brooklynite
brooklynite's JournalGOP Insiders are starting to doubt Ron Desantis would actually take on Trump
Vanity FairFor much of the past year, DeSantis has acted like a presidential candidate-in-waiting, leading many to believe he would take on Trump if the former president, as expected, gets in the race. DeSantis pointedly refused to seek Trump’s endorsement for his reelection. And during a debate against Crist last month, he declined to promise he would serve out his full four-year term as governor. DeSantis is also sitting on a campaign war chest of more than $180 million. In a profile of DeSantis for Vanity Fair’s November issue, I reported that DeSantis privately told donors that if he did run, he would launch a full-frontal assault on Trump’s record and competence.
But according to four prominent Republicans, DeSantis appears to be reconsidering his plans to run. Sources told me DeSantis recently indicated to donors that he would not challenge Trump for the Republican nomination. “He’s led them to believe he will not run if Trump does,” a Republican briefed on the donor conversations told me. Another source told me DeSantis’s calculus is that, at age 44, he can easily wait until the next presidential cycle, so why risk a brutal primary fight against a pugilist like Trump? “He can walk into the presidency in 2028 without pissing off Trump or Florida,” the source said. “What would you rather do? Be the governor of Florida for certain or go run for president?”
Not unreasonable. Trump would likely do anything he could to ruin Desantis' chances if he beat Trump in the 2024 Primary. He can wait out either a second Trump term or a second Biden term and run with no incumbent Democrat.
Discussion with James Carville: things don't look great
Don't see signs of a huge youth vote.
Democrats have not been solid on messaging, especially economic. Candidates should be taking cues from Biden's statements on Medicare/Social Security.
Should have leveraged kansas results on economics (Republicans lied when they said they wouldn't ban abortion; don't trust them when they say they won't eliminate SS/MC. (Kevin McCarthy on forcing a Govt shutdown; Rick Scott on DSCC plan)
Needs to be an assessment a to what messages get through to voters.
10-15% of Democrats make 80% of ,message noise.
Doing better in red states where candidates need to compete (OK-AK). Blue State democrats get lazy and don't focus on issues outside of liberal base voters.
Nevada at risk because of DSA taking over the most successful Party in the country.
Haven't heard much from DNC. Party has to do better. 26% shift in suburban white women. We have to rebrand ourselves to be relevant to most voters. Do liberal activists chase more people away than they bring in? Don't use "woke"; it has an honorable history (to the 20s), but over-educated white people made the word into something negative.
Voice of our party is being generated by over-educated white people. huge mistake to have left-wing call for negotiations with Putin over Ukraine. Issue is a simple one for people to understand.
Abortion issue had some strength in the summer, but lost energy. Needed to leverage Republican position on other issues rather than keep as a stand-alone issue.
David Wasserman (I'm on a live call with him): We won't see a 1994/2010 blowout, but...
...number of seats Republicans have to win still gives them the edge in the House.
(10 vulnerable Republicans to 25 vulnerable Democrats)
Candidate quality is still a big issue. Senate still a toss-up
5-6% of voters are still not turned in to election, but most are independents focused on economics
Dems doing best job they can on economics argument, which is what's keeping them afloat. Biggest risk is open seats where candidates aren't well known.
Thinks Hochul will hold on by 