Two maps showing what happens if we take WI, MI and PA. Go to the website make your own maps.

[Demsrule86]

Biden is best equipped to rebuild the blue wall. He can appeal to those voters both in terms of moderation and geography. Also next time you are hating on Manchin or other conservadem Senators...look at the map and consider how limited our options are in holding a majority in the Senate without which we will get no judges and no policy.

https://www.270towin.com/


The first map shows no path for an electoral college win for Trump when we win WI,MI and PA

""



The second map shows what happens when we don't win WI, MI and PA.

"""

[jalan48]

1. Good info. It seems selecting a VP that would be popular in those states would help as well.

[Demsrule86]

3. I think Biden would be best as the presidential candidate ...he will take PA for sure...born there.

Even if Biden took Michigan and PA...it puts him at 269 and throws the election into the House...but we may get another state ...we only need 1 EC delegate. How about Biden and Castro...maybe Texas is in play or Biden and Beto for the same reason.

[jalan48]

5. I kinda thought the VP was going to be a woman this time around.

[Demsrule86]

8. It is risky and I don't see a woman who adds to the ticket...in terms of giving us another state.

Can a woman be elected Vice president or President? I am not sure.

[qazplm135]

11. wow

it's "risky" to have a woman as a VP now??

Ridiculously sexist argument. It's not remotely "risky."
VP's almost never actually guarantee a state that wasn't already in the win column anyways.

Obama would have won PA regardless of Biden. Trump would have won Indiana regardless.
Bush would have won TX regardless. Clinton I believe won TN both times, but I'd have to check.

Reagan would have won TX regardless.

You have to go back quite awhile to find a VP that was responsible for winning a state.

[Demsrule86]

18. It is not sexist at all...and maybe Obama would have won the rustbelt without Biden but

we will never know. Hillary Clinton won most of the rustbelt states in the primary...Biden sure helped. He was sent to those states in 08 to campaign, and he pretty much saved Obama in 12...along with the explainer in chief... Bill Clinton. You all want a certain candidate and I get that...but if I didn't think Biden could win, I would pick a different candidate. I want to win and get rid of Trump who is a danger to our Republic.

I see no other candidate who will win a primary that can help us in the states we need. Polls show a significant number of voters are reluctant to vote for a woman...who knows. But the current crop of women candidates don't help us in the states we need to win. They would add little to the ticket. I would pick Stacy Abrams before I picked any of the current candidates. she might deliver Georgia and maybe some other southern states. I would consider Castro for the same reason in Texas...reach out to the Latina vote and put Texas in play...maybe a longshot. It is all about the numbers for me. I like all our candidates with the exception of Sanders and Gabbard (being honest). I will vote for the Democratic nominee no matter who it is. But if you look at that map, it is going to be a tough election. The rustbelt is our ticket to ousting Trump and candidate most likely to do that is Biden.

[qazplm135]

27. then you are blind

if you can see no other candidate that will win that can help us in those three states.

It's a ridiculous position based on nothing.

[Demsrule86]

30. Show me how they win...

Explain further.

[qazplm135]

33. you're the one who made the original claim

let me know when you have any more "proof" that Biden can win those states than any other candidate.

You don't because not much if any polling has been done, and any polling done at this point is completely meaningless.

So all you really have is a theory. No evidence, just your belief.

[Demsrule86]

36. I showed you the map...talked about georgraphyand but you can't show me because none can win the

states we need...save Ryan. I also mentioned the midterms...I made a case for my opinion.

[qazplm135]

42. Lol

No you didn't. You made an a priori statement....but didn't actually provide any evidence to support it. No polling, nothing.

You just made a claim not only that Biden would win three states you picked, but that no one else could.

Then you basically said no women for either slot.

It's ridiculous.

[Demsrule86]

50. Tell me how you see these candidates stopping Trump in the midwest...rebuilding the blue wall.

[qazplm135]

61. ummmm...

by winning those three states where Trump is currently WAY under water in approval??

Seems pretty obvious that's possible.

[Demsrule86]

64. He had about the same popularity as now...not that much different.

Those voters won't vote for left left..

[qazplm135]

70. sigh

Harris isn't left left, neither is Buttigieg, or Klobachur, or Beto, or Booker...

[Demsrule86]

71. The positions Harris has taken will allow the right to brand her as left...unfairly

Not that there is anything wrong with being left. I am a progressive. But for the voters we are going after being called a leftist and /or a socialist will her candidates And the problem is Harris and the others save Sanders ( he has his own issues) don't have the history to fight this sort of thing. None of them do...Biden's long service in government is a double edged sword. It allows some to attack him but it also helps with attacks because people have heard it all before. So even though Biden's positions are not much different than most Democrats...when he is attacked people know him and shrug it off.

[qazplm135]

74. This is just blind opinion

It's no better than the Bernie folks who think only their guy can win.

I'm done with this conversation, it's fruitless.

[Celerity]

43. A Biden/Ryan ticket is a disaster waiting to happen for Joe

2 centrist white males from a narrow geographical area, with one of them on record as comparing Pelosi to Trump in terms of popularity (and campaigning hard to try and dump her as speaker.)

