Let's talk about Iran's proposal to Trump.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Iran's proposal.

After peace talks fell apart yet again, reporting suggests that Iran has sent a proposal to get talks restarted. It's a multi-phase plan that actually gives Trump a way out of the mess he created as long as he's willing to tell the American people a deal will come in 2 weeks, for quite a while longer.

Given recent statements by Trump suggesting he believes Iran is only 3 days away from serious economic strain, it's hard to tell how he'll react to the news. More importantly, the first phase hinges on his ability to convince another world leader to follow his lead.

It's important to note that this is early in the process and the phases themselves might be negotiated a bit, but the rough outline is something along the lines of phase one, a complete end to the war with Iran and Lebanon. This would hinge on Trump's ability to get Netanyahu to stop the moves in Lebanon. That sounds like something Trump might have a hard time doing.

Once that is done, phase two would start, which is the discussion about the management and administration of the Strait of Hormuz. It's really worth noting this doesn't seem like a blanket reopening. It sounds like Iran wants to keep control.

Once that is dealt with, phase three can start. That's the discussion of Iran's nuclear program.

So, there are a couple of things about this that are worth noting. It gives Trump a way out without too much embarrassment. If he can get the strait opened and constantly say that negotiations over the nuclear program are underway, he can claim he's working to get a better deal than Obama got, even if he's nowhere near it.

Another is that if Iran gets to maintain administration of the strait, they might be more willing to seriously consider discussions about the nuclear program. Because as we've discussed, Trump's war gave them the chance to demonstrate to the world that they possess something more powerful than a nuke, control of oil supply.

Trump has backtracked on initial demands and is now only asking Iran to give up enrichment for 10 years. This is a lot like the way he negotiated the surrender of Afghanistan. He puts the date after his term of office so somebody else has to clean up his mess.

That being said, the world will not be happy with an Iran administered strait because it would give them legitimized control of something more powerful than a nuke. There will probably be significant pressure on Trump to avoid giving that to them.

The White House response has been boilerplate. "These are sensitive diplomatic discussions and the US will not negotiate through the press. As the president has said, the United States holds the cards and will only make a deal that puts the American people first, never allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon."

Sure, if Trump had all the cards, we wouldn't be in this mess, and he wouldn't have reduced his demand from forever to 10 years. There's a route out of this mess here. But there's a lot of obstacles, and it doesn't leave the US in a better position than when it started. Because while Trump bluffs about having all the cards, the whole table knows Iran is holding a strait.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.