Bluewater told us all those states with so many Black voters would matter.

[bluewater]

Yes, I am pointing out how right I was.



Remember YESTERDAY when I pointed this out:

=============================================
If Biden can't win Super Tuesday, He won't win the 2020 Nomination
The reason?

Super Tuesday is heavy in states with a very large percentage of African American voters, Biden's core of support:

Alabama 28% of state residents are African Americans
North Carolina 24%
Virginia 21%
Tennessee 18%
Arkansas 17%
Texas 14%

Oklahoma, California and Minnesota also have significant African American populations:

Oklahoma 9%
California 8%
Minnesota 8%

https://blackdemographics.com/population/black-state-population/

That is 9 of the 15 jurisdictions holding primaries on Super Tuesday.

If Biden cannot win on Super Tuesday where 9 of the 15 jurisdictions have large percentages of African American voters, well, he simply can't win the nomination.
===================================================


It seems I called all those states with large African American voter numbers correctly. Yep, little old Bluewater actually looked at the demographics and saw pretty much how Super Tuesday was going to play out.

I pointed out that Biden has no excuse not to win the most delegates on Super Tuesday because so many of the primaries had large black electorates. Throw in Sanders and Warren splitting the vote in Massachusetts, and the result were in line with what I expected.

And, as the race collapsed to a two person matchup, what did we see? Um, A close race for delegates?


So, like everyone else, I am waiting for the final California numbers to see who actually won Super tuesday.

But what about the race going forward? I expect it to be a close hard fought struggle:

Link to tweet

Time will Tell.

[Tarheel_Dem]

1. tHe rESulTs aRE WhAT tHe rESulTs aRE.

[bluewater]

3. And we don't know what the results are yet. No final delegate counts.

But we will see.

Looks like it might be as close as 50-100 delegates either way at this point.

[Tarheel_Dem]

20. If Kornacki's math is correct, the next round of primaries will favor Biden immensely, and....

make it all but impossible for BS, or anyone else, to come back. I know this is hard for you and your cracked crystal ball, but Biden put up nearly a million vote surplus on the board yesterday. There's no getting around the fact that the BS campaign banked heavily on ST. He went into ST the front runner, and if the numbers hold, he'll be lucky to hang on.

BS was favored to win MA, MN & ME and got the surprise of his campaign. That's why he's out with the very ugly ads first thing this morning. BS hasn't expanded his appeal from 2016. In fact, the results show he's doing much worse.

[awesomerwb1]

5. Oh My GoSh!!

YoU aRe So RiGhT!!!

[HarlanPepper]

11. That's been replaced with

“Time will tell” as the new cliche.

[zackymilly]

16. ⏰⏱⏲ nt

[Tarheel_Dem]

25. Someone has mastered the art of goalpost moving. Ain't it grand?

[bluewater]

34. LOL Seems some people are upset that I was right YESTERDAY. The Black electorate was the key.

And yet, soooo many people can't find it in themselves to say "You were right, Bluewater. You told us the Black electorate in all those states was going to make Biden the favorite to win Super Tuesday. We didn't listen to you, but you were right."




Seriously though, I am still waiting for the final delegate totals to see who actually won Super Tuesday.

[Tarheel_Dem]

35. "tIMe wILL tELL"!!!!

[Midnightwalk]

37. Where did you predict the result?

Here’s what I think you said:

If Biden cannot win on Super Tuesday where 9 of the 15 jurisdictions have large percentages of African American voters, well, he simply can't win the nomination.

It's that straight forward.

But I expect there will be spin from the Biden Campaign when he is behind in delegates on Super Tuesday. It's won't matter though in the long run.

That doesn’t sound like a prediction that Biden would win.

[bluewater]

41. Um, I think I explained EXTENSIVELY why I thought Biden was the favorite on Super Tuesday.

Perhaps you missed this?

Remember YESTERDAY when I pointed this out:

=============================================
If Biden can't win Super Tuesday, He won't win the 2020 Nomination
The reason?

Super Tuesday is heavy in states with a very large percentage of African American voters, Biden's core of support:

Alabama 28% of state residents are African Americans
North Carolina 24%
Virginia 21%
Tennessee 18%
Arkansas 17%
Texas 14%

Oklahoma, California and Minnesota also have significant African American populations:

Oklahoma 9%
California 8%
Minnesota 8%

https://blackdemographics.com/population/black-state-population/

That is 9 of the 15 jurisdictions holding primaries on Super Tuesday.

If Biden cannot win on Super Tuesday where 9 of the 15 jurisdictions have large percentages of African American voters, well, he simply can't win the nomination.
===================================================

Honestly, it's hard to misinterpret all THAT, right?

Sorry, I have to go back to taking my VICTORY LAP for being the most accurate pundit on Super Tuesday, at least here on DU.

[Midnightwalk]

42. Nope that's not a prediction

If he lost you could also claim you were right about it being a devastating loss.

