**University of NH poll** Sanders 30% Biden 18% Buttigieg 15% all others less than %5

[jezebel321]

Sanders +4, Biden -4, Buttigieg +14

Link to tweet

[Renew Deal]

1. Sanders is inevitable

Just sit back and take it all in.

[Demsrule86]

11. I hope not because Trump will beat Sanders in a general.

[leftofcool]

27. Yep

Not enough Democrats will vote for him and not enough kids will show up to vote.

[Mr Tibbs]

56. Forgive us if we don't believe you

[Demsrule86]

76. Nothing to forgive. I just think Sanders fans don't pay attention to how we win.

I don't think Sanders can win the states we need,

[Gothmog]

72. If sanders is the nominee, trump will win 45+ states in the real world

[thesquanderer]

82. In which states do you see 2016 Hillary voters choosing Trump over Sanders?

Because unless that happens, Bernie gets the states that Hillary got... and he's got a decent shot at MI, WI, and PA. While he's not my first choice, I'd still feel very comfortable with ours odds of success if he were the nominee. Same with Biden.

[Demsrule86]

84. It is not Hillary voters you need to worry about. It is WI, MI, and PA you have to worry about.

Sanders won't carry those states in a general...no shot in Ohio either. So Trump wins the electoral college.

[Kurt V.]

51. too soon

[lunamagica]

61. Then let's get ready for four more years of trump

[Gothmog]

71. Really?

Link to tweet

[Blue_true]

86. You don't think the book buying with campaign funds won't hurt Bernie?

That has the potential to strip away everything that Bernie says that he is. If Bernie starts to be seen as just another person that used politics to enrich himself or herself, his allure to progressive voters gets blown out of the water. I believe that Warren or Buttigieg are going to profit big if the campaign book buy becomes an issue.

[question everything]

2. N.H. is a neighbor. And, like Iowa is not a representation of the country

Time to remove both as the king makers.

[vsrazdem]

3. Oh come on, if Biden was ahead people would be jumping for joy.

[Demsrule86]

8. Yeah, because Sanders would get out quicker...the sooner the better. We need to to have a

general election nominee that can win...sure I would vote for Sanders in a general but, he won't win.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

10. Yep, like clockwork.

Bernie behind = aha Bernie’s finished! Finished, I tell ya!

Bernie ahead = too early/name recognition! White people state! Fake poll! Clickey clickey!

[vsrazdem]

18. Yep, sounds pretty familiar.

[artislife]

23. He can't win. His numbers are too high. nt

[Hassin Bin Sober]

43. He and his million donors and volunteers should pack it in!

[artislife]

46. He's reached people in all 50 states

and the territories, too.

There is no more land mass for him to reach.


Give it up.

Stop while you're ahead



of almost everybody!

[qazplm135]

28. if anyone were ahead of Bernie in a NH poll

they'd be jumping for joy because he SHOULD be ahead in a state that neighbors him.

Just like Warren should win Mass and if she doesn't that's a problem for her, and if anyone, including Bernie ends up winning it, that's a boon for them.

Or Cali for Harris. Or Delaware for Biden.

[George II]

5. It's a shame that Iowa and New Hampshire are the first two states to primary/caucus....

They're two of the lowest populated states in the country and among the least homogeneous states as well.

Combined they have less than 1.4% of the population; Iowa is 90% white, New Hampshire 94%. Neither has a major city. And yet the media and electorate will look at them as choosing the "leader" for the nomination.

[NurseJackie]

9. The demographics of those states certainly does NOT represent the United States, AND...

The demographics of those states certainly does NOT represent the United States, AND those demographics aren't as challenging for someone like BS. When everyone is basically the same, and when everyone has so much in common, it's easy for a politician to thread-the-needle.

[George II]

14. Let's see how the states of NC, SC, GA, AL, MS, LA, and even FL vote. Those will be more....

....representative of the country and the Democratic Party than either of those states. Plus, they're predominantly republican states, too.

[dsc]

53. NC is hardly predominately GOP

In 2016 we won the governorship. In 2018 we won every statewide race (all judges) the two party vote for state legislature, and the contested two party vote for Congress. Not a predominately GOP state.

[George II]

54. I was referring to Iowa and New Hampshire, I guess I didn't word that sentence well. Sorry.

[Voltaire2]

58. Odd that NH's entire congressional delegation is Democratic

and that both chambers of the legislature are controlled by the Democratic Party. That's really odd for a 'predominantly Republican" state. But I;ve read here that you're never wrong, so it must be so.

