Let's talk about Trump, betting, troops, national security, and BetInt.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about a US soldier allegedly betting on Maduro being ousted.

About 10 days ago, I said this would be a story in the background until it reached a climax. Well, the feds announced they arrested a special operations soldier in North Carolina who was involved in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro for allegedly betting on the operation he was involved in.

Okay, so for quite some time we've talked about how suspicious trades timed with actions from the White House aren't just a matter of ethics, they're a national security issue. We talked about how the apparent use of prediction markets by those with inside information could pose a bigger issue and could be used to predict troop movements and military actions. Foreign intelligence services could monitor identified accounts and use that as a basis to help determine the intent of the US government.

That is obviously no longer a hypothetical. If foreign intelligence services weren't actively working on ways to analyze the bets, they are now.

The indictment says, “rather than safeguard that information, as he was obligated to do, Van Dyke decided to use that classified information to place trades on a prediction market platform for his personal profit.” It goes on to allege, “Van Dyke subsequently tried to conceal his unlawful use of classified US government information by attempting to obscure the source of his unlawful proceeds and to disguise his connection to the accounts linked to the illicit trades.”

The bets in question made more than $400,000. I feel like this shouldn't need to be said, but if you have a clearance, maybe Google the term Army continuous vetting.

Set aside the danger this poses to national security for a second. It's incredibly unlikely that anybody with a military clearance above secret is going to be able to get away with anything like this. Finances are monitored to make sure somebody can't be coerced or paid off. From what's publicly available, the private system at the prediction market actually flagged this first, but the counter intelligence reviews wouldn't have been far behind.

We've had a few questions about whether or not the accused soldier was part of that unit out of Bragg and whether his rank will get him leniency. There is no public information about his specific unit at time of recording. Take from that what you will, but I'm going to guess he wasn't in the 82nd.

And no, his master sergeant rank will likely work against him in some ways because a senior NCO is supposed to set the example.

Trump was asked about the situation and said, "That's like Pete Rose betting on his own team. Pete Rose, they kept him out of the Hall of Fame because he bet on his own team. “Now, if he bet against his team, that would be no good. but he bet on his own team. I'll look into it.”

Based on his comparison to baseball, it seems clear that nobody has explain the risks the bets pose to current, future, or ongoing operations to Trump. If counter intelligence services don't get a handle on prohibiting this soon, we'll end up with a whole new type of intelligence work specialty. Humint, segint, elint, and betint.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.