ABC/WaPo : Biden consolidates support, but trails badly in enthusiasm: Poll (A+ Rated)

[Celerity]

Strong enthusiasm for Biden among those who back him over Trump is just 24%.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-consolidates-support-trails-badly-enthusiasm-poll/story?id=69812092

Former Vice President Joe Biden has emerged as Democrats’ top choice for the presidential nomination in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, but with only bare majority support within his party and a massive enthusiasm gap in a November matchup against President Donald Trump. Indeed, strong enthusiasm for Biden among his supporters – at just 24% – is the lowest on record for a Democratic presidential candidate in 20 years of ABC/Post polls. More than twice as many of Trump’s supporters are highly enthusiastic about supporting him, 53%. Trump’s still-strong rating on the economy is another challenge for Biden. So is this: Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who prefer Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders for the nomination, 15% say they’d back Trump over Biden in the fall.


See PDF for full results, charts and tables.




In the nomination contest, 51% of leaned Democrats now prefer Biden vs. 42% for Sanders. That’s a vast 34-point gain for Biden since mid-February, with other candidates having left the race and endorsed him. Sanders gained 10%age points. Yet even as he’s advanced in his party, Biden’s slipped against Trump in a November matchup. The two are locked into essentially a dead heat among registered voters, 49-47%, Biden-Trump, after a slight Biden lead, 52-45%, in February. Biden does better vs. Trump among all adults (Democrats are less apt to be registered), 50-44%. That’s a slight lead, but it was more solidly significant in February, 52-44%.

Enthusiasm

Perhaps the Democrats’ biggest risk is under the surface, in Trump’s big advantage in backers who are “very” enthusiastic about supporting him. Strong enthusiasm for a candidate can help boost turnout on Election Day, a must-have particularly for Democrats, who rely more on motivating less-frequent voters to come to the polls. While trailing Trump by 29 points in high-level enthusiasm, Biden makes up some of the difference with those who are “somewhat” enthusiastic. But he still trails Trump by 12 points in the combined measure, 74 vs. 86%.

There’s déjà vu in these results: Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton found herself in largely the same position four years ago. She, too, had a slim lead among Democrats for the nomination and ran essentially evenly with Trump among registered voters. And she lagged in enthusiasm, with a low of 32% very enthusiastic in September 2016. Biden is 8 points under that mark now.




snip

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and
cellular telephone March 22-25, 2020, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample
of 1,003 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design
effect. Partisan divisions are 30-24-37 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

[PubliusEnigma]

1. Ha! eom

[ucrdem]

2. Wait about two weeks.

Wish it were otherwise but it's going to be very grim.

He won't have any trouble with enthusiasm.

[fallout87]

28. Why are you so sure?

?

[ucrdem]

37. Peak coronavirus. nt

[LakeArenal]

3. Once again polls of no one I know.

Polls are people who respond to polling.
As some one reminded, me most are push polls.

[LuvLoogie]

4. This is why Bernie needs to drop out,

then The Democratic Establishment can start putting out the big guns to rally around Joe in public.

But out of deference to Democratic tradition, first comes the concession from the last rival.

Bernie has no allegiance to the Democratic Party, but takes advantage of its traditions and protocol. It's a very parasitic position that grows more wearisome by the day

[hangaleft]

31. Yep. Lack of enthusiasm for Biden is all Sanders' fault

[LuvLoogie]

40. There is plenty of enthusiasm for Joe...

There is ZERO for Bernie, beyond his gas lit hangers on and the Busters. Trump holds the airwaves everyday and bleeds his filth into the evening news.

Bernie will not let the vanguard advance. He wants his fucking super secret decoder ring kissed along with his ass first.

[The Magistrate]

5. The Question They Ought To Ask, Ma'am

Is 'Are you enthusiastic about voting against Trump?' If I answered a poll honestly, I would have to say I am not particularly enthused about voting for Mr. Biden, but I am damned enthusiastic about voting against the cheap thug Trump. I suspect there is a lot of this among Democrats. The punditry did not catch the extent of the groundswell against Republicans registered in the results of the 2018 Cogressional elections. Nor, in a system which allocates delegates proportionately, is Mr. Biden's lead over Sanders slim. It is commanding.