That ticket is extremely problematic for women, POC, Pelosi supporters, and progressives. It doesn't widen the map and all and runs the major risk of depressing turnout in the base as well as the left.

You simply are far too fixated on the older, white male lunchbucket demographic in just a few midwest states. A large reason (one of many) Clinton lost in 2016 was a big downward trend in A-A voting nationwide, and especially in key midwest and southern cities (and an uptick in A-A's voting Republican). Kaine was a bad VP pick. Ryan is even worse. There is no hard evidence he even delivers Ohio.

Harris is going to have issues with her 100-day gun law executive order threat. I have no idea why she came out with that, the NRA and other gunner scum are going to go wild over that.

Klobuchar is far too centrist (probably after Delaney the least to the left Dem in the race). She will be more problematic for progressive left than even Ryan I think.

Abrams would be Joe's best choice by far, IMHO, but we SO need the Senate back and she has at least a 50/50 shot at taking out Trump-humper Perdue. Maybe Jon Ossoff can try again (well it is a step up from his Rep race) if Joe picks Stacey.

Biden/Abrams is probably the strongest ticket we could run out. I think she runs for Senate though, unless Biden starts to really falter by July or early August.

[Demsrule86]

51. We need to balance the ticket so I don't see the benefit for Klobachar or Ryan as VP...

Stacy Abrams or Castro who is from Texas...maybe we get Texas.

[Demsrule86]

52. This may be crazy but how about Michelle Obama is she would do it...I know I know...probably not

happening. I think she could help us win despite misogyny and then would run in time...for female president who could probably win a landslide.

[Celerity]

60. she has pretty much (not a faux stance, unfortunately IMHO) really slammed the door on ever running

She was my number one choice in 2016 and now, but she will not ever run I would wager. She doesn't have the pure power desire (which makes me want her more! lolol) to put herself through it.

I think Jon Ossoff can beat Perdue (he came really close to winning in 2017 in a really red district that had TONNES of shady Rethug manoeuvring) if Biden has coattails and there would be no GA coattails like Abrams coattails if she is Joe's VP. Abram put NC and GA completely in paly, and will also help (massively) the POC vote in the Midwest (and nationwide).

Still am vexed that Kamala Harris came out with that 100 day executive action gun law statement. That will HURT in the Midwest and elsewhere if Biden picks her. Plus she is all in on MFA (not just a public option). As for Texas, I do not think even Beto can deliver it. It is going to be turbo-charged with RW thug haters (Rump won it by 800,000 in 2016). I do think Biden can maybe bring in Arizona and Abrams probably won't hurt. Abrams also helps put FL in play IMHO.

[Demsrule86]

68. Yeah I agree with you.

but like I have said a girl can dream sigh...

[Honeycombe8]

99. The Obamas have moved on.They're living the high life, having fun, producing films....

they are not going to get into the grind and seedy world of politics again. Except that as former President and First Lady, they make statements, endorse, a speech here and there.

They have some great films coming out on Netflix.

[Demsrule86]

101. That's good but I miss them.

[lunasun]

132. oh yeah that is all they are doing now days

No cares so uninvolved elitist almost
https://www.obama.org/

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/12/obamas-political-group-shifts-focus-gerrymandering/578770/

just an example or two

[Sunlei]

119. She said no, believe her. She is very, very busy with Obama Foundation work.

[Demsrule86]

72. If you looked at the map, you would realize the importance of those few lunchbucket states.

We don't have popular vote elections...we have an electoral college, and all Trump has to do is hold the usual GOP places and win WI, MI and PA for an electoral college win. So honestly a Ryan would make sense geographically...and for these particular voters. As for Nancy Pelosi, I love her and called Ryan and yelled at him for it. But AOC also attacked Nancy...so it wasn't just Ryan. It came from the moderate wing (new house majority was won by moderates so they are newly empowered) and the left wing.

[Celerity]

73. here we go again with the AOC-attacked Pelosi bullshit, give it a rest please

It is not a good look to keep on relentless repeated debunked RW and twitter toll pushed garbage.

Also, Ryan is not going to be the VP

Lunchbucket voters going to Trump was NOT the only reason Tump won those 3 states. I have in massive detail in other posts, the African American vote collapsed there (and many black men, more than usual, voted Rethug as well) too. Ryan alienates too many core groups to be a viable VP choice. Pelosi fans, woman, POC, and progressive left. He would be a poor, poor choice, worse than Kaine, who was a bad choice as well. The only thing Ryan has over Kaine is that he is a far better speaker. I still have no clue why Hillary picked Kaine. Not a wise choice. Let's not repeat history.

You simply cannot run a good old boy, white male only centrist ticket (with one of them a known anti-Pelosi insurgent) without courting big trouble. I profoundly disagree with you on your anti-female candidates stance. You know this as we have been going back and forth for months. I personally find it offensive to be told over and over and over that the country is too misogynistic to run a woman. Did you same the same thing about Obama running in 2008, just flipped to a black man can not win in this country, it is too racist?

