5 Weird Items In The New Bernie-Buttigieg Poll

[Sancho]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldurkheimer/2019/04/17/5-weird-items-in-the-new-bernie-buttigieg-poll/?fbclid=IwAR35gZRirytQJoTLGVtEK_4rZiM6RucbEiievNSsa7e1N4bqMi2VAzcf8Zg#2e3e4d9f7ddd

A new poll released this week reshuffled the 2020 Democratic Primaries with two major developments:

Bernie Sanders came in first place for the first time since RealClearPolitics has tracked the 2020 field, dethroning Joe Biden.
Pete Buttigieg, the relatively unknown 37-year-old Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, jumped ahead of the rest of the crowded field and is now in third place.

No. 3: 26% of current Bernie Sanders supporters said that they would rather vote for President Donald Trump over Senator Elizabeth Warren, if that were the eventual 2020 matchup.

No. 1: Only 51% of current Bernie supporters actually voted in the 2016 General Election for the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton – 7% voted for Trump, 23% voted for a third-party candidate, and 19% did not vote.

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My only comment is to read the link. The link to the original poll is https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/april-national-poll-bernie-takes-lead-for-democratic-nomination-mayor-pete-on-the-move

Of course we all know that polls can be poor predictors of eventual outcomes at this point, and also that polls have flaws and confounding sampling. Even so, it's part of the discussion.

[vlyons]

1. Well I don't get it

Policy-wise Sanders and Warren hold much of the same positions. I guess that 26%, who would vote for Trump over Warren are misogynists, who simply lack the imagination to see a woman in the WH.

Screw them

[Recursion]

5. Their support isn't about policy but about performance art

These are people who look at the ballot box as a place for self-actualization rather than as a place to do as little harm as possible and, occasionally, possibly some good.

[BlueFlorida]

10. Bernie has devotees

who see no flaw in him and who will support anything he proposes and vigorously defend every one of his missteps. The "devotee" status has come out of anger at corporations and rich people, blaming both for every ailment of America. The words like "revolution" attract the angry people and make them loyal soldiers to the cause.

Senator Warren does not use anger as a motivating technique so devotees prefer Bernie.

[Kentonio]

38. I don't understand it either.

But it could be young first time voters who aren’t yet familiar with Liz and the impressive work she’s done. Hopefully that will change as the primaries unfold and they get to see more of her.

[left-of-center2012]

2. From the linked article ...

No. 5: 43% of Pete Buttigieg’s support comes from Independent voters, not registered Democrats.

This is the highest percentage of Independent (non-Democrat) supporters for any candidate in the current field. Only 57% of Buttigieg’s supporters are registered as Democrats.

In contrast, 80% of Bernie’ supporters and 84% of Biden’s supporters are registered Democrats.

For those who believe in Mayor Pete’s growth potential and potential to beat President Trump, this relatively high percentage of support from Independent voters is a good sign for the 37-year-old Mayor from the Midwest.

[Tom Rinaldo]

6. Ah, I can see tho classic old argument reemerging again

Should Independents have a say in selecting the Democratic nominee?

[left-of-center2012]

7. Independents can't vote in the primaries

They can vot in the fall.

[Agschmid]

8. Kind of true.

It’s different in each state.

[cannabis_flower]

14. Depends on the state

Anyone can vote in the Democratic Primary in Texas. But you can't vote in both primaries. There is no party registration here. You don't declare your party when you register to vote. I'm pretty sure that there are other states like Texas.

[TwilightZone]

22. Not quite. There is party affiliation in Texas.

If you affiliate with a party, you can only vote in that party's primary.

If you do not affiliate with a party, you can vote in either primary, but only one. Once you vote in a primary, you are affiliated with that party until the end of that calendar year.

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/laws/advisory2018-15.shtml

[cannabis_flower]

26. Well, that may be true but...

Most voters aren't "affiliated with a party in Texas until the primary.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

28. Minnesota is like that - when you register to vote you don't register with a party.

So technically everybody is an independent. We are switching from caucuses to primaries for 2020, and as I understand it we will have to request a ballot for a particular party so it will be impossible to vote for more than one primary candidate or cross over.

[peggysue2]

23. Not really true

In Tennessee, I can vote in the primary without declaring my party affiliation. Which turns it into a Wild West scenario.

[happybird]

35. In Virginia you can

The only constraint is if there is a dual primary on Super Tuesday You can only vote in one primary contest, but you get to pick which one. Party affiliation/registration does not matter.

[Celerity]

44. only 14 states have closed primaries

Delaware, Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Nebraska, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Oregon and Wyoming.

5 of of those even allow independents, if the Party approves.

