Democratic Primaries

bluewater

(5,376 posts) Wed Mar 4, 2020, 03:28 PM Mar 2020

G. Elliott Morris: Bernie's strength was coming from a fractured field.

Link to tweet

Morris is one of the rising stars among data journalists, and I have posted his analyses many times in the past.

I don't always agree with his opinions, but when he sticks to the data, he is one of the best.

He's been saying that the data shows the 2020 General Election is going to be very close and that the Democratic nominee will have to win back swing voters to prevail.

That said, it will be interesting to see a Biden vs Sanders face-off in Michigan on March 10th.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

5 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

G. Elliott Morris: Bernie's strength was coming from a fractured field. (Original Post) bluewater Mar 2020 OP

Yes it will be close. squirecam Mar 2020 #1

I think Michigan will tell the tale. bluewater Mar 2020 #3

Yes, we all have been saying this. The voice of the blue wave was divided by 5 and Sanders had LizBeth Mar 2020 #2

the most important part of this post stopdiggin Mar 2020 #4

Yes, the 3/10 debate will set the tone for the rest of the primary. Sunlei Mar 2020 #5

squirecam

(2,706 posts)

1. Yes it will be close.

Reply to bluewater (Original post)

Wed Mar 4, 2020, 03:34 PM

Mar 2020

We need the midwest. We can’t count on FL or GA due to voter purges.

Biden currently leads in Michigan. I expect most Bloomberg votes to go to him, increasing his lead.

Joe/Amy 2020.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

bluewater

(5,376 posts)

3. I think Michigan will tell the tale.

Reply to squirecam (Reply #1)

Wed Mar 4, 2020, 03:50 PM

Mar 2020

I expect my preferred candidate will be out of the race by Michigan, and it will be a straight up face-off between Biden and Sanders for a state in the industrial Mid-West.

It's another one of those "no excuses" moments.

Michigan demographics:

White 79.3%
Black 14.1% <-- higher than the national average of 12.7% by a little
Latino 5.2% <-- lower than the national average of 16.7% by a lot

Age 65+ 17.2% <-- 16.03% is the national average

Whose message will prevail in Michigan?

Time will Tell.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

LizBeth

(9,952 posts)

2. Yes, we all have been saying this. The voice of the blue wave was divided by 5 and Sanders had

Reply to bluewater (Original post)

Wed Mar 4, 2020, 03:35 PM

Mar 2020

his revolution.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

stopdiggin

(11,377 posts)

4. the most important part of this post

Reply to bluewater (Original post)

Wed Mar 4, 2020, 03:59 PM

Mar 2020

"it is going to be close, and the Democratic nominee will have to win back swing states"

the "blue wave" doesn't help us much if it's all happening in BLUE states. the electoral college still says we have to turn red states blue .. or Trump wins again.

back to the OP .. the Sanders ceiling and the fractured vote was ALWAYS the story of this primary.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Sunlei

(22,651 posts)

5. Yes, the 3/10 debate will set the tone for the rest of the primary.

Reply to bluewater (Original post)

Wed Mar 4, 2020, 04:02 PM

Mar 2020

I hope they work together. No matter who wins the primary.

Sanders will have to move more towards the center and Biden more towards left field to meld the voters.

Important also to choose their VPs now.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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