[Demsrule86]

75. It has never been debunked...it is factual. She faced a challenge on the right and left.

I am not advocating any VP. Biden will choose But you are wrong about Tim Ryan. He is a good guy. He has done much good for Ohio.

[Celerity]

124. it was debunked on so many threads here

A since-banned member kicked it all off long ago by posting a twitter troll's post accusing AOC of attacking Pelosi, which was a direct mimic of a couple RW sites.

That member (and others who joined in the swarm) tried to characterise the climate change demonstration as 'AOC & her sign carrying group' are trying to stab Pelosi in the back. That was pure rubbish as was easily borne out wen the video of what she actually said was seen.

AOC didn't organise it and only spoke to them briefly during which she said

“We need to tell her (Speaker Pelosi) that we’ve got her back in showing and pursuing the most progressive energy agenda that this country has even seen. This is about unity. This is about solidarity and the fact that we are going to make a better future for our kids, and we know that she is going to be there with us. That's what this is about."

here is a timeline

1. Something happened at the Capitol Tuesday to reaffirm my long-held view that liberals should stop believing what conservatives say liberals believe.

2. One of the biggest obstacles in the history of American liberalism has been this tendency among liberals to accept as true things liberalism’s enemies say about it and them.

3. Newly elected members of the US Congress arrived for orientation. @Ocasio2018spoke at a sit-in featuring about 200 people outside Nancy Pelosi’s office.

4. The “protest,” as it was called, was organized by an advocacy group aiming to raise awareness about climate change and to advocate for more green-energy jobs.

5. This was manna to Ocasio-Cortez, who made history as the youngest woman ever elected to Congress after unseating US Rep. Joe Crowley, the former No. 3 in the House Democratic leadership.

6. The 29-year-old Latina has been stumping for liberal candidates across the country, making liberal arguments in unapologetically liberal ways. That she spoke with activists demanding action from leading liberals should have come as no surprise to anyone any time anywhere.

7. But then came this bit of disinformation from the spokeswoman of Paul Ryan to Capitol Hill reporters, which set the tone for the entire day: "Huh, well this is unconventional," AshLee Strong wrote in an email. "The incoming speaker is getting protested by one of her freshman."

8. From this point onward, Ocasio-Cortez wasn’t doing what a young dynamic liberal legislator does. No, no, no! She was “protesting” Pelosi!

9. AshLee Strong paved the way for every Capitol Hill reporter to tell a story they had been wanting to tell even though the narrative” was based on a falsehood: that this unruly mob can’t be controlled.

10. This “narrative” drew the ire of liberals who would have otherwise cheered Ocasio-Cortez. It rekindled the battle between the youngs and the olds, between “centrists” and “leftists,” and between “insurgents” and “the establishment.”

11. Worse, it inspired some liberals to trot out the old (often vaguely sexist) nomenclature: Ocasio-Cortez was grandstanding. She was showboating. She was this, that, and whatever. Too many liberals accepted as true what liberalism’s enemies said about it and them.

12. Thing is, when you actually listen to the women, a different picture comes to light. Not only was Ocasio-Cortez doing what young dynamic liberal legislators are supposed to do—bring new energy and new ideas to the table—

13. she was charting her own course while forging alliances with established powers. She created a bridge between an energized under-30 base & the party’s leadership. She’ll likely be an invaluable ally as Pelosi plots a way forward.

14. Few can say they’ve accomplished more on their first day.

15. Bloomberg reported the incident was a challenge to “party unity.” The Times said earlier these renegades may be unwilling to “toe the party line.” Fox’s Laura Ingraham thrilled at the sight of Nancy Pelosi trying to wrangle newly elected “insurgents.”

None of it was true.

16. As is the case when women rise to power, people are eager to project onto them what they want to see, and are not listening to what they are actually saying.

17. Reporters can be trusted to frame politics in conservative terms. That’s what happened. Right-wing media can be trusted to cement the view that the Democrats are “a mob” and risk “overplaying their hand.” That’s what happened. But liberals ought to know better.

18. Here is what Ocasio-Cortez said to activists:

Should Leader Pelosi become the next Speaker of the House, we need to tell her that we’ve got her back in showing and pursuing the most progressive energy agenda that this country has ever seen.

19. Later, to the news media:

AOC: One of the things I admire so much about Leader Pelosi is that she comes from a space of activism and organizing. And so I think that she really appreciates civic engagement. What I’m here to do is to support the folks who are here. …

20. AOC: This is about uplifting the voice and the message of the fact that we need a Green New Deal and we need to get to 100 percent renewables because our lives depend on it. …

***We are here to back [Pelosi] up.***

21. To which, Pelosi said: We are inspired by the energy and activism of the many young activists and advocates leading the way on the climate crisis …

22. Pelosi: We welcome the presence of these activists, and we strongly urge the Capitol Police to allow them to continue to organize and participate in our democracy.

23. Um, yeah, no. This was not a protest, as Republican AshLee Strong said. It was activism. This was not disunity. It was unity.

