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brooklynite

brooklynite's Journal
brooklynite's Journal
January 31, 2020

Who's Winning the 2020 Presidential Delegate Count?

(a new page that will track delegate allocations for each candidate)

Bloomberg

The Democratic Party will choose their nominee to challenge President Donald Trump during four months of elections that begin with the Iowa caucus on Feb. 3 and conclude with the U.S. Virgin Islands in June. Bloomberg News is keeping track of each candidate’s path to the nomination up to the Democratic Party Convention in July.

A candidate wins the nomination if they can secure a majority of delegates—2,376 or more. That includes a combined total of pledged delegates—those awarded based on election results—and unpledged superdelegates—party leaders who can vote for the candidate of their choosing.
January 30, 2020

Buttigieg calls out Biden and Sanders by name ahead of Iowa caucuses

CNN

Decorah, Iowa (CNN)Pete Buttigieg on Thursday accused Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, by name, of forcing the debate among Democratic presidential contenders to be too focused on the past rather than the future.

Buttigieg's naming of his rivals is a significant shift just days ahead of the Iowa caucuses, something the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, has avoided doing in recent weeks. The move signals that Buttigieg sees the former vice president and the Vermont senator as his main opponents in the key early state.

"I hear Vice President Biden, saying that this is no time to take a risk on someone new," Buttigieg said. "But history has shown us that the biggest risk we could take with a very important election coming up is to look to the same Washington playbook and recycle the same arguments and expect that to work against a president like Donald Trump, who is new in kind." Earlier this month the Biden campaign released an ad in which a narrator tells voters, "This is no time to take a risk."

Buttigieg then went after Sanders.

"Then I hear Senator Sanders calling for a kind of politics that says you got to go all the way here and nothing else counts," he said. "And it's coming at the very moment when we actually have a historic majority, not just aligned around what it is we're against, but agreeing on what it is we're for."
January 30, 2020

Take Two: Can Sanders Broaden His Base?

UVA Center for Politics

— Unlike in 2016, Bernie Sanders has a real chance to win the Democratic presidential nomination.

— However, he likely will have to broaden his base of support to do so.

— Namely, better showings in big urban and suburban areas are important, particularly as the field narrows.


Bernie Sanders begins his second bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in possession of something he never attained in 2016: A competitive chance of winning.

Sanders’ first try four years ago was respectable. Facing a top-heavy favorite in Hillary Rodham Clinton, he won 22 states — 12 caucuses and 10 primaries, among them the battleground states of Michigan and Wisconsin. He drew 43% of the nationwide Democratic primary vote, which represented more than 13 million voters. As a result, he posted the highest primary vote total in the nation’s history for any candidate not named Obama, Clinton, or Trump.

Yet in 2016, Sanders never had a realistic chance of winning the party’s nomination. Two basic stumbling blocks stood in his way: superdelegates and the South. The former, which comprised 15% of the convention delegates, went virtually en masse for Clinton, as she was a part of the Democratic establishment in a way that Sanders never was or could be. And with Clinton’s firm grip on the minority vote, the Vermont senator was never able to penetrate the South. He lost 12 of 13 primaries across the region (all save Oklahoma), polling barely one third of its aggregate primary vote in the process.

Sanders’ problem garnering the votes of African Americans and Hispanics extended to other regions of the country as well, helping Clinton to dominate the vote in many of the nation’s leading urban centers and their suburbs. The result: In the 10 states with 15 or more electoral votes, Sanders could carry the primary in only one, and that, Michigan, was by less than 20,000 votes out of 1.2 million cast.


Lots of hard data in the linked article.
January 30, 2020

Jill Biden Visits The Blazing Saddle, Talks Joe's LGBTQ Plans

Iowa Starting Line

Dr. Jill Biden’s arrival at a Des Moines gay bar on Wednesday surprised some regular customers, but it also may have bumped her husband, former Vice President Joe Biden, higher on some caucus-goers’ lists.

With less than a week until caucus night, the former Second Lady hosted an LGBTQ happy hour at the Blazing Saddle in the East Village, noting her husband’s policies to further push equality and the strength of LGBTQ community members. She arrived in the state Wednesday to campaign for her husband, expected to hit events through Friday across the state.