[George II]

66. I feel like I'm playing in an American League baseball game here....batter up!

Look historically at New Hampshire, not just today.

Prior to Shaheen taking office in 2009 and Hassan just two years ago, both Senators were republicans going all the way back to the 1970s.

New Hampshire's governors have been predominantly republican, too - over the last 50 years republicans have been governor for 34 years, Democrats only 16 years. And of the 73 governors that have been from either party, 52 have been republican, 21 Democratic.

As for Representatives, going back to 1967 (I could go back further but it's worse), that's 120 years (60 for each of the two) republicans have held office 84 years vs. 36 years for Democrats.

BTW, New Hampshire doesn't have a "legislature", they have the General Court.

In the Senate, republicans have held the majority for 21 years since 1992, Democrats 5 years plus almost four months in 2019, and it was evenly split for one year.

In the House, republicans have had the majority for 21 years since 1992, Democrats 6 years plus almost four months in 2019.

Yes, New Hampshire is predominantly republican, unless of course it's not.

[Voltaire2]

77. Like I said: never wrong.

Most political analysts consider my state a swing state. But obviously they didn’t consult you.

[George II]

78. Maybe they should have.

[Voltaire2]

79. Lulzd.

Again: entire congressional delegation is Democratic, both chambers of the legislature are controlled by the Democratic Party, Clinton won the state in 16, Obama in 12 and 08, Kerry in 04.

[George II]

80. Lulzd, you're from New Hampshire and yet you refer to the General Court as the "Legislature"?

So, a state where republicans held the majority in the Senate for 8 of the last 9 years and a majority in the House for 4 of the last 5 years is now considered a "swing state". Where was my head?

[Voltaire2]

81. We all do. It is formally the General Court.

But as nobody outside of the politically savvy would know wtf you were talking about, it is commonly referred to as the legislature.

I don’t know exactly where your head is, but if it’s in a bad place I’d get it out of there if I were you.

You could google the swing state status of nh, but it seems instead google should consult you.

[NurseJackie]

13. Considering that he can't even get AA to attend a rally at a BLACK church in a MAJORITY BLACK city...

Considering that he can't even get AA (and other POC) to attend a rally at a BLACK church in a MAJORITY BLACK city, I think that's very revealing of why BS does well in places like IA, NH, and VT.

His rally in North Charleston, SC had so LITTLE ethnic diversity that it looked like he could have been somewhere in Vermont. In fact, based on the statistics, the demographics at that rally was even whiter than Vermont.

It's obvious that the AA and POC community are rejecting BS and the BS campaign. BS just doesn't connect with that community. The BS message just isn't resonating.

All I'm saying is, that without the AA vote, BS doesn't stand a chance. And without the "early" states of IA and NH, it's clear to me that BS would be knocked out much sooner.

[George II]

15. Indeed.

[vsrazdem]

20. Yes, keep plugging that 1 event over and over and maybe people will believe you.

[NurseJackie]

21. Yes, keep denying it happened exactly as I said and maybe people will believe you.

Yes, keep plugging that 1 event over and over and maybe people will believe you.

Yes, keep denying it happened exactly as I said and maybe people will believe you. Good grief!

[vsrazdem]

22. I didn't deny it. It was 1 event. He has had others in SC since then where he had their support.

[NurseJackie]

30. You said "maybe people will believe you" ... meaning ME ... and insinuating that I'm lying.

You said "maybe people will believe you" ... meaning ME ... and insinuating that I'm lying. Calling me a liar, basically.

He has had others in SC since then where he had their support.

Which ones?

[vsrazdem]

33. I'm not calling you a liar. Your description was accurate, it was just not complete.

What I am insinuating is incorrect is your concept that Bernie does not have any African American support. Bernie and Biden are both leading in the polls for African American support. As far as what events in SC, they were posted here on DU. I am not going to do your work for you. If you want to deal in facts and not just conjecture, then you should look them up.

[NurseJackie]

45. His support among the AA community and other POC is tepid and tenative, AT BEST.

His support among the AA community and other POC is tepid and tenative, AT BEST.

But I really can't blame anyone in the AA community for shying away and avoiding supporting someone who believes that the Democrats "focus too much" on diversity.

I think it's also fair to say that the AA community isn't likely to view warmly a candidate who argues that people who the refuse to vote for an African-American because of his skin color "aren't racists".