24. This isn’t the Tea Party. This isn’t a conservative party. It’s a liberal and democratic party. Reporters should cover it as such if only for the purpose of accurately representing reality.

25. But liberals weren’t listening either. They should have been. Instead, they accepted as true what liberalism’s enemies said about it and them.



Later on AOC came out (unlike Ryan and a lot of other 'centrists' New Democrat Caucus members and the centre-right Problem Solvers caucus) SUPPORTED Pelosi for Speaker. I documented the actual opposition by the centrists here.


Ocasio-Cortez supports Nancy Pelosi in House speaker race

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is in Nancy Pelosi’s corner.

The 29-year-old progressive star, who will become the youngest member of Congress, criticized a letter signed by 16 Democrats calling for new leadership and announcing they will not vote for Pelosi as House speaker.

“When I was reading this letter that was kind of released today, my main concern was that there is no vision, there is no common value, there is no goal that is really articulated in this letter aside from ‘We need to change,’” Ocasio-Cortez said on MSNBC on Monday evening.

She noted the lack of racial and ideological diversity among the signers and the absence of a “broad-based coalition” and warned Democrats that they could become more conservative.

“I mean if anything, I think that what it does is that it creates a window where we could potentially get more conservative leadership and when you actually look at the signatories, it is not necessarily reflective of the diversity of the party,” said Ocasio-Cortez, who shocked longtime Queens political boss Joe Crowley in a June primary election victory.

snip

as opposed to Ryan.......


Tim Ryan signs letter pledging to vote against Nancy Pelosi for House Speaker

https://www.cleveland.com/politics/2018/11/tim-ryan-signs-letter-pledging-to-vote-against-nancy-pelosi-for-house-speaker.html

CLEVELAND, Ohio – U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan and 15 other members of the incoming Congress committed to withholding their vote for Nancy Pelosi as House speaker, even on the floor of the House.

The move is unusual. Unlike caucus leader elections, the speaker is chosen by the entire House. Typically, members support the agreed-upon candidate of their party, even after contentious internal deliberations.

Ryan, a Youngstown-area Democrat, and the other members said in a Monday letter that they were committed to changing the leadership in the House, following significant victories nationwide. Many of the incoming Democratic representatives actively opposed Pelosi during the election after Republicans made her a defining issue in congressional races.

snip

[Demsrule86]

134. Time will tell.

[Sunlei]

120. Here is what happens in the "rust belt" now AND in 2016

notice in 2016 how Sanders pointed out TRADE as an issue in 2016? Well trade loss to rust belt is certainly a HUGE issue today. Biden would be very wise to discuss trade issues if he goes & speaks to the rust belt voters and to Pa., Mi, Wis.



Sanders sees path to beating Trump in Rust Belt | TheHill


https://thehill.com/homenews/.../438710-sanders-sees-path-to-beating-trump-in-rust-b...






Apr 13, 2019 - Bernie Sanders's aides and advisers are convinced that he is the ... Friday on a four-day campaign swing through the Rust Belt that will take ...





Bernie Sanders Pitches Progressive Policies to Rust Belt ... - Bloomberg


https://www.bloomberg.com/.../sanders-pitches-progressive-policies-to-rust-belt-voters...






Apr 15, 2019 - Bernie Sanders asked Rust Belt voters to embrace his most ... all states that Trump narrowly won in 2016 that will be crucial again in 2020.





Bernie Sanders' Rust Belt rebound - POLITICO


https://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/bernie-sanders-rust-belt-rebound-220478






Mar 9, 2016 - Bernie Sanders' Rust Belt rebound. The senator's ... “But the people of Michigan surely do, and Bernie Sanders does too.” Sanders' big win ...





Bernie Sanders' Rust Belt rebellion: Is trade a winning issue? - BBC ...


https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-35767842






Mar 10, 2016 - Many were surprised when Hillary Clinton lost the Michigan primary to Bernie Sanders. ... Americans' attitudes toward trade in the so-called Rust Belt states? ... In the Michigan primary, voters can request either party ballot on

[Honeycombe8]

93. But Biden & Kaine were from different geographical areas...

I personally think Kaine was a mistake as VP choice. But Biden was picked for various reasons, I think: different area of the country, rust belt, appeal to white middle class blue collar workers (a weak segment for Obama), his knowledge & experience in foreign policy, his national name recognition and likability....

Choosing a VP is about strategy.

[treestar]

114. That may not be true anymore anyway

Biden would never even be VP. His state only brings 3 votes. Same with Palin.

I recall the right wing making fun that Gore did not get his state. However now the states no longer care about having a POTUS or VPOTUS from their state - they care more about the ideology. Texas may go red anyway, even if a Texan is on the ticket.

[jalan48]

15. Klobuchar is from that area. She would seem to be the best fit.

[Demsrule86]

19. She would be the only one who might help the ticket...Minnesetoa is different than the states

Last edited Tue Apr 30, 2019, 06:26 PM - Edit history (1)

mentioned. And she would put no other state in play.

