Let's talk about another Trumpian shutdown on the horizon.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about another Trumpian shutdown on the horizon.

The US has just sort of returned to normal after Republicans created the longest shutdown in American history so they could raise the cost of health care for millions, which was really just about avoiding admitting the one Big Beautiful Bill abandoned the working class. But another shutdown could be right around the corner. As part of the deal that ended the last shutdown, Congress has until January 30th to pass the remaining appropriations or pass another continuing resolution. The last deal only actually contained three of the 12 required appropriations bills. Democrats have a little leverage here, but not much and they haven't laid out their potential asks or positions.

That's led to this question. Belle, I know not to expect much, but I'm starting to wonder if the Democrats are even going to try to get anything in the negotiations. I've seen nothing saying they're going to even try. What gives?

Well, it's been a long time since we saw a normal appropriations package negotiation, but sometimes silence in the run-up is a game of chicken between the parties. Nobody wants to stake out their position first because what if the other side was going to give up their request for free, but now that they know your side wants it badly, they'll try to extract a concession for it. So sometimes silence is normal. But again, we haven't seen that in a while and that's not what's happening now. But it does help understand what is happening.

What if the other side is arguing amongst themselves and they don't even know what they want yet? They're still arguing over their position. You don't want to telegraph yours yet. That's what's happening.

The Republican party, yes, the majority party, hasn't figured out what their position is. Just last week, the House and Senate Appropriations leads announced they'd agree on topline numbers. If you're not familiar with this process, that's literally step one. The appropriations bills that have to be passed by the end of next month haven't even had their first draft written yet.

Johnson recently told his side in the House that he really wanted to get this through by the deadline. With some Republican factions demanding no spending increases and some demanding more, there's a feeling on the Republican side of the aisle that meeting the deadline is aspirational at best. So, the short version here is that Democrats are not staking out their position yet because they don't want to give something away for free or let Republicans know what they want until Republicans decide their position amongst themselves.

If Democrats demanded a 5% increase, and Republicans had already decided behind closed doors on a 2½% increase, Republicans would walk out and say no spending increases and then later give a concession of 2½%. So, it looks like Republicans negotiated, but they really just got their way. I know there's an expectation that Democrats will drop the ball here. If you've bet on that, don't worry. They have plenty of opportunities, but they haven't done it here.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.