"From Bernie’s perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they don’t want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."

[Celerity]

6. Absolutely agree Sir that Sanders needs to drop out, and the sooner the better. He also needs to

endorse Biden whole-heartedly and work his arse off to campaign for him. If he dithers and strings this out for months he is only aiding Trump.

[The Magistrate]

8. Unfortunately, Ma'am, 'Bernie' Can Be Relied On To Do The Wrong Thing

I have long since grown tired of the civics text platitudes that produce the continual bleat that candidates, especially somehow Democratic Party candidates, must always give people something to vote for. The removal and destruction of an enemy is something to vote for! Hate is not just a powerful but a legitimate motivator. Elections are about gathering the largest possible number of people to a single banner, and very little fuses a mass of people like hatred. I cannot recall ever hating a living man like I hate this cheap thug Trump, and I detested Reagan and despised Bush.

[Celerity]

13. +1

[Frances]

10. There is huge enthusiasm to vote against Trump

Even a majority of Bernie supporters will vote for a Biden

[The Magistrate]

12. I Agree, Ma'am

The energy in this election lies with middle of the road types disgusted with this cheap thug Trump, and solid Democrats who hate this cheap thug Trump like poison. Both types want this cheap thug out of their faces, out of their ears, and out of the White House.





"From Bernie’s perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they don’t want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."

[fallout87]

29. Well, Sir, I believe, Sir, they did in fact

Measure enthusiasm, and at this time, sir, it may not be what we want.......sir.

lol

(insert 4 paragraph cut and paste signature line here)

[The Magistrate]

32. Enthusiasm For Voting Against The Cheap Thug Trump, Sir

Is something different than enthusiasm for voting for some particular candidate.

But you knew that and Beelzebub is going to bed....







The fact is Sanders campaigns not to gain the Democratic Party's nomination for President, but to weaken if not wreck the 'Democratic Establishment'. For 'Bernie', ousting Trump and ending the Republican majority in the Senate is barely an afterthought to this long-standing purpose. Once Sanders' supporters face this fact squarely, they may be able to decide honestly what their best course in this election is: voting against 'Bernie' in any future primary, and for Mr. Biden and Democrats all down the ticket to the lowest office on the ballot come November.

It is probably true that Sanders sees destroying the 'Democratic Establishment' as an essential precondition to defeating Trump et al, and so by his own lights he means it when he says he will do all he can to defeat Trump. But that belief is so self-serving and delusional it deserves not just scorn but contempt.

As with Trump, the only real cure is to deprive the man of the oxygen of worshipful attention. The effect would be that of a bucket of water on the wicked witch of Oz....





"From Bernie’s perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they don’t want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."

[msongs]

7. like last time a large chunk of bernie voters say trump's their choice nt

[The Magistrate]

9. These, Ma'am, Are What 'Bernie' Thinks Gives Him Leverage To Make Demands

There is no question 'Bernie' knowingly presents our Party with the threat that a number of his supporters will not vote for anyone but him, and therefore he should be given concession after concession. The problem is that 'Bernie' really couldn't bring them along if attempts to buy him off were made. He deliberately tries to inflame supporters to such a heat that if he did try and bring them along with an endorsement of the winner, some would surely just denounce 'Bernie' as a sell-out. He has 'called up that which he cannot put down'.

That said, a number like this is unlikely to hold through to November. Some of this just reflects the heat of battle, and will have cooled considerably by the time the actual choice, Mr. Biden or the cheap thug Trump, is present in the voting booth.




"From Bernie’s perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they don’t want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."

[Celerity]

11. Because they're a much smaller actual number this time around, we can hopefully survive a 15%

straight to Trump defection rate (they had a straight to Trump rate of around 12% or so last time, and Hillary primary voters defected straight to McCain in 2008 at a rate of 24% to 25%, see here for a long reply of mine doing a deep dive into all this). Another big question is how many stay home or vote 3rd Party/indie.

Also, it is ALL on Sanders to sort this shit. He needs to drop and endorse Joe ASAP.

[The Magistrate]

14. You Are Quite Right, Ma'am

The initial number is lower than in 2016.