[vsrazdem]

57. More than half of black voters have a favorable view of Sanders, and yes whether that transitions in

votes will not be known until the primaries start, but I would not call it tepid.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/black-voters-like-bernie-sanders-just-fine-they-just-might-like-other-candidates-more/


A December 2018 Quinnipiac poll found that 55 percent of black voters had a favorable view of Sanders, while 26 percent had an unfavorable view. (Clinton was at 62-22.) Most more recent polls didn’t publish candidates’ favorability with specific demographic groups. (Often the sample sizes aren’t big enough for the results to be meaningful.) But we reached out to Morning Consult, which is doing regular polling of the 2020 race and so amasses fairly large samples of racial and demographic groups. According to their national polling conducted March 18-24, 71 percent of black Democrats had a favorable view of Sanders, compared to 10 percent who had an unfavorable view.

[NurseJackie]

62. Ah... the "Morning Consult" poll.

[vsrazdem]

63. And the quinnipiac poll, but maybe you have a better one to look at.

[SWBTATTReg]

34. Really. A lot of us in the rest of the country kind of wouldn't mind having our opinion heard ...

too, on what candidate(s) should make it into the final stages of a campaign. I'm Iowa'ed out, and also, NH'ed out. I am sick and tired of these two states grabbing all of the rings in the merry go round that's to come.

[highplainsdem]

4. Sanders won the NH primary in 2016, too, but didn't get the nomination.

[George II]

6. Even then he barely cracked 60% although NH's population fits his demographic perfectly.

[Demsrule86]

12. Good point.

[artislife]

25. And Joe Biden never got the nomination

both times he ran for president.

We shouldn't judge the future on the past, or should we? You tell me.

[BannonsLiver]

26. A lot of Sanders supporters do that every day

[highplainsdem]

29. The difference is that Biden's leading in most polls now. And btw, even this

NH poll favoring Sanders has Biden leading Sanders when people are asked which candidate is most likable.

[artislife]

31. So early

Biden seems to always jump out quick. I loved him in 88 until the fizzle.

Three times the charm?

[artislife]

42. Welcome to DU

I think I have my explanation.




Thanks for making your "first" post to me.

[artislife]

49. Thanks for reminding me

to buy some more socks.

[George II]

32. He never earnestly ran for President the last two times, for a variety of reasons....

....he withdrew both times before the first primary was held.

[Autumn]

70. Really? He wasn't REALLY serious, see, he didn't actually WANT to win...

Sure Joe likes wasting time and money. NOT

[Hassin Bin Sober]

74. He meant to lose.

[Autumn]

75. In 88 he was the strongest candidate till the media reported he had plagiarized a speech

and he dropped out. In 2008 he didn't get enough significant support and he had made some controversial comments about Obama that the press was all over as being over the top. 2016 would have been his time. And he would have won.

[Voltaire2]

85. Oh that.

“I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy,"

That is the sort of self destruction Joe commits every campaign.

[Mr Tibbs]

83. To add context...

He entered that race with 3% name recognition.

[Demsrule86]

7. I would hope Sanders wins New Hamshire...meaningless...now if Biden wins it ...than Sanders should

get out of the primary...not good news for Warren.

[crazytown]

16. Cf Monmouth U: Biden 27 Sanders 16 Buttigieg 9 Harris 7 Warren 7

NH April 4-9
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_ia_041119/

[mobeau69]

17. BOOT EDGE EDGE

Go Pete!

[NurseJackie]

24. He doesn't actually pronounce it that way, does he? Does anyone?

Seems to me like "BOOT a-jedge" is a far more accurate phonetic guide than "boot edge edge".

[RobertDevereaux]

41. I like Buddha-Judge, myself. :)

[Grendam]

59. Not many, but...

I don't like the "BOOT-edge-edge" explanation much (It's on his twitter profile). If anyone catches the CNN Townhall promos for tonight, the voiceover says it just like the recommendation, and it sounds very off.

Wikipedia has the pronunciation transcribed as /ˈbuːtɪdʒədʒ/ or BOOT-ih-jəj. I prefer the former because it's more accurate, but you need some knowledge of the IPA.

I've noticed that Buttigieg doesn't even say his own name consistently the same. The best thing to remember is the last vowel is a schwa [ə] which is basically an unstressed, neutral vowel that will often sound indistinctive. Probably why you hear people say the last syllable as either "jedge," "judge," or "jidge."

