Trump Is Not Strong, Or Winning
In every possible way I would much rather be us than them
Simon Rosenberg
Feb 22, 2024

Trump is far weaker than 2020, the GOP party itself is in shambles, and they’ve grown far uglier, extreme and dangerous. Right now the Republican is an unprecedented shitshow - I mean, c’mom:

Trump is campaigning from the courthouse this time, not the White House. He is facing 91 felony indictments. He and Rudy owe $700m. He keeps losing in court, badly. He raped E. Jean Carroll in a department store dressing room. He oversaw one of the largest financial frauds in American history. His criminal trial for cooking the books to pay off a porn star starts in a few weeks. He stole America’s secrets, lied to the FBI about it, shared these secrets with others. He tried to overturn the 2020 election, led an armed insurrection against the US government, and has promised to end American democracy if he somehow gets into the Oval Office again. He and his family have corruptly taken more money from foreign governments than any political family in history. He is singularly responsible for ending Roe and stripping the rights and freedoms away from more than half the population.

His campaign and his party are in shambles. He is spending more money than he is taking in (just holy shit). Nikki Haley outraised him in January. 93% of registered Republicans in Iowa choose to not vote for him. 43% of Haley voters in Iowa said they would vote for Biden. He underperformed public polls in NH by 10-15 points. Polling in these early states found 20-30% of the GOP eletorate could flee if Trump is convicted (which has already happened btw). The RNC is broke. It’s leadership has been ousted. His daughter in law may take over the RNC (LOLOL) because she may be the only member of his family legally allowed to serve in a leadership role in a non-profit. Dozens of Republican Party leaders in the battleground states have been indicted for various electoral crimes, including trying to overturn the 2020 election. MAGA-led state parties are crashing across the US. GOP state party chairs in both Arizona and Florida just resigned in epic scandals. The GOP House is arguably the worst in American history, and House Republicans are retiring and abandoning ship in record numbers. Despite his “wealth,” Trump is somehow forcing the Republican Party to pay for his outrageous legal bills, draining the party of resources he and other Rs need against a well funded Biden/DNC operation. The hard side of Republican politics has collapsed, something that deserves far more discussion.

Trump’s performance on the stump is far more erratic, delusional and disturbing than ever before. He is making damaging, impulsive traditional political mistakes like coming out against the ACA which are the kind of mistakes losing candidates make. He wears more make-up than a drag queen, attendance at his rallies is way off, and his wife and daughter are refusing to campaign with him. The thrill is gone, baby.

His agenda is far more radical and dangerous than it was in 2016 or 2020. He wants Putin to win, the West to lose. The border to be in chaos, and migrants to keep flowing into the country. The economy to crash. Women, people of color to lose more freedoms and rights. The planet to warm faster. 10 year olds to carry their rapist's baby to term, and for more women to die on an operating room table. Tens of millions to lose their health insurance. More dead kids in schools. Verified rapists in positions of authority. A restoration of pre-Civil Rights era white supremacy. Big tax cuts for their donors, higher deficits and less for everyone else. Books banned across the US. Seniors to pay more for insulin and prescription drugs. Foreign governments free to pollute our daily discourse and harass our citizens. Teenagers to work night shifts in meat packing plants and not go to school. The minimum wage to stay at $7.25. Mass arrests and mass deportations of immigrants long settled in the US. Insurrectionists to get pardoned. 10% tariffs which would blow up the global economic order and punish American consumers. To end American democracy for all time. Good luck selling all this to the American people who have rejected a milder MAGA in 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023 and early 2024, and already rejected him.