The only truly closed off to Independents are

https://www.thoughtco.com/what-is-an-open-primary-3367495

9 Closed Primary States

There are nine states that require primary voters to be registered with the party in whose primary they are participating. These closed-primary states also prohibit independent and third-party voters from voting in primaries and helping the parties choose their nominees. "This system generally contributes to a strong party organization," according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

These closed-primary states are:

Delaware
Florida
Kentucky
Maryland
Nevada
New Mexico
New York
Oregon
Pennsylvania

The rest are a mixture wherein indies can vote in most cases.

[IndianaDave]

46. Just for clarification

In Indiana, we have to declare our party affiliation for primary elections. But, I remember a year when Republicans (who had only one candidate for the position of Governor) decided to declare that they were Democrats, so that they could force the state to choose the weakest state Democratic candidate. I would like to be more specific about which year it was, but I honestly can't remember. It was around 10 years ago.

Of course in the General election, they voted Republican.

[Celerity]

47. 2008

here is a large drill-down I did on another thread regarding that (Indiana is included)

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=76336

Because I put NC and Indiana together in that post

here is the number just for IN

95,870 (you will see what I mean when you read that post)

And that 95,870 is giving absolute max impact to the whole Operation Chaos theory possible, as I took 10% of the total combined vote for Obama and Hillary and then gave 75% to Hillary, whereas in PA the reverse happened (the Republican to Democrat switchers) broke 2 to 1 to Obama, not Hillary, even with Operation Chaos in full effect.

I also wanted to (in that post at the link) state the highest possible impact (so I attribute EVERY single one of the Repug to Democratic switchers who voted for Hillary as being driven by the Operation Chaos theory, when clearly they ALL were not), just to show that the impact was much much smaller in the overall election than either Limbaugh claimed or some want to say.

[George II]

12. They should not.

[Devil Child]

16. Absolutley! Close the primaries.

Democratic primaries should be open to registered Democrats only!

[David__77]

19. I would not support that in California.

I believe Republicans closed their primary and Democrats did not. I think allowing the decline to state voters to vote as Democrats was a great marketing tool for the Democratic Party, a form of outreach to those who don’t wish to officially self-identify.

At the same time, I can also understand wanting to close it off.

[Amimnoch]

9. I can see that.

I’ve noticed in social media, people that I’ve known for a long time, who typically avoid political discussion all together are posting Pete memes.

Another interesting observation I’m seeing from some of my extended family members that I don’t care for very much are liking Buttigieg. Some interesting factors on these particular people:
1. Only some of them actually vote, most just “talk” about who they like/don’t like in politics.
2. Base their decisions mostly on low information, social media memes, and some occasionally watch Faux news.
3. Have passive homophobic tendencies. Not the “kill the gays” variety homophobes, but the ones that are quick to jump on to crap like “they already had equal marriage rights, they can marry the opposite sex just like everyone else” type of homophobic crap. Despite this, the fact that Mayor Pete is gay and gay married doesn’t seem to bother them at all. Color me impressed.
4. His military service, and something about the way he speaks seems to touch them in a way that wins them over.
5. Many of these are in Louisiana and Texas.

[True Dough]

27. Excellent observation

Real food for thought.

[dawg day]

3. Many if those who didn't vote in 2016...

We're probably too young then.

[Honeycombe8]

4. There's something weird about these poll results or Sanders voters.

19% of them didn't even vote in 2016? 23% voted for a third party (Putin Pal Jill Stein maybe?)? And 7% actually voted for Trump, with all that we knew about him even then? Openly mocked a disabled person, bragged about grabbing women w/o their consent because he's a star? Wouldn't release his tax returns. Was relentless in personal attacks on Clinton, to the point of rally cries to throw her in prison. So THEY are a big factor in why Trump is in the W.H.? That is very odd. I need to ponder that. What IS up with that? Are they really Democrats, or what? This is very odd.

I need to read up on the poll itself. Very odd. I wonder if they are white males? Blue collar workers? Who are they? I would like to hear their own explanations, like we get to hear sometimes.

[philly_bob]

17. Agree on the weirdness of this poll result.

"If Bernie Sanders doesn't win the primary, I'm voting for Trump" -- that's crazy.

I'm skeptical.

[TreasonousBastard]

37. 538 had them as next to worst poll...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-pollsters-to-trust-in-2018/

[louis c]

11. That corresponds to all my experiences with BS supporters

Last edited Sat Apr 20, 2019, 11:33 AM - Edit history (1)

...BS supporters (a large amount, but by no means all) would rather the Democrat lose if they don't get their way.

BS supporters have the perfect name "Our Revolution". If a Democrat is not part of "Their Revolution", you are as much the enemy as Trump. Too many (again, not all) of BS supporters have no idea or inclination on how to be part of a coalition.

[David__77]

20. I suggest that using pejoratives for Sanders supporters won't facilitate coalition.

...