That’s not what I’d call an amazing prediction.

[bluewater]

43. Nice strawman (argument) you got there. lol

Back to me taking my VICTORY LAP for being THE MOST ACCURATE PUNDIT about Super Tuesday!

[Tarheel_Dem]

48. "That's not what I'd call an amazing prediction." And you would be right. 👌

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

55. Yup yup... we'll see who gets the last laugh! Something tells me it'll be Bennie and HIS supporters!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

[squirecam]

58. Because it wasnt

It was a prediction he’d lose.

[beachbumbob]

2. next round of primaries have same or near same demographics,

who has been dissed by trump and GOP as well? Hispanic/latinos

who do you think came out in droves on tuesday in texas to vote for Biden?

[LakeArenal]

4. The same in all the past elections.

2018 we won the same way.

[Hav]

6. Oh come on

You posted it to create a narrative with the expectation that Biden would do a lot worse than yesterday. Many didn't expect it, partly because the polls lagged a bit behind. Many expected BS to win that election day, especially with a strong result in CA.
But Biden didn't just do well in the diverse states, he overperformed everywhere.

[HarlanPepper]

10. Otherwise known as a fail. A great big fail.

[bluewater]

14. lol the facts are what the facts are. The Black voters made ALL the difference last night.

Don't shoot the messenger.

[HeartlandProgressive]

7. Credit where credit is Due. Bluewater called this correctly.

[HarlanPepper]

8. Oh god, now in the third person

[bluewater]

12. Shameless self promotioanl NEUROMARKETING clickbait, baby!

A message is often best remembered if delivered in an entertaining manner.

[HarlanPepper]

13. You've nailed the entertaining part

I love unintentional comedy.

[bluewater]

15. lol Good old Bluewater nailed the importance of the Black electorate.

And yet SOME people just can't admit that.

[Demsrule86]

18. I admit it...damn your eyes (kidding).

[Demsrule86]

22. +100000

[greenjar_01]

9. ROFL

Ouchies.

[Demsrule86]

17. You are smarter than me bluewater,I mean I knew about the Black vote and all but I was worried going

in and shocked at the result.

[bluewater]

19. But who actually won Super Tuesday? And by how much?

It will be interesting to see the final delegate totals from last night.

Every delegate counts from here on in.

The race has collapsed into a two person contest, that was evident yesterday.

But who actually won Super Tuesday? And by how much?

[Demsrule86]

21. I say Biden by about 50...based on Kornacki...but I think by the time we know, we will have moved on

with Joementum...I see very little chance for Sanders looking at the map. And victory surpassing expectations mean a great deal as we saw with Caroliina.

[bluewater]

23. And with a volatile electorate, wild swings seem to be common this year.

It will be interesting to see if the upcoming one-on-one debates create similar wild swings in voters' decisions.

Time will Tell.

[Demsrule86]

26. I would be lying if I said I had any idea what will happen...I know what I want to happen...and I

would point out that Joe grew the electorate but Sanders has less support then last time. I also believe if you can't win AA vote, you can't be our nominee...just saying.

[bluewater]

32. The so called "Halo Effect" will play a huge role going forward.

It's more than evident that being President Obama's VP for eight years has helped Biden enormously.

That's why I told everyone YESTERDAY that Biden should have been the favorite to win Super Tuesday.

But will the "halo effect" be enough?

I am not sure. But based on how close Super Tuesday actually was, I think we are in for a long contest between two strong candidates.

[Demsrule86]

36. I agree with what you say...but the coming states are not good states for Sanders....

and when he hits Florida disaster IMHO...but what do I know...I missed the Biden surge entirely...holding out hope that Sanders wouldn't win by too much yesterday.

[onenote]

24. I recall you saying that Biden would have to spin the outcome

Seems like you're the one doing the spinning.

Biden won every one of the states you said he should do well in, except California, where he is doing better than most people expected.
Biden also won Massachusetts and Minnesota, two states that didn't factor into your original post. And Biden may yet win Maine, another state you apparently didn't give him a shot at winning.

Bernie did not win a single state that he wasn't expected to win (and he lost a few that you apparently expected him to win). And where he won, he didn't exactly blow the doors off. He won Vermont, his home state, but with a ridiculous falloff in the percentage of support from 2016 (86% to barely 50%).

So spin away. But Sanders has been knocked onto his heels.

[still_one]

27. +++

[bluewater]

28. The final results are not even in and yet people are "spinning" for Joe

I pointed out how the demographics FAVORED Biden Winning Super Tuesday.

I posted those demographics.

I went on the RECORD yesterday before voting.

How is me reminding people of this "spinning" anything today?!?

Pardon me for being correct.

As for the actual winner of Super Tuesday, the final delegate totals are not in yet, but it looks like it is going to be fairly close either way.

And yes, now AS I PREDICTED people are trying to say Biden had some sort of huge upset even though the actual delegate totals will be close.

