Let's talk about how you haven't finished paying for Trump's tariffs.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about how you haven't finished paying for Trump's tariffs.

Well, there now exists enough data to really get into who's paying for Trump's Liberation Day tariff scheme. Spoiler, it's what most expected.

Okay, so the Kiel Institute for the World Economy analyzed about $4 trillion worth of shipments in about 25 million individual transactions between January 2024 and November 2025. For those who are going to ask, the shipments in 2024 were to establish a baseline.

Trump has repeatedly claimed that foreign countries are paying for the tariffs. While it's obvious foreign countries aren't paying for the tariffs, maybe he meant foreign companies, people, exporters, and so on. If that's what he meant, he's right. For about 4 cents out of every dollar of his tariffs. That's right. Americans are paying 96% of the cost of the tariffs. One of the authors behind the study put it bluntly. "There is no such thing as foreigners transferring wealth to the US in the form of tariffs."

There were two key data points that Americans should pay attention to. One is that the price that foreign exporters were charging American importers for products didn't really change. This means that the cost of tariffs is not being absorbed by the exporter. If it isn't being absorbed outside the US, it's being absorbed inside the US. Americans are paying for it. Some of it is currently being absorbed by the importer and the rest is being paid for by well you. The other data point is that while companies didn't adjust prices, they adjusted volume. They shipped less of their product to the US and opened up other markets or pushed more into existing alternate markets.

So, back to that first data point. Americans are paying 96% of the cost of Trump's tariffs, but that isn't all being passed on to the consumer yet. Some is being absorbed by the American importer. That probably won't last, which means inflation probably isn't over.

But let's just say for a moment that the importers do keep absorbing the costs and don't pass the cost along. That means the importers are making less money, which means they pay less or they have less employees and they spend less in the US economy. So, it's still bad for you as a consumer. Even if it doesn't raise prices, it can hurt the job market and reduce economic activity.

When it comes to the second data point, the exporters in other countries reduced how much they were shipping to the US, but that doesn't mean demand dropped. That could produce more upward pressure on prices if more supply doesn't come from somewhere else. Here's the key takeaway. We have not even finished dealing with the negative effects of Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, and he's looking at adding more. Those too will take time to show their effects, and they will snowball.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.