[Honeycombe8]

95. That's what I was thinking. I like her, too.

Does MN help, I wonder?

[jalan48]

103. I would think she would help more in those states than Harris. Harris will do well in the South but

we won't win those states in the general election.

[pangaia]

25. " Can a woman be elected Vice president or President? I am not sure." ??

WOW !!!

Just WOW !!

A woman was elected president last time.

[Demit]

54. Good reminder.

[Demsrule86]

76. And I want a woman president.

[Merlot]

10. Being born there is no guarentee

Gore lost Tennessee.

Also, if Biden is the nominee, you can bet that repubs/putin will pour millions into PA. It will be a point of pride for them to win that state.

[Demsrule86]

14. Big difference...Tennessee was gone by the time he ran for president for us...the blue wall is not

as shown by polls...my maps show one thing, we rebuild the blue wall or we lose to Trump. And our losses would continue. What is our path if we don't rebuild the blue wall even in future elections? Biden gives us the best opportunity to do so. People here forget how important having ties to a states or a neighboring state is.

[Sugarcoated]

63. The bad guys will do that anyway

They've tried and tried, and in the last 30 years it hasn't worked. That is, until we ran a candidate that just enough blue collar rust belt Democrats didn't pull the lever for, and that was WITH Russian propaganda and crooked Don really working the state and he only won it by a whisker. Joe Biden is well loved here and those same union Dems will eagerly go to the polls for Joe, and to vote out a traitor.

I've lived in the Delaware Valley nearly my whole life, Joe speaks our language, Philly accent and all.

[Demsrule86]

77. I lived in Matamoras PA some years ago.

Nice area

[Sugarcoated]

78. Not sure where that is

I'll look it up

[Demsrule86]

92. 60 miles or so from New York City..,Delaware water gap...tri-state area.

We backed up to both Jersey and upstate New York.

[qazplm135]

2. so your argument is that Biden alone can win those three states??

Clinton barely lost those three states.

We have a half dozen candidates AT LEAST as attractive a candidate as she is.
ANY of them can win those three states.

[Demsrule86]

6. What candidates who are currently running will rebuild the blue wall

other than Biden? You think a candidate from California or New York can do it? It is Geography 101 combined with an understanding of who won the midterms and gave us the house. Biden and Ryan are from the area. No one else is. The voters we are going after are moderate like the Democrats who won us back the house...we have few opportunities outside of these three states...and if we consider the Senate it makes me want to sob...so tough for us to win a majority... not possible without senators like Manchin. We need someone who can beat Trump...Biden can do that.

[qazplm135]

9. lol

so a candidate has to be from a midwest state to win a midwest state??

Beto isn't a moderate?
Harris isn't pretty darn moderate?
Buttigieg isn't a moderate? He isn't "from the area?" Pretty sure Indiana is pretty darn close to MI and WI.

The only two non-moderates among the contenders are Warren and Sanders.

Please stop with this "my candidate is the only one" crap.

It's no better than when Sander's supporters pull it.

[Demsrule86]

12. You need Geography to rebuild the blue wall...and Kamala is not moderate enough...Beto is

not doing well outside of Texas.

[Desert grandma]

57. Democrats might do well to nominate Julian Castro as VP

He would help turn Texas blue, and in addition be quite popular with Hispanics. In the end, however, it will be up to the nominee to pick his/her running mate.

[Demsrule86]

67. I agree with you.

[Demsrule86]

13. Mayor Pete is a great guy but will not win in the rustbelt. He won a very blue city in Indiana.

[leftofcool]

84. How do you know this a year out?

So far, he has been to several rust belt areas and been quite well received.

[Demsrule86]

86. I live in the rustbelt. And I have read some of what he said about manufacturing.

It won't Play here,

[leftofcool]

87. You mean the truth about automation?

[Demsrule86]

89. It is a factor but not now ...mostly a convenient excuse... Delphi sent presses

to Mexico along with jobs. There was no robots involved....you go to the midwest with that message and Trump gets four more years, I will not support Mayor Pete given these statements in the primary...sure a general but not
in a primary.

[marylandblue]

137. It's clear you never intended to vote for anybody but Biden.

[marylandblue]

90. What did he say?

[Demsrule86]

91. That job losses are due to robotics... and some jobs are lost that way,

But most jobs being shipped out right now are due to moving jobs and equipment I might add to low wage countries . Don't come here and say shit about robotics...not.true. Everyone knows someone who lost their job in Lordstown . Also many parts plants closed as a result of Lordstown.

[leftofcool]

94. I suppose telling the truth has it's disadvantages

[Demsrule86]

97. But it is not true,..job losses here are due to moving jobs overseas,

[leftofcool]

106. Correct

But what Pete was trying to explain is this: Trump promises to bring these jobs back which we all know is a lie. Those jobs will never come back and any new manufacturing plants that do come in will be mostly automated so we have to train people for new jobs. This is basically what Hillary said.

