After Super Tuesday, Joe Biden Is A Clear Favorite To Win The Nomination

[George II]

After a huge night on Super Tuesday — and with all his major opponents1 except Sen. Bernie Sanders having dropped out — former Vice President Joe Biden is a strong favorite to win the Democratic nomination, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast.

We’d encourage you to approach the forecast with a bit of caution for the next few days until we have new polling and a better sense of what the post-Super Tuesday landscape looks like. There are several uncertainties to keep in mind:

-Many states, especially California, are not yet done counting their votes. In California, the results could shift significantly based on late-returned mail ballots. Under the state’s rules, ballots only need to have been mailed out by election day, so millions of votes are literally still in the mail.

- Two candidates, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, have just dropped out, and while the model makes some educated guesses about where their support will go, it may be wrong about that.

- Super Tuesday itself could have a substantial effect on the polls — most likely in the form of a bounce for Biden. The model, again, makes educated guesses about the size of these bounces. But those guesses may not be right: Biden got a much bigger South Carolina bounce than is typical for that state, for example; while Sanders got little, if any, bounce after winning Nevada when the model expected him to get one.

- Making matters trickier, it’s also not entirely clear what the race was like prior to Super Tuesday because Biden’s ascent in the polls was quite rapid and there were few national polls during this period.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/after-super-tuesday-joe-biden-is-a-clear-favorite-to-win-the-nomination/

[Turin_C3PO]

1. He's gonna wrap it up soon,

and I, for one, can’t wait! I hate the primaries because of the infighting among Democrats and am looking forward to us uniting!

[Demsrule86]

3. I agree hoping it is over by mid March.

[Demsrule86]

2. All very good points... K&R

[NCProgressive]

4. Boom!!! KnR

[Vogon_Glory]

5. It ain't over 'til it's over

But I feel hopeful.

I look forward to the time we can set our intra-party quarreling aside and turn to the more important matter of beating Donald Trump and the Republicans.

[Iliyah]

6. My mouth kept flying open with each state win . . . .

I was really shocked, and assume he may win at least, ummm, 7 states. The pass polling had him losing Texas and not even viable in California.

Also, the fire wall held up bigly in SC but was hearing that was a flute. But alas, it was not