Let's talk about "must win" Governor's races in 2026.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about must-win governor's races in 2026.

So, it's the midterm year and all eyes are on the US House of Representatives, but there's another set of races that are important, but they're likely to be ignored in political analysis at the national level. Okay. So why is the House important? Because it's supposed to act as a check on executive power. Under a Republican majority, it has been shirking that constitutional duty.

There are more than 30 governor's races occurring this year, too. In our systems, the governor's act as a check on federal power, which in our current situation is a proxy for a check on executive power. Remember, it was the governor's fighting back that pushed Trump to stop deploying troops against Americans. So, we're going to take a look at a number of races that will probably turn out to be consequential.

The five most we'll be looking at are Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Those are states that Trump won but have a Democratic governor. Traditional political math says that means the Republican candidate in those states will have a better chance. Under Trump, who famously scrambles traditional political math, it'll be a referendum on both his policies and the Republican primary process. The more MAGA the Republican nominee, the less of a chance they'll probably have.

Georgia is one to truly watch as well. It's got some unique dynamics. Republican Governor Brian Kemp is facing term limits. The Republican side of the aisle has a relatively crowded primary. And the Democratic primary has Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor and former Lieutenant Governor Jeff Duncan. Duncan was once a Republican and might be able to pull a lot of unexpected support.

Kansas is one that could have some surprises. Right now, the governor is a Democrat, Laura Kelly, but she's term limited. That means the general political logic says that Kelly's Democratic leadership of the traditionally red state was a fluke and they will elect a Republican governor. But again, Trump's economic policies will be on the ballot. The Wichita Eagle just ran an op-ed titled, "Have yourself a tariffed little Christmas." The Kansas City Star recently had one titled," Kansas Missouri farmers went big for Trump. His tariffs are gutting them."

In Wisconsin, the incredibly popular Democratic Governor Tony Evers isn't running again. The Democratic primary is pretty crowded and even features a Democrat socialist candidate.

These races will help shape the national discussion and they'll end up influencing the House races as the final candidates are picked through the primaries. Republicans will look at them as another rubber stamp for Trump, and the Democratic Party will see them as a chance to add an extra layer of defense against Trump's executive overreach.

If they're smart, the Democratic Party will try to focus on affordability in the economy in every one of those races, Nevada, too. And Republicans will probably try to avoid talking about the K-shaped economy and how it's hurting the average American. I'd expect them to try to scare up another boogeyman to unite their base. Nothing wins elections quite like blaming a small group for the failings of your party's policies.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.