[louis c]

24. Ya, kissing their asses worked so well in 2016

the best bet is not counting on them and getting the 5% to 10% of marginal Trump voters (mid-west, blue collar union voters. Again, 5% to 10%, not al) will be easier than the 25% of BS supporters who will never come our way.

[David__77]

25. Not every voter is in some activist milieu.

I voted for Sanders in 2016 and if the primary were held today I’d vote for him now. I also voted for Clinton, and I’m a registered Democrat.

I mainly observed the conflicts over the primary without having a sense of being part of it.

I and many other Sanders voters were indeed part of the coalition that voted for Clinton. I don’t understand how pejoratives of a large and diverse group can be helpful now.

[louis c]

29. What part of 25% don't you understand?

75% is a vast majority and I would venture almost all BS supporters on DU are in the 75%.

I always put in parenthesis (some, but not all) when discussing BS supporters.

Look, I'm a union guy and I work in political action campaigns. There is no question that a lot of our members went the other way and had a lot to do in Trump's election, especially in the mid-west. Biden gets them back in enough of a proportion to help us carry Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

This poll demonstrates exactly what we all knew in 2016. Half of Sanders supporters did not vote for Hillary in 2016.

[louis c]

36. Here you go...

Pennsylvania
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html

Wisconsin;
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_biden-6849.html

Michigan;
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html

[George II]

13. Those two items are pretty much what many of us have thought for a while.

Is there a message in the fact that three of Sanders' top staffers, including the Campaign Chair, voted for Jill Stein?

[babylonsister]

15. ...

Yes, Newsmax

https://www.newsmax.com/bestlists/top-pollsters-america-elections/2018/09/17/id/882058/

3. Emerson College — Accurate? Check. Unbiased? Double Check. Reputable? You bet. Emerson has been making headlines for years thanks to its outstanding IVR polling, and has even received a shout-out from the president for its recent success and perceived accuracy.

Read Newsmax: Newsmax's Top 25 Pollsters in America | Newsmax.com
By Mason Thibault | Monday, 17 September 2018 10:50 AM

*******************
https://www.theverge.com/2017/2/9/14558290/trump-polls-twitter-media-fake-news

These are the controversial polls Trump wants you to believe
February 9th, 2017
By Amar Toor@amartoo Feb 9, 2017, 7:30am EST

Within the space of a few hours yesterday, President Donald Trump pinched out a series of tweets related to two different news articles. One included a screenshot from a recent Morning Consult poll, which found that the White House’s immigration ban is “one of Trump's most popular orders so far.” A second tweet linked to a story from The Hill about a new poll from Emerson College. The headline reads: “Trump administration seen as more truthful than news media: poll.”

[David__77]

21. The errors bounds on the data subsets will be large.

The +/-% confidence on the overall sample size won’t apply to segments of it. Just pointing that out because I think it’s intuitive that the counterintuitiveness of results will be higher as one drills down.

[louis c]

39. The biggest error was by the 49% of BS voters that helped elect Trump

[David__77]

41. Actually, they aren't Sanders 2016 voters, they're people indicating support for his 2020 run.

In the poll, 103 respondents indicated supporting Sanders for 2020.

Of these, here's how they reported voting (or not) in the 2016 Democratic primary:

Bernie Sanders: 55 (54%
Hillary Clinton: 29 (29%)
Someone Else: 12 (11%)
Did not vote in Democratic primary: 7 (6%)

I think that this subset is subject to a lot of statistical error. Of course, the sample close to the population.

[BooScout]

31. 26%?

Huh. Interesting....but not surprising.

[David__77]

42. Interesting too that 29% of the 2020 Sanders supporters were Clinton primary voters.

The poll results are interesting.

[BooScout]

45. Interesting...

[Tiggeroshii]

34. 19% did not vote

He appeals to voters who wouldn't otherwise vote

[David__77]

43. According to the poll results 29% of his support is from Clinton primary voters.

I find that interesting. That said, there are big errors margins on this sample size of 103.

[David__77]

40. In this poll, 29% of the 2020 Sanders supporters reported voting for Clinton in the 2016 primary.

In the poll, 103 respondents indicated supporting Sanders.

Here's how they reported voting (or not) in the 2016 Democratic primary:

Bernie Sanders: 55 (54%
Hillary Clinton: 29 (29%)
Someone Else: 12 (11%)
Did not vote in Democratic primary: 7 (6%)

See: http://emersonpolling.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/47/2019/04/ecp_national_20190414-final.xlsx

[Doodley]

49. Is BS even a Democrat? I can't keep up with if he is or isn't. I guess when

it is convenient to him, he magically becomes a Democrat. Therefore, as the poll suggests, many of his supporters aren't Democrats and may or may not vote depending only on if he wins the nomination.