“Progress has happened because you fought to make it happen. By living your truth every day, you are making it happen. But the fight is not over,” Biden said. “We’re going to pass the equality act, we’re going to restore anti-discrimination policies. We’re going to protect our youth from hate crimes, conversion therapy and bullying.”

Much of Biden’s remarks also focused on President Donald Trump’s Thursday arrival in Des Moines. He’ll hold a rally at Drake University during the evening.
January 30, 2020

D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser to endorse Mike Bloomberg for president

Washington Post

D.C. Mayor Muriel E. Bowser is to endorse Democratic presidential candidate Mike Bloomberg during a joint appearance Thursday afternoon in the District, according to the Bloomberg campaign.

Bloomberg, New York’s former three-term mayor, is to deliver a speech outlining his plan to create affordable housing and ease the homeless crisis that is posing challenges for large cities across the country, including the nation’s capital.

Bowser is scheduled to appear with Bloomberg when he speaks at the Atlas Performing Arts Center on H Street NE, a gentrifying corridor that illustrates the challenges cities face in balancing economic development and the needs of the poor.

The second-term mayor is choosing the billionaire businessman from a crowded field of candidates that includes former vice president Joe Biden, who worked closely with the District during the Obama administration and whom she has praised in the past.
January 30, 2020

Why Bernie Sanders Loves the F-35 Stealth Fighter

National Interest

In an unusual turn, this has pitted anti-F-35 activists in opposition to both of Vermont’s left-leaning senators, independent Bernie Sanders and Democrat Patrick Leahy, who have supported the F-35’s deployment in Burlington. For example, this September 6, activists planned a “Weekend at Bernie's” rally at Leahy and Sander’s Burlington offices opposing the F-35’s imminent arrival.

Supporters of the anti-F-35 campaign “Save our Skies” have included retired Air Force colonel Rosanne Greco who was formerly involved nuclear arms negotiations; Pierre Sprey, an influential weapons analyst in the 1970s and a longtime F-35 critic; and Ben Cohen of Ben & Jerry’s ice cream company who has provided financing.

South Burlingtonians living near the airport were already reportedly unhappy with the noise produced by the now-retired F-16s. In response, the airport actively purchased and razed over 200 adjacent homes to reduce the affected population. Opponents to F-35 basing particularly cite studies showing that children growing up near noisy airports tend to suffer adverse health and educational attainment outcomes.

In 2013, the National Guard also released an Environmental Impact Statement that asserted that the additional noise impact would be minimal. However, locals have questioned the assessment model.

It was eventually revealed that Burlington was the least well-rated of four sites evaluated by the Environmental Impact Statement, and its selection may have been pushed specifically by Senator Leahy. Furthermore, leaked emails revealed the National Guard had developed a new noise model (Karnes 3) over the objections of the Air Force with the intention of favorably tweaking the noise assessment.



Bloomberg

F-35’s List of Flaws Includes a Gun That Can’t Shoot Straight

Add a gun that can’t shoot straight to the problems that dog Lockheed Martin Corp.’s $428 billion F-35 program, including more than 800 software flaws.

The 25mm gun on Air Force models of the Joint Strike Fighter has “unacceptable” accuracy in hitting ground targets and is mounted in housing that’s cracking, the Pentagon’s test office said in its latest assessment of the costliest U.S. weapons system.

The annual assessment by Robert Behler, the Defense Department’s director of operational test and evaluation, doesn’t disclose any major new failings in the plane’s flying capabilities. But it flags a long list of issues that his office said should be resolved -- including 13 described as Category 1 “must-fix” items that affect safety or combat capability -- before the F-35’s upcoming $22 billion Block 4 phase.


The number of software deficiencies totaled 873 as of November, according to the report obtained by Bloomberg News in advance of its release as soon as Friday. That’s down from 917 in September 2018, when the jet entered the intense combat testing required before full production, including 15 Category 1 items. What was to be a year of testing has now been extended another year until at least October.




January 30, 2020

John Heilmann ("The Circus"): Buttigieg events in Iowa better attended...

...and more energy than Biden events. Buttigieg better organized on the ground. Biden voters (older) are more reliable, but a larger turnout may indicate Pete os bringing new people in.

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