10 days that reshaped the Democratic presidential race

[William769]

(CNN)As the returns rolled in on Super Tuesday, Joe Biden's aides were flabbergasted.

Huddled at their headquarters in Philadelphia and snacking on candy carted in from the nearby "Nuts to You," Biden's campaign was braced for a long night of election results, according to a senior member of the campaign staff.

The team was cautiously optimistic after a resounding victory in South Carolina and a subsequent consolidation of the moderate wing of the party behind the former vice president. But their goals were still modest: Run up the margin as much as possible in most of the Southern states, and stay competitive in Texas and California.

Not only was the campaign meeting those goals, it was notching victories in places where resources had been withdrawn and field staff had been redeployed, like Massachusetts and Minnesota, and later Maine. There was no television in the conference room where Biden's senior aides were holding the hourly meeting. But with each win, a loud cheer would erupt from the aides in the press area and at the front of the office, interrupting the meeting as everyone ran to the television screens to catch the latest victory.

Just a few days earlier, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders was the race's undisputed front-runner. Biden's campaign appeared ill-equipped to pull off the comeback necessary to win. The fractured field of six top candidates seemed poised to split delegates on Super Tuesday, setting up the possibility of a contested convention.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/politics/2020-election-democratic-primary/index.html

[LaurenOlimina]

1. It will be studied for years.

[TwilightZone]

2. Might have all started with one tweet.

Sanders rather ill-advised "you can't stop me" tweet might have been a catalyst, though Biden was showing signs of moving up in the polls and he was always going to win SC.

Because of some odd choices (like 538's model factoring in the highly-unlikely possibility that Biden would drop out before SC), the race looked much more settled than it really was.

[brush]

45. Several threads here advised Biden's supporters to relax after the...

first 3 state contests. Nothing could be decided before SC and other southern states with large African American populations had their say.

Sanders' obnoxious "you can't stop me" remark shows how full of himself he was and how he misread the zeitgeist of the nation and mislead his followers with his naivete in thinking the country and party would elect a socialist.

[DarthDem]

51. I hadn't heard about 538

But it's no surprise to hear that they factored in. By being wrong.

Go Joe!!

[TwilightZone]

52. Yeah, I noticed it in one of their articles.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-biden-hasnt-exactly-collapsed-since-new-hampshire/

"Ever since he finished fourth in Iowa, Biden has no longer been the favorite in South Carolina, according to our model. Sanders currently has a 1 in 2 (47 percent) chance of winning South Carolina, while Biden has a 2 in 5 (37 percent) shot. However, part of the reason our model has Sanders as the favorite is that it thinks Biden could drop out before South Carolina even votes. In the scenarios where Biden is still in the race come Feb. 29, though, he is probably still favored in the Palmetto State."

[DarthDem]

53. Geez

Their attempted punditry is horrible. Just awful.

[sheshe2]

3. In these times we are down to two candidates.

I loved most of them, yet we are at two. Fact is Joe is the one that can unite us. He has a calming voice and can correct the wrongs.

Once again Dems are coming in to pick up the shattered pieces that the GOP once again left behind. They have destroyed everything good. You have to fix what is broken before you can make any new agenda work.

Go Joe.

[William769]

4. ...

[sheshe2]

5. ...

[BidenBacker]

12. Problem is

every time a Dem gets in the White House it takes 'em most of their 8 years to fix all the shit that Goppers broke before that.

Then a Republican gets into office again and they start breaking a whole bunch of new shit all over again.

Getting kinda tired of constantly being on the cleanup crew.

[sheshe2]

14. Yep.

*Sigh*

[question everything]

31. This is because Democratic presidents have only two years with a Democratic Congress

Clinton lost the House in 1994 to Gingrich "contract with America" and Obama lost it in 2010 because of Obamacare.

And this is another thing that irks me: the Republicans see everything in black and right in the "Me Tarzan You Jane." So they come with these catchy slogans "Contract with America," "Make American Great Again." They don't mean much but they work

[BidenBacker]

44. Bingo

Was thinking about that just last night. Even the Senate "supermajority" the Dems had when Obama took office didn't last for a full 2 years. They actually barely had it for a few months. Franken didn't get sworn in until early July because that asshole Coleman sued and kept it in the courts for many months. Kennedy was real sick and died shortly after that...and they had to wheel Byrd in for votes as well since he was very ill, too. Then Scott Brown won the special election to replace Kennedy in early 2010 and that was the end of that. Thanks a lot, MA....WTF were you thinking???

Throw in recesses and the Dems had only an extremely narrow window to get Obamacare passed. But of course ignorant Republicans who don't know shit about history much less anything else say "hey, you guys had a supermajority for 2 whole years and didn't get anything done."

[Cha]

46. They just lie about it 'cause they know their cult will accept it.

Throw in recesses and the Dems had only an extremely narrow window to get Obamacare passed. But of course ignorant Republicans who don't know shit about history much less anything else say "hey, you guys had a supermajority for 2 whole years and didn't get anything done."