Your discussion of 2008 opens an interesting subject. Coverage of the 2008 primary laid great stress on Mrs. Clinton's great support from 'working class whites', the 'real Americans' of hackneyed political lore. Just as much of Sanders' support in 2016 from 'working class whites' was rooted in misogyny, so much of Mrs. Clinton's support in 2008 was rooted in racism.

An illustration of this comes from West Virginia. Mrs. Clinton carried it handily in the 2008 primary, to much congratulation on her 'working class white' support. In 2012, a white man doing time in a Federal prison managed to get his name on the Democratic primary ballot in that state, and took something like 40% of the vote against a sitting (negro) President of the United States. In 2016, when Sanders carried West Virginia against Mrs. Clinton, roughly 40% of Sanders voters declared in the exit polls they had every intention of voting for Trump, even if Sanders' were to secure the nomination.

There is doubtless an appreciable body of people who supported Mrs. Clinton in the 2008 primary, supported 'Bernie' in the 2016 primary, and voted in the 2008 general election for McCain and in the 2016 general election for the cheap thug Trump. It seems mystifying only to people who cannot look squarely at things, and pundits who cannot bring themselves to name large currents beneath the surface of our political life. For the unifying theme that runs through all these 'apparent contradictions' is a reluctance of many 'white working class' types to vote for a negro or a woman, with a white woman being considered slightly preferable to a black man, though damned near any white man is to be preferred to a white woman. My language is a bit saltier when explaining things to my grandchildren, but that will do for a public forum....





"From Bernie’s perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they don’t want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."

[Awsi Dooger]

15. The strongly approve vs strongly disapprove percentage is a key reference point

Not every poll breaks it down that way but some do. In 2018 Republicans were faring well in enthusiasm polls but Trump's strongly disapprove number was almost twice the strongly approve percentage. It was generally in the 47-24 range. People who disapproved of Trump strongly disapproved. That translated to votes.

I haven't looked at that relationship lately but we need to gap to remain as wide as possible.

I remember Romney was said to have a big enthusiasm edge in 2012, specifically after exceeding expectation in the first debate. That drove the betting price on Obama down and I took advantage. Obama was in that surreal advantage of incumbent whose party had been in power only one term. Obama also had the swing state polling edge in 2012, meaning his electoral college chances were far beyond his popular vote chances. Nate Silver was emphasizing that repeatedly. Then if flipped in 2016 with Hillary's electoral college situation always far more precarious than the national polling indicated. Again, Nate Silver was all over that also.

[Celerity]

16. +1

here are 2 more parts of this poll

[UncleNoel]

17. Malarkey! Vote with heart and mind,not stimulated nerves...

[tirebiter]

18. The economy was great during the JFK/LBJ years of Vietnam

Last edited Mon Mar 30, 2020, 05:43 AM - Edit history (1)

Trump was bragging today that only killing 100k to 200k Americans in the next 3-4 months would show he did a great job. Hell it took 16 years to kill 58,220 Americans in Vietnam. Enthusiasm is overrated. Determination is what’s needed.

[Thekaspervote]

19. Somehow this just does not pass the smell test.

With all the other polls showing Biden with a strong lead... I don’t buy it

Link to tweet

?s=21

https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presidential-forecast/

Link to tweet

?s=21

Link to tweet

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Link to tweet

?s=21

These are all very recent polls by some f the most reputable pollsters. If voters aren’t enthusiastic why such high marks?

[scardycat]

20. 15% say they'd back Trump over Biden in the fall

BS supporters would vote for the orange one over Biden. All I can say is what a bunch of dump asses. BS and trumpt are complete opposites so I gather they will vote for trumpt over Biden out of spite because they cant have what they want. BABIES!!!!!!

[Celerity]

21. see this

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287690923#post11

cheers

[BidenBacker]

22. ABC News Poll...ABC News Poll

Hmmm, now where have I heard of these guys before? Ah, yes...these were the same folks who 2 weeks before the 2016 election said Hillary all but had it in the bag because voter "enthusiasm" for Trump had plummeted...

Clinton Vaults to a Double-Digit Lead, Boosted by Broad Disapproval of Trump

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-vaults-double-digit-lead-boosted-broad-disapproval/story?id=42993821

The previous ABC/Post poll found a sharp 12-point decline in enthusiasm for Trump among his supporters, almost exclusively among those who’d preferred a different GOP nominee. Intended participation now has followed: The share of registered Republicans who are likely to vote is down 7 points since mid-October.