[Demsrule86]

108. The jobs have to come back and they could with proper support for

Manufacturing. Don't make it in profitable to ship jobs overseas . Tariff foreign competitors who don't allow our car in their country. You tell the midwest the jobs are gone,so are votes for Democrats. So don't shrug and say oh well. We will lose presidential elections forever if we lose the blue wall. White collar jobs are going overseas now too. It is wrong. i like mayor Pete but he is off my primary list.

[marylandblue]

96. And what did Biden say about this? Has he explained his vote on NAFTA?

And does he plan to reverse it?

[Demsrule86]

109. Yes he has. And more recently has a great record on labor. He would never

Say what mayor Pete said. Biden knows we have to have manufacturing jobs. Biden has a great record more recently and an 85% lifetime rating on manufacturing.

[marylandblue]

113. I looked into what Pete said. He never said we don't need manufacturing jobs

And he did say we have lost jobs due to NAFTA. His many point is that in the near future, automation will be a bigger threat. And he thinks small, specialty manufacturing can help replace the soon to be automated plants. I could not find any position on trade agreements, but he is pro-union.

[Demsrule86]

133. He said we lost 6 jobs to robotics for every 1 job to globalism...

that job losses are the result of robots taking jobs...not true . This is a typical excuse used by globalist for shipping jobs overseas. Mayor Pete won't take the rustbelt which such views.

[marylandblue]

135. Is he wrong? And he has not taken a position on trade agreements

so it's unfair to say it's a globalist excuse until he does take a position.

[leftofcool]

83. Agreed

[Funtatlaguy]

4. Another path is to win Fla and either AZ or NC

[Demsrule86]

7. All the rustbelt states (MI, WI and PA) have Democratic governors elected or reelectd in 18

Florida elected a Republican governor and Senator. The polls show there is strong support for Trump. It is unlikely we can carry Florida. We haven't won North Carolina since Obama's first run and we have never run Arizona that I remember, but we have a good chance in the rustbelt where polls show that voters are angry with Trump and who have kicked out Republican governors in WI and MI and who reelected a Democratic governor by a landslide in PA. You play the odds...the blue wall makes more sense

[StevieM]

17. We are better off widening the map.

We will target all of those states. It would be crazy to focus on a narrower path to victory.

We were going to win North Carolina, Florida and Arizona in 2016, but Comey put an end to all of that. Without Comey and Putin we would have won the 2016 election by a wide margin.

[Demsrule86]

21. It is called a blue wall...it saves us from defeat.

We need a moderate nominee to win in NC, FL and AZ. We have never won Arizona by the way. I am hopeful... Biden can win the rustbelt and broaden the map. A moderate won the Senate in Arizona in 18... we lost both a Senate seat and failed to gain a governorship in Florida in 18. As for North Carolina who knows? We still have a gerrymander to deal with. I sure wouldn't count on it as we have not won it since 2008. The blue wall prevents a defeat and gives us an opening to expand the map.

[StevieM]

26. We did win Arizona in 1996. And we would have won it in 2016 had it not been for Comey.

As for North Carolina, HRC was leading there throughout the race, until the Comey intervention. It was wise of her to target that state and we should target it again in 2020.

We lost Florida in 2018 because Gillum was swift boated and took down the rest of the ticket with him--the exact same thing that happened nationally in 2016.

[Demsrule86]

31. 96? Interestiing...Clinton's second term...That was 23 years ago...and I have no idea why you think

would have won it in 96.

[StevieM]

39. I assume you meant to say in 16.

And I think we would have won it because many polls had us in ahead and I completely reject the claim that the polls were wrong. The polls were right--and then they changed, because of Comey and Putin.

I also reject the assertion that Comey's multiple interventions only marginally altered the race. I believe the evidence shows that he turned the race upside down repeatedly. Without his illegitimate interference we would have destroyed Trump. And that includes winning Arizona.

[Demsrule86]

48. I did mean 16. Thanks for that...but a longtime DUer says that he would not count on Arizona.

I have hope after our Senate win but it was very close and I just don't believe you we can put all our eggs in the Arizona basket. Trump is living in the rustbelt for a reason...deny him those states and he loses.

[AlexSFCA]

56. winning rustbelt would not only destroy trump

but also trumpism.

[Demsrule86]

69. That would be awesome.

[Honeycombe8]

98. Let's not rehash the 2016 election. nt

[Demsrule86]

110. Trump is looking to win in the same three states as in 16...

It could happen without the right candidate.

[Honeycombe8]

115. I was reminding you....

I started to respond about the Comey misconception which, despite evidence to the contrary, people still believe. There is no evidence that Comey impacted Clinton negatively. Jill Stein likely impacted her more. There is one late poll, right before the election, that showed Clinton ahead by 4 or so points with just Clinton vs. Trump, but Trump ahead by 2 or so points with Jill Stein in the mix.

I have a list of all the latest polls (11/7 & 11/8), with each poll result followed by the most recent same poll before that time (usu. 10/28). Comey's October surprise was 10/28. The comparisons show little difference between those two time periods. In some Clinton notched down a tad, in others she notched UP.