[mobeau69]

69. :-)

[George II]

19. Inasmuch as Biden isn't even a candidate yet, this is good news for him.

[highplainsdem]

35. Yep.

[True Dough]

36. True. And just as good or better for Pete Buttigieg

who only entered the national stage officially a few weeks ago. He had essentially no profile at all outside of Indiana just a few months ago. Amazing that he is already at 15% support in NH.

[George II]

39. He only officially entered the race eight days ago, too.

[crazytown]

37. The Raw figures - Unsure 40, Sanders 18 Biden 12 Buttigieg 11 Harris 4

When likely primary voters were asked who they would vote for - before being given the list of names and asked to pick one. On this measure Sanders was down 10, Biden up 3 and Buttigieg up 10

[George II]

40. Interesting, that's a HUGE "undecided", two out of every five polled.

[crazytown]

52. Yes - but it's in line with common sense (& DU?)

... still making up my mind. Then ... if you had to pick one, here is a list on names - and there’s the final results.

[George II]

67. I honestly think polls a year ahead of time are meaningless, but it gets some excited, I guess.

[crazytown]

68. How about a poll one month ahead of time:

CBS Newspoll (National)
12/17/2003

Howard Dean 23%
Wesley Clark 10%
Joe Lieberman 10%
Richard Gephardt 6%
Al Sharpton 5%
John Kerry 4%
John Edwards 2%
Dennis Kucinich 1%

Iowa Caucus
January 19, 2004

John Kerry 38%
John Edwards 32%
Howard Dean 18%
Richard Gephardt 11%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Wesley Clark 0%

Poll: Dean Pulls Away In Dem Race
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-dean-pulls-away-in-dem-race/

[Blue_true]

87. Somebody has not been looking at the democratic primary forum header. nt

[BlueFlorida]

48. B rated pollster and this particular poll is worthless.

Five hundred forty-nine (549) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed in English by landline and cellular telephone between April10 and April 18, 2019. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.2 percent. Included in the sample were 208 likely 2020 Republican Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 6.8 percent) and 241 likely 2020 Democratic Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 6.3 percent).

Only 9% have definitely decided, 14% are leaning towards someone and a full 70% are still undecided.

The percentage of Democratic primary voters who are undecided or cannot provide a name (40%) has decreased considerably since August 2018 (65%) as many candidates have begun campaigning in New Hampshire. The number of likely Democratic primary voters who mention Sanders (18%) has declined since February (28%) while the percentage who mention Buƫgieg (11%) has increased markedly since February (1%).

This is most telling:

A plurality of likely Democratic primary voters (40%) could not name a candidate when asked an open-ended question about whom they will vote for in the 2020 Primary. Vermont Senator and 2016 winner Bernie Sanders is mentioned by likely Democratic primary voters most frequently (18%), followed by Former Vice President Joe Biden (12%), and South Bend (IN) Mayor Pete Buƫgieg (11%). Four percent mention California Senator Kamala Harris, and 3% each mention Former Texas Congressman Beto O'Rourke, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, or Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren.

So, the results are 60% of 241 Democrats polled (145) and the MOE for that small a sample is a whopping +/-9.2%

This poll is worthless.

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1557&context=survey_center_polls

[crazytown]

55. Actually the 40% is unsure

What they then do is give those voters a list of names and ask them to pick one.

Here’s the raw figures graph

[BlueFlorida]

60. Well, 40% did not pick a candidate

which means only 60% did. That lowers the sample size for the actual candidate numbers and increases the MOE.

To give an example ...

100 people went for lunch, 40 said they were not hungry and would eat later. Of the remaining, 18% chose hamburger, 12% chose lasagna, 3% chinese, 2% Indian etc. etc. That doesn't mean 18% like hamburger. It only means 18% of 60 like hamburger.

I think this is terrible news for Sanders -- a neighboring state senator who won the primary last time with a 22% margin and a full 40% are still refusing to name? Not a good sign for him. Most of those 40% will end up choosing someone else.

[Blue_true]

88. Why should a pollster include republicans in a Democratic Party primary poll.

That is like putting a poster on one's back saying "Ratfuck me!"

[Nanjeanne]

50. Interesting looking at the data. It appears Mayor Pete is pulling support from Biden as well as

Harris, comparing it with the February data. He does not seem to be pulling support from Sanders at this point.

[Bettie]

64. Right now, Bernie Sanders has

name recognition.

I expect that things will even out as people learn more about other candidates.

[brush]

65. So what? An all-white small state polls for all white males.

South Carolina is the real litmus test.

[Gothmog]

73. This poll is totally worthless-only 9% have selected candidate and 77% have no damn clue.

Link to tweet