I ain't worried about no "enthusiasm". Doesn't matter if a voter pulls the handle with one arm holding his nose or pulls it so hard he snaps it off in his hands...each one counts as one.

"You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else." --Winston Churchill

Long way to go, luv...until then, rock on. Even slipped in a Union Jack for extra brownie points.

[Lucid Dreamer]

30. Excellent reminder, BB.

If poll results make you feel comfortable... that makes me feel uncomfortable.

Couple of problems w/ polls showing Biden over trump w/ such slim margins.
1. Comfort may actually reduce voting.
2. If trump supporters are reluctant to participate in polls, the true picture is not favorable to Biden.

[I was one who believed 2016 exit polls all the way to about 1:30am. Today I am somewhat sceptical.]

[BidenBacker]

36. You have a right to be skeptical, LD

We Dems are still in a lingering state of shock over what happened in 2016 and have never fully recovered. Kinda like the Goppers were after 9/11 and stayed in a permanent state of stupid after that. But Dems are smarter than Pubbies are and won't make the same mistake again.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287691331#post11

I am as optimistic as one can realistically be at this early stage with many more months left to go. And I'm a pessimistic person by nature.

[Wanderlust988]

23. And Bernie also beat Biden in enthusiasm

And we all see how that ended! What a stupid question at this point and time. While I may have been more enthused to vote for Obama in 2008, I will crawl over hot coals to vote for Biden in 2020. If you need to be enthused in order to go out and vote against a lying murderer, then you need your head examined.

[MFM008]

24. I dont have to be excited

To vote for a return to sanity.
I WILL be very excited to see the maggot
Exit the white house.
No matter how.

[Hortensis]

25. Given the kinds of people who get really enthusiastic

for both Trump and Sanders, not drawing most of those says good things about our candidate, who's doing extremely well with committed voters.

Funny, but on the left strong enthusiasm tends to have an inverse correlation with actually, you know, voting. That's without even considering his hostile fringe who have no intention of voting for a Democrat.

And Trump's surge in his typically pathetically high enthusiasm ratings is due to loyalists rallying to the defense of a criminal president in danger, and to the defense of their own corrupted choices.

[LizBeth]

26. The enthusiasm is getting Trump out. That would be a blue wave. That blue wave is behind Biden.

[SheltieLover]

27. Sounds like BS to me

And, judging from the myriad voters who stood in line for many hours resulting in Joe's bog wins, I think they skewed the results.

[Celerity]

33. welcome to DU

I have to go do



Wifey has a pile of socks and stuffs she needs washed and this week is my turn

btw

Would be curious as to how

they skewed the results.

Are you saying that ABC and the Washington Post committed journalistic fraud by wilfully manipulating the poll results for an A+ rated poll? If that is not what you are saying, then please do explain that accusation.

[captain queeg]

34. Cripes, it's not a popularity contest. It would be nice if people voted with their intellect.

Look what happened when people voted by their feelings, ignoring a mountain of evidence that trump was a lying corrupt incompetent.

[Mike Nelson]

35. Well...

... I admit I've never had the enthusiasm for Biden that I had for other candidates... but i plan to vote for him with the enthusiasm of a gazillion suns.

[marlakay]

38. Once again poll questions off

How about the question how angry are you to vote? I have the anger of a million tons right now and that anger will make me fight for Joe.

He might not be exciting and young but I totally feel safe knowing he will pick competent people to run the country if this isn’t over or we have another crisis.

That anger comes from watching every stupid, rash, illegal and getting away with it, immoral, uncaring, unsympathetic thing he has done since day one and reaches a boiling point with his purposely not giving help to blue states during a crisis while Obama helped every state as a normal president would do.

[comradebillyboy]

39. Where do I show enthusiasm on my ballot? Votes are

what matters. Not enthusiasm, not exit polls, not wishful thinking. If Bernie is supposed to generate the most enthusiasm where are his votes? Cleveland Browns fans are rabidly enthusiastic but the Browns are still a terrible team.