[question everything]

54. Right. On these pages I expressed my wish for Kennedy to resign to fill his position

but was told that he should step down when he would feel like it.

He had a stroke on inauguration day and was missing after that. In the euphoria that followed the Obama elections we could have had another D from MA. Martha Coakley, probably, though she still carried the stain of the supposedly child care sex scandal.

[BidenBacker]

58. Well

We did have a temporary Dem Senator from MA who replaced Kennedy and then voted for the ACA. But then they had a special election to get a voter-approved one and that's when Brown got in there. MA voting for a Republican to replace Ted Kennedy of all people which then cost us our supermajority is just inexplicably mindboggling.

I dunno...it often seems like we Democrats are snakebit...and when there are no snakes around we're shooting ourselves in the foot.

[Cha]

47. It means less than zero.

[R B Garr]

13. Agreed , she. Biden's experience will be so welcome.

[sheshe2]

18. Yes, R B.

A calm head, one that is well known and respected by all the leaders of the free world. Once again we have to clean house from the bottom up.

[R B Garr]

23. Biden's Coronavirus presser gave me hope that we can

have our normal lives again, a functioning government that we can rely on instead of these toxic extremes. He was so presidential. So reliable. He actually gave me hope. I’m so happy to see millions rushing to get behind Biden now...this article is so good.

[Demsrule86]

6. Excellent article. Thank you...K&R

[William769]

7. You're welcome.

[Beakybird]

8. It's because of the patriotism of Buttigieg and Klobuchar.

Or they saw the writing on the wall. But they endorsed a uniter. They could have declined to endorse or endorse a divider.

[William769]

9. They saw the bigger picture.

[Indykatie]

22. No One Can Win Dem Nomination Without AA Support - Pete, Amy and Liz Were Getting Less Than 5%

They saw the writing on the wall and were smart enough to know that Bernie would get to the convention with the most delegates but not a majority if they all stayed in. In that scenario it would be hard to withhold the nomination from him without fracturing the party.

[betsuni]

10. And here Bernie thought it was going to be a Ten Days That Shook the World type revolution.

[William769]

11. Must be groundhog day for Bernie.

[ucrdem]

15. Yep. He got handed another one-way ticket to Palookaville.

[Cha]

17. I really appreciate these snippets!

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287667114#post16

[sheshe2]

27. So. Still...

Searchin' for 'his' lost shaker of salt?

[R B Garr]

24. Yes, he was looking for his 30% to be a wedge,

but he’s getting boxed out by voters instead, and fast.

[Cha]

16. As the returns rolled in on Super Tuesday, Joe Biden's aides were flabbergasted.

lol.. as were many others! lol I'm still pinching myself. ouch.

What a great exciting article to relive What Happened! I love reading analysis like this when there's such a beautiful outcome.. Mahalo, Bill!

A few snippets I like especially..

The speed of the consolidation of the moderate wing around Biden stunned the entire political universe, including the Sanders team.

Before Klobuchar and Buttigieg exited the race, Sanders advisers believed they were well positioned for Super Tuesday wins in Massachusetts, Maine, Minnesota and even Texas, where Sanders had planted an early flag.

But the coalescence behind Biden was so fast and widespread, there wasn't even enough time to shift plans or ad buys before Super Tuesday.

The Sanders campaign was so bullish about their prospects that they ramped up their efforts in South Carolina -- Biden's firewall -- placing a late $500,000 ad buy in South Carolina with the hope they could keep the race close, with a high single-digit margin.

They were so sure.

I'm going to post this first and then read the rest of the article.. Thank You, William!

[ucrdem]

19. Super Tuesday was the most awesome election EVER

I went out to vote for Joe and when I came back he'd won four more states including Minnestoa!!!

[Cha]

20. What A DAY or Two! And, who said Joe Biden isn't

"exciting"? Just about all the pundits.. it's a meme that got Destroyed on the Super Spectacular Tuesdays!

Mahalo, ucr!

[R B Garr]

26. +1000, you could feel the ground shifting!

[sheshe2]

29. I can feel the earth move under my feet.

[R B Garr]

48. Perfect! It was a stampede!

[R B Garr]

25. This article is fantastic. So hopeful and you can

feel the solidarity,

Hi Cha

[Cha]

35. Yes! It's exaclty what happened and Maeve Reston worded

it so delightfully well! It's like we were there all over again.. I can never get enough of that.

From the disappointment of the earlier caucus states and NH to now has been a glorious roller coaster ride.. We knew what it felt like to hang in there and wait for South Carolina.. Bless James Clyburn and Jannie Jones!

On Feb. 21, Ms. Jones attended the funeral of James White, Mr. Clyburn’s accountant. After serving as an usher at the service at St. John Baptist Church in Hopkins, S.C., Ms. Jones noticed Mr. Clyburn standing against a nearby wall. On the spur of the moment, she said, she waved him over, with a crook of her finger, to the pew where she was sitting.

He leaned over, and she whispered, “I need to know who you’re going to vote for.” He replied: “Joe Biden. Are we together?”