Because of those polls, immediately after the election results, I wondered if Russia had hacked some election results, because the results did not at all jive with the thrust of ALL of the polls. There was no reason to think that Comey had had any impact. I believe that people were tired of hearing about the emails and disregarded any further statements about them, whether the statements came from Trump or Comey or anyone else.

But I thought if I'd responded to your post, that we both might be alerted on. Because we are not supposed to be rehashing the 2016 election. Still, you threw in a misstatement of fact that needed to be corrected, IMO. If your post was really just about how it applies to 2020, there would have been no need to rehash the WHY of it all. There was criticism at the time that Clinton had not focused on the rust belt, and that had an impact on results. Like I said, though, my immediate impression was that Russia may have hacked results in certain key swing districts in those states, and since the election results were going to be close, that was enough to swing those districts.

The Russian interference has not been resolved, so it could happen again.

[Funtatlaguy]

20. Trump approval at 45% N.C., 44% Fla, 43% AZ,

But, yes, those are tougher Dem states than PA, WI, MI that all 3 are at 42%.
Remember too, though, that we really need AZ and N.C. (and possibly GA Senate seats) to get 50.

Southern states would probably need at least one southerner on ticket (I’m counting Texas as a Southwestern State).
So, a Veep with someone like Beto, Castro, Abrams, Gillum might work.

https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/michael-w-chapman/trump-approval-above-50-17-states-including-62-approval-wva

[Demsrule86]

22. A Southernnor would round out the ticket...agree with everything you said.

[mnhtnbb]

123. I think NC is a possibility with Biden. Not sure about any of the other candidates.

[Renew Deal]

16. This is why we need someone that can expand the map rather than just fighting to keep the old one.

[Demsrule86]

23. We need to win and there is little chance of expansion...I would not bet on AZ, NC or FL.

It is unlikely given the midterms. The Blue wall is a new way of winning by the way before Virginia we had to win either Florida or Ohio.

[VMA131Marine]

28. Year-by-year the demographics are changing in favour of Democrats

especially in places like NC and AZ. AZ in 2018 certainly looked like place a Dem can win in 2020.

[LongtimeAZDem]

29. Do not expect AZ to go blue. If it happens, great, but absolutely do not plan on it.

[Demsrule86]

37. The rustbelt blue wall is a better bet...I think. what do you think about the Senate race?

[LongtimeAZDem]

40. Kelly will have a much harder time than people think, with his stance on the AWB

[Cha]

44. AWB?

[LongtimeAZDem]

45. Assault Weapons Ban. He advocates regulating semiautomatic weapons as the same as

fully automatic ones.

To say that will be a hard sell in Arizona is a massive understatement.

[Cha]

46. Oh yeah.. Thank You..

Be great if Mark Kelly could win in spite of advocating for sensible gun laws.

[LongtimeAZDem]

47. I love the guy, but I don't consider that sensible

[Demsrule86]

80. Given what happened to his wife, maybe some will understand.

[LongtimeAZDem]

82. I understand the emotion, certainly; my brother's family shops at that store

[Demsrule86]

88. Yeah...she will never fully recover...his wife I mean.

[Demsrule86]

79. Sorry to hear that. Baby steps folks, we get nothing without the Senate.

Run on a winning message.

[LongtimeAZDem]

102. Agreed

[Demsrule86]

32. Sure Demographics are changing but not in the states we need and not soon enough. We must defeat

Trump in 20 or I don't think it will matter going forward.

[tymorial]

24. I can't wait for the day we take Texas from that grubby little hands

The GOP will be screwed. You can bet the day after the election they will we talkin about how antiquated the electoral college is. You can also be certain that all of the red States will be in line to sign the national vote compact agreement

[Demsrule86]

34. I want Texas too..it will happen maybe this year... but we can't count on it. As for

the electoral college. There are enough small state to block it...and can I just say that is foolish for us to switch to popular vote if the GOP doesn't...gives them two ways to win.

[tymorial]

35. Oh I dont disagree in regards to the electoral college.

My point was that without Texas the GOP would have very little chance of winning the presidency under the Electoral College. They would need every single swing state which is highly unlikely .

Many Democrats and some traditional blue States are in favor of switching to a national popular vote systen but the Republicans are dead set against it. If they lost Texas I would imagine their opinion would change immediately.

[Demsrule86]

81. Very true. They would have little chance,

[trueblue2007]

38. TEXAS will be MORE blue !!!!

[marylandblue]

41. Your entire argument is.

1) Here's a map.
2) Here's a guy from an important place on the map.
3) The guy from an important place on the map and only the guy from the important place on the map can win important places on the map.
4) I PERSONALLY can't see any other people who can win those important places and I PERSONALLY can't see any other important places.
5) You can't prove to ME that my PERSONAL OPINION is wrong, therefore I am right.
6) If you doubt this, go back to step 1.

Masterful work. Have you consider a career as a political consultant? You could make millions by matching up important people with important places on a map.

