't need to protect him from Bernie's desperation and 'mudslinging' which, if true, will be immeasurably less than what he will get from Trump and the GOP in the fall. I don't believe that Joe cannot stand up to desperation and 'mudslinging', but I would like to know that in March not find out in November.

[dansolo]

22. If Bernie loses Michigan and Florida

At that point, the only purpose that would be served is to try and damage Biden, because there will be no real path to the nomination. Why would that be your goal, unless your objective is to see him lose?

[squirecam]

30. Right

Nt

[pampango]

33. If Joe does that well on the 17th and is OK at the Phoenix debate that would show me

that the past week was not an aberration but a sign that he can handle being the frontrunner and is ready to take on Trump. Then Bernie should step aside in a manner that motivates his supporters to get behind Biden.
.
I suspect that is how things will play out but none of us can predict the future precisely. But what if Joe were to fumble the debate and perform poorly in the primaries over the next couple of weeks, what then?

Bernie went from 'frontrunner' on February 29 to being asked to withdraw on March 4. As fast as things have changed this primary season, I don't think it is unreasonable to give him a couple more weeks to be convinced that Biden's surge (Joe-mentum) is for real. By March 18 Bernie should stand down if his campaign has not path to the nomination.

[DanTex]

5. K&R. Great Post. I agree entirely.

[dhill926]

6. spot on...

the general is gong to be brutal. Kitchen sink coming from the repubs...

[McKim]

11. I am Still Waiting to Hear from the Biden Campaign

So there has been a lot here calling for Sanders to drop out. Let democracy work it out through the elections. So as a Sanders supporter who also supported Warren, I am waiting with baited breath for Biden to work for my vote. What part of Warren’s and Biden’s platform will Biden incorporate? I passionately want Health Care for All, Accessible University, Better Day Care and better Education. Please, Joe, give me a good reason to vote for you besides your smile and your style. Give me some substance!!!!!

[Demsrule86]

16. Do you think Sanders would work for my vote if he was the nominee...no he wouldn't Vote blue no

matter what. I assure you Sanders would not change anything to get my vote...we should be willing to crawl across broken glass to get Trump out no matter who the candidate... I would vote for Sanders and he wouldn't have to 'earn' my vote. I would campaign for Sen.Sanders as well. I suggest you visit the Biden website...all his plans are on display...he has good plans that might actually happen.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

29. +10000

I'm tired of the "earn my vote" stuff-having a fascist in the White House is enough to get me to vote

[relayerbob]

13. The next three weeks should answer these issues

so, yes, let the process continue. We've had enough massive shifts in the landscape for one cycle already. We need a bit of predictability.

Plus, on a purely personal note, I'd like to vote, especially all of my previous choices have left the race, lol

[NCProgressive]

14. On March 17, Biden will have an insurmountable lead

Math

[Demsrule86]

17. No doubt...

[greatauntoftriplets]

31. Absolutely.

That's the date Illinois (and other states) vote. I expect Illinois to go strongly for Biden.

[Blue_true]

18. I agree.

But if Sanders don't make headway Tuesday and get beaten on March 17, need to drop out.

[Celerity]

20. He won't, and I truly hope I am proven wrong.

If he was a truly shrewd politician who actually cared about social democracy on a future-forward basis, he would surely drop out then, if for no other reason to not set himself up for truly massive blame should Biden somehow, nightmarishly, lose to Trump. His out of control non DU supporters may have already crossed the Rubicon, however, and set him up for the fall.

[Turin_C3PO]

32. I think when it comes down to it,

Bernie will work harder this time to bring his supporters around to Biden. Last time 12% of his voters sat out, voted third party or voted Trump. I expect that number to be lower this time as the threat of Trump looms. I know polls show many Sanders voters not supporting Biden in the general but I predict most of that is primary hurt feelings that will be healed by November.

[ramen]

19. Thank you nt

[OnDoutside]

23. I remember a time when Sanders supporters were demanding Biden get out of the way. Talk about

the shoe being on the other foot !

The moral of this is : "Be nice to the people on the way up, as you might meet them on the way down."

[Tom Rinaldo]

24. I remember a time when Democrats thought it was wrong to generalize about people

It wasn't "Sanders supporters" who wrote this OP, it was me, Tom, and I have never demanded that Biden get out of the way. My Journal shows the contrary if you have any doubt. What I wrote here stands on its own and either has merit, or it doesn't, based on what is written.

[OnDoutside]

26. Ah yes, I remember when "Sanders supporters" didn't call Black voters "Low Information voters" ...

Oh wait.

I remember Sanders say in 2016 that a plurality wasn't enough at the convention, while in 2020 he was saying it was....well until Super Tuesday anyway.

[Tom Rinaldo]

27. I also remember when we used to vote on candidates, not on a subset of their alleged supporters

There were some nuances regarding 2016, involving one candidate piling up hundreds of super delegate votes before a single vote was cast, but you have a point. However, with the delegate lead now in Biden's favor, Sanders just repeated in an interview with Rachel that he still believes whoever enters the convention with a delegate plurality should get the nomination, and the odds now favor that being Biden. So he is not taking a self serving position, he thinks the primaries should determine the nominee this year, before Super Delegates vote, even if it is Biden with a plurality.

[BeyondGeography]

25. It should be clear by now that Joe is the stumble-proof Teflon candidate of the moment

True, many of those in the opening states who saw him close-up turned thumbs-down, but we’re in a post-campaign media narrative-driven environment, whatever that is.

Personally, I feel Trump has dumbed everything down, including campaigns. This whole thing has been about electability, the only issue that rose to some-level of significance has been MFA, and that was used to bring candidates down (Warren) or leveraged to increase perceived electability (Buttigieg). The things that made Trump possible in the first place, ie the issues that Bernie has been emphasizing with mind-numbing repetitiveness, have been subsumed by Trump himself.

Only one thing matters, beat Trump. Biden’s comps v. Trump remained strong even when he was struggling. Now that he’s ahead with basically 2/3 of the party behind him, plus Bloomberg’s money, what’s to stop him? He has already displayed levels of ineptitude in the debates that would have been fatal in most any other environment, so forget debates. Trump has already shot his wad with Burisma, so forget tantalizing new “revelations.” Money is cascading in, so forget fundraising problems. Biden is going to win.

The only real remaining drama is how will Sanders respond to this reality. Going forward, he will lose most everywhere and he will lose big more often than not. His Party of One culture and the alienation of others that accompanies it means he will have few defenders outside the die-hards when times go from tough to hopeless, which will happen very soon (post March 17). I’m interested to see how or if that registers with him and hoping against hope that he will show something resembling magnanimity and leadership when the time comes to pull together. A guy can dream.

[Tom Rinaldo]

28. You make some good points, and the end game might arrive sooner than it did last time around

I still disagree with your conclusion as it currently stands though. I want to see the results from Michigan for one thing, but even more important, I want to see the one on one debate between Biden and Sanders the week after. After that I may entertain your hypothesis, depending on those developments. We are talking about less than two weeks, there is no logical basis for a stampede to the exits during that time frame. I stand by my current opinion.