“When it’s politics, you don’t know who for who,’’ she recalled. But she said she gave him a thumbs up and then asked: “What are you going to do for him, for the people?”

https://upload.democraticunderground.com/1287648915

Aloha, RB

[R B Garr]

49. Love this. Thanks Cha!

That is a powerful story.

[Cha]

56. It's like we owe them a debt of

undying gratitude as they say.. and I've never said this before.

[comradebillyboy]

21. Just as Jesus raised Lazrus from the dead, Jim Clyburn

resurrected Joe Biden's campaign.

[Cha]

30. lol.. somebody asked jokingly if anything

had happened over the weekend of the SC vote.. and someone said.. Lazarus came back from the dead.

Indeed a miracle and Thank you, James Clyburn and Jannie Jones.

On Feb. 21, Ms. Jones attended the funeral of James White, Mr. Clyburn’s accountant. After serving as an usher at the service at St. John Baptist Church in Hopkins, S.C., Ms. Jones noticed Mr. Clyburn standing against a nearby wall. On the spur of the moment, she said, she waved him over, with a crook of her finger, to the pew where she was sitting.

He leaned over, and she whispered, “I need to know who you’re going to vote for.” He replied: “Joe Biden. Are we together?”

“When it’s politics, you don’t know who for who,’’ she recalled. But she said she gave him a thumbs up and then asked: “What are you going to do for him, for the people?”

https://upload.democraticunderground.com/1287648915

[ucrdem]

37. Love that story!

Thank you Jannie Jones!!

[Cha]

40. I know.. I could read it over and over again!

Mahalo, Jannie Jones and God Bless America!

[question everything]

28. And this is where I disagree: Sanders should have never been the "undisputed front runner"

Not with about 50 delegates. And I hope that this is one lesson we've learned. That winning two small states which are not representative of the country as a whole, and a caucus state which, again, is in the minority, do not make a "front runner."

[ucrdem]

32. You have to admit it looked grim for a couple of weeks.

There were polls flying around showing Bernie winning SC, Biden getting shut out of CA, Biden winning no states on Super Tuesday. And then came South Carolina and that was the end of the glorious revolution.

[question everything]

33. Agree. It looked grim. But to consider 50 delegates out of 1990 was, in my opinion

presumptuous. And we got into Catch-22. It looked grim and we lost our hope.

[ucrdem]

34. I think we were still hoping for the best while expecting the worst.

Having been through a few elections it gets to be a habit.

[GulfCoast66]

41. No. I was not worried. Well too much. Ok. Some.

But if you don’t have the Base of our part, African Americans you cannot win. As a southerner I knew Bernie was going to get jack shit of their vote.

Wait till Tuesday. That’s point will be driven home.

[Cha]

36. Oh I agree.. but they ran with it.. and now they

see why it wasn't viable.

[question everything]

38. BTW Cha, what is Shaka sign

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287667084

[Cha]

43. Mahalo for that.. Oh my Senator Schatz!

Here's Mr Scorpio with a pic of President Obama giving the Shaka sign..

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10027653223

Indeed it does mean hang loose..

[Cha]

39. Sanders team goes all in on Michigan

The Sanders team never pursued endorsements in the way that Biden did. Sanders' message was that he was taking on the Democratic establishment, not trying to be a part of it. But the flood of endorsements paid off for Biden on Super Tuesday, by giving him a unexpected boost from earned media.

In the leadup to Super Tuesday, cable news coverage of the race had morphed into what Sanders supporters viewed as a three-day informercial about how Biden was unifying the party. Though Sanders was talking to Warren frequently by phone, the Massachusetts senator was not ready to endorse, another blow to his campaign at a critical time

Winning begets winning

But the campaign was faltering, partly because Sanders' effort to expand the electorate and build a winning coalition by driving up turnout of independent voters and younger voters did not materialize on the first Super Tuesday or the second. Turnout was up, yet it was Biden who was putting together a broad coalition of older voters, suburban voters and blue-collar voters.

Biden's unique connection to voters was a strength that also came to the forefront in those pivotal 10 days between South Carolina and the second Super Tuesday. Clyburn, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, O'Rourke and all the other leaders who campaigned for him reminded the American people of Biden's chief strength: his deep empathy and connection with ordinary Americans.

It was a salient point during a period when President Trump cavalierly waved off concerns about the pandemic and later said he'd rather have thousands of people marooned offshore in a disease-infested cruise ship than to bring them on shore and have his number of infected people in America spike.

Thank you again, Bill!

[William769]

55. & thank you for all you do here.

[Cha]

57. You're Welcome and Mahalo

to you for the same.. So glad you're back at this point in time.

I love this historical article.. I never would have seen if you hadn't posted it.

[showblue22]

42. I tried to tell people about Bernie screaming about NAFTA in MI...

People here are no longer anti trade for the most part. They're sick of hearing about NAFTA and hate Trump's trade policies. They think Bernie and Trump are similar on trade. Every time Bernie brought us NAFTA, it hurt him worse. Some here did not believe me. Lol.

[comradebillyboy]

50. Protectionism and isolationism are losing messages

in the 21st century.