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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Wed Mar 4, 2020, 01:16 PM

 

Winning a majority of the votes cast...

Sanders barely won a majority in VT.
There are two candidates in the moderate lane
He would have won by a majority in CO if Warren was not there.


Biden won a majority in SC, VA and AL.
In SC the moderate lane had 4 candidates, in VA and AL the moderate lane had 2.
Biden would have won by a majority in TN, AK, OK and NC if it had not been for Bloomberg.

It seems to me that over 50% of democratic primary voters in 7 states were in the moderate lane and over 50% of the primary voters in two states were in the progressive lane. So a reasonable argument can be made that a majority of democratic voters are not progressives.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Reply Winning a majority of the votes cast... (Original post)
Moderateguy Mar 2020 OP
CentralMass Mar 2020 #1
Moderateguy Mar 2020 #2
NurseJackie Mar 2020 #3
2naSalit Mar 2020 #5
CentralMass Mar 2020 #4
democrattotheend Mar 2020 #6

Response to Moderateguy (Original post)

Wed Mar 4, 2020, 01:20 PM

1. Bernie won Vermont by 28.8 points . That is considered a landslide.

 


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to CentralMass (Reply #1)

Wed Mar 4, 2020, 01:30 PM

2. A majority is 50% of the votes cast plus 1.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Moderateguy (Reply #2)

Wed Mar 4, 2020, 01:32 PM

3. Numbers are hard... so... here! Maybe this will help! ;-)

 


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to NurseJackie (Reply #3)

Wed Mar 4, 2020, 01:52 PM

5. +++

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Moderateguy (Reply #2)

Wed Mar 4, 2020, 01:40 PM

4. These arguments are ridiculous. Bernie recieved 50.8% of the vote, Biden recieved 22%.

 

By any measure in politics that is a landside.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Moderateguy (Original post)

Wed Mar 4, 2020, 02:28 PM

6. To be fair

 

Most of the places Bloomberg took votes from Biden were red states we won't win in the fall - TN, AR, OK, and AL for sure, and TX and NC are reaches for us.

Warren also got more votes than Bloomberg in Maine, Massachusetts, Vermont, Minnesota and Virginia. Bernie probably would have won the Maine, Massachusetts and maybe Minnesota if Warren hadn't been on the ballot. But he would have done worse in a lot of other states if Bloomberg had not been on the ballot.

OTOH, I am not assuming all of Warren's voters would go to Bernie - probably about 60%. Probably about 80-90% of Bloomberg's voters had Biden as their second choice, so Bernie will probably do worse going forward in a 2-person race unless he can expand his base of support.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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