Let's talk about Trump and Putin's nukes.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump and Putin's nukes. We'll go over the news, why this matters, and why the systems were previously banned, and then we'll get into what it means for a myth that continues to linger in the US.

First, the news. Putin has reportedly deployed the Oreshnik system in Belarus. The Oreshnik is an intermediate range ballistic missile system that is nuclear capable. As the name suggests, it's meant to hit targets at an intermediate range, but that's a relative term. All of Europe is in range of this system, but they were in range of the systems in Russia already. That's the core issue--intermediate range missiles are about time. They compress decision windows. They shorten warning times. They make it easier for a crisis to turn into a catastrophe because leaders have fewer minutes to figure out whether something is a signal, a bluff, a conventional strike, or the opening move of something nuclear.

Oreshnik in particular is being described in public reporting as extremely fast and difficult to intercept and Russia has framed it as a strategic tool meant to deter Western support for Ukraine. Belarus sits right on NATO's doorstep, close to Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and not far from other key European locations.

When systems like this move west, the distance that used to buy diplomats time gets eaten up. That has two immediate effects. First, it forces NATO to think more seriously about air and missile defense posture on the eastern flank. Not because defenses are perfect. They aren't. But because allies will feel compelled to reduce vulnerability and reassure frontline states. You're likely to see more attention to layered defenses, dispersal of assets, and readiness measures because deterrence is partly psychological. Allies will have to believe they can absorb a punch without collapsing.

Second, it adds fuel to the escalation ladder problem. Intermediate range systems are tailormade for brinkmanship because they can be used to threaten targets that are politically sensitive but not necessarily strategic nuclear exchange level: air bases, logistic hubs, command nodes. That blurs the line between conventional and nuclear signaling. Especially when the system is openly described as nuclear capable. There is no way to know whether a missile fired from the system is nuclear or conventional until it detonates. That means the West will have to assume it's nuclear. That's why they were previously banned under a Cold War era treaty. Trump let that treaty fail in 2019.

Now, let's get to the myth. There is no clearer sign that Putin thinks Trump is scared, weak, and incapable of leadership than this. The mere possibility of NATO arms being stationed directly along Russia's border at some point in the future was used by Russia as a pretext to invade Ukraine. Russia is actually putting previously banned missile systems on NATO's border, releasing video of them doing it, and admitting they're doing it. They feel comfortable doing this because Putin sees Trump as too weak to respond. Putin convinced Trump and a large portion of Americans and Europeans that he was their friend. Now he's moving a system up that is perfect for a first strike and laughing because the West was too weak and confused to respond. The US hasn't been perceived as this weak since the 1800s. Truly a Golden Age.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.

[popsdenver]

1. Think about the world's nuclear arsenals

that are enough to destroy every living thing on planet earth, 1,000's of times over..............

Think about all the Malignant Narcissists, who are also total Psychopaths, in charge of countries holding these nuclear arsenals..............the U.S., Russia, North Korea, China, Israel

If just ONE missile goes...........They ALL go.................

[Warpy]

2. Those things have a 50% failure rate

While that's a far cry from 200% failure, it seems certain that Belarus will get nuked more than anyone else. Add to that the fact that Putin's priority list has always had maintenance dead last, and we'd see a very high dud rate on the nukes. If he's STUPID enough ever to fire one of those things off, Should that happen, the outcome would be a lot more survivable (but still devastating) for us than it would be for Russia. I think Putin knows that.

He's a cornered rat and you never know what those will do. Calling his bluff is still the safest thing to do. Appeasement isn't going to work.