Biden should have won Super Tuesday based on the demographics of the Black electorate in so many of the states. I said this yesterday.

He might very well win Super Tuesday yet, but we will need to see the final delegate totals to know.

[Demsrule86]

38. In my defense, I would say one thing. If you look, I have said more than once that our

nominee must have AA support...but I still missed yesterday.

[peggysue2]

29. x1000, onenote!

[still_one]

31. Actually if it wasn't for Bloomberg, Biden very likely would have won California. Just look at the

numbers

[NCProgressive]

46. and Buttigieg's late exit

6.3% of the vote was already banked for Buttigieg before his endorsement.

[NCProgressive]

30. jOe BiDeN wOn

[bluewater]

33. Great! share that link to fthe final delegate totals please! There is one, right?

[NCProgressive]

44. I'm prescient ... no need for a link.

Just believe.

[bluewater]

49. .

[ismnotwasm]

39. You know.

I am a little confused. This was simply an expectation. Not a prediction.


Of course Black votes matters. If course states with high numbers of Black voters were going to Biden. The numbers have been solid throughout.

[bluewater]

40. "This was simply an expectation. Not a prediction."

A distinction without a difference, perhaps?

Seems so.




C'mon, this is where everyone should be saying "You were right, Bluewater. You looked at the demographics and pointed out how important the Black electorate was going to be in sooooo many Super Tuesday states."

[ismnotwasm]

45. Who was arguing with you though

[bluewater]

47. Who brought up "arguing"?

Not me. I am enjoying my victory lap!

[ismnotwasm]

52. Ok, I'm still confused

Who disagreed with your assessment?

[bluewater]

54. Well, people YESTERDAY certainly did. Here, look at that thread.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287617182

But why did you bring up "arguing" today?

I'm confused by that.





I need to get back to taking my VICTORY LAP for being the most accurate pundit about Super Tuesday.

[ismnotwasm]

56. Because in my view, as I said well...let me rephrase this

Your stated opinion is simply common sense backed by pretty good math. I don’t know why people would dispute it. And perhaps argue was a poor choice of word.

It doesn’t look as though people were disagreeing with the idea that Biden would do well among Black voters, and more the phasing of a larger opinion on the Super Tuesday matter.

Anyway, enjoy your victory lap. Sure. No harm, no foul

[bluewater]

57. "I don't know why people would dispute it" and yet, amazingly enough, people did. ;)

Here's that thread from yesterday again:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287617182#post21


I firmly believe I was the ONLY person here on DU that in anyway stated, implied, insinuated, prognosticated or in anyway projected that Biden should have been favored to win on Super Tuesday.

But, hey, there is enough glory to go around... if I missed someone else that did so YESTERDAY or before, post a link and we should all give them credit also!


There is plenty of room on this VICTORY LAP!

[ismnotwasm]

59. Should have been favored?

Ok, I admit it; GDP is awful imo, and I mostly stay out of it, but are you saying you are the only person that predicted Joe Biden would do well on Super Tuesday? Or “should have been favored?”

Cause I just assumed he would do well, but then I’ve always assumed he would be the nominee. Sorry if you felt alone.

[bluewater]

60. I am sorry to hear that you think this forum is "awful"

"ismnotwasm: Ok, I admit it; GDP is awful imo"

I am sorry that you feel this way.

Did you have some bad experience here to engender such a vivid negative opinion of this forum?

Personally, I enjoy participating in discussions and engaging other DUers while we discuss the primaries and really appreciate the opportunity to do so that this forum provides.


To each their own, I suppose.


Enjoy your day.

[ismnotwasm]

62. You do?

Then why the “victory” lap? It seems like someone hurt your feelings. I must have misunderstood, I am very sorry if that’s the case.

I will look forward to your future posts then, if discussion is your goal.


And no, no particular experience, just a general feeling. Besides, I have many places I discuss politics. But, Since I am undecided, (I have 5 more days to decide) GDP is not the place for me...other than occasionally.

When I feel like it.

[HeartlandProgressive]

63. Bluewater for the win!

You should teach a masterclass in this type of thing.

[msongs]

50. it takes no genius to point out what everybody already knows :-) nt

[NCProgressive]

51. Where is the fun in not showcasing one's brilliant mind to all of DU?

[bluewater]

53. lol Funny how when I posted this YESTERDAY, so many people here disagreed.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287617182

Why even the television pundits were expressing surprise last night that Biden was doing so well.

They should have had me on one of their panels to explain the demographics to them

But pardon me...

I have to get back to my VICTORY LAP for being the most accurate pundit on Super Tuesday!

[William769]

61. Mama warned me of people that talk in the third person.

She said they are not stable and to walk away.

This is me walking away.

[bluewater]

64. It's NEUROMARKETING, baby!

Hey, I am a shameless clickbaiter.

And we all know how important "branding" is in marketing, and this forum is a marketplace for ideas.

Thanks for bumping the thread.