[Demsrule86]

49. I presented facts...Trumps only path to victory is in PA, WI and MI. He has sent people to PA

and held a rally there Joe is from PA. He will win that state as he is beloved in that state He is an attractive candidate in the Midwest...new polls out today showing Joe with a commanding lead with Black women 49% in Morning Consult and 50% in CNN. He holds a commanding lead overall...double digits. He is leading Sanders in New Hampshire. Biden is the one who will defeat Trump...sure it is an opinion based on polls and the electoral map which shows me how we win and how we lose. I don't want a popular vote win without the electoral college again...because it is still a loss and Trump gets to stay in the White House...this can not be allowed to happen.

[marylandblue]

55. Yes, your opinion, that's my point. You hammer this as if it were a done deal.

He is leading in the polls today. That does not mean he will be leading in the polls a year from now. Front runners have had big falls before.

Nobody will neglect the rust belt this time around.

[Demsrule86]

111. Where else can Trump win?

We take those states and it is over.

[marylandblue]

116. That's step 6 of your circular argument where we circle back to "here's a map."

[Demsrule86]

131. You didn't answer the question.

[marylandblue]

136. What for? All you do is look at a map and say you don't see it.

The go back to Biden and only Biden can win because of a map.

[Demit]

58. Don't forget the results of polls being taken nine months before the primaries!

Those are totally indicative and are going to stay exactly the same. I mean, QED, dude.

[Demsrule86]

112. They hint at what will come.

[marylandblue]

117. You are doing much more than "hinting."

[Demsrule86]

130. I am expressing my opinion. Biden can rebuild the blue wall. I don't see other candidates

doing so.

[Demit]

121. How he campaigns will determine what comes.

As much as you stare at your tea leaves, and throw your bones, the future unfolds based on real things. Not the hopeful thinking of devoted fans on discussion boards intent on convincing everyone else of one candidate's inevitability.

[AlexSFCA]

53. I think we should be able to win AZ

Sinema won senate seat in 2018. We should also be able to win Florida - Nelson and Gillum almost won.

[Demsrule86]

65. I am not counting on it...a sitting senator was taken down in Florida and we always think we will

win Arizona and never do.

[LongtimeAZDem]

85. Sinema is a centrist, and her opponent ran such a horrible campaign that even some Republicans

called her out on it. Even then, it was down to the wire.

[AlexSFCA]

105. certainly no more centrist than Biden and trump is much less acceptable than mcsally

Sinema - openly bisexual and the only senator with no religious affiliation (atheist) - not bad for a centrist! I say dems will win AZ in 2020 and will pick another dem senator seat. Mcsally wants to run again and she will have even tougher oppenent to beat.

[Demsrule86]

129. I hope so.

[Amimnoch]

59. here's 2016 with JUST Texas flipped:

Last edited Wed May 1, 2019, 06:17 AM - Edit history (1)

All of our candidates have similar chances at pulling the traditional battleground states when it comes down to it, probably a bit extra favor in the Rust belt for Biden and Pete,

Beto is the main one that can pull a single state conversion win, AND still have a good chance of pulling in a few of the Rust belt states.

Beto also has a proven history of bumping down ticket candidates as well (my own district in Texas is blue for the first time since the 1960's when George HW Bush took the seat).

Beto could also pull some of the battlegrounds + Texas making for an even prettier win:

[crazytown]

62. Um That's Texas AND Arizona?

[Demsrule86]

66. Without Arizona that is 270 ...bare minimum. This brings home that we have to rebuild the blue wall.

[Amimnoch]

107. Thanks. edited and fixed.

It does still push the point I was peddling. Any campaign that puts Texas at all in play makes a major change to the dynamics of the GE.

Texas flips, and it’s over for Cheetolini.

No other red state flipping alone can make that same claim.

Beto being on the ticket doesn’t take any of the other potential swing states out of play. He does add Texas to the list of possible flips.

Texas is also looking like it will have Jaoquin Castro running for Senate putting a strong Senate race in play. Beto being on our Presidential ticket will improve Castro’s chances of unseating Cornyn in the Senate, and Jaoquin’s campaign could help Beto’s chance of making the Texas flip happen.

[Bayard]

100. None of the above

What if Biden would pick none of his fellow campaigners? I'm thinking that might be the best thing. We wouldn't be losing any of our seats in Congress. Think outside the box.

Are there any women Dem governors (or former) who might fit the bill? Past Cabinet members?

There's always Oprah!

[Demsrule86]

125. That is a good point. VPS don't have to be current candidates.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

104. Last I saw we were losing NV. On MI WI and PA we

Should NOT count on them. TRussia "won" these last time.

[Demsrule86]

126. It is our only shot.

[Sunlei]

118. Rs used the same maps when they managed to disinfranchise & spoiler vote small percent.

a very small percent couple thousand disenfranchised and about 2% votes to spoilers handed Rs the 'win'

[Demsrule86]

127. No doubt, but it is how they win. How else can we win?

[mnhtnbb]

122. I think Biden could take NC. Not sure any of the other candidates could do that.

[Demsrule86]

128. That would be great.

If we win only Michigan and Pennsylvania, we throw it into a Democratically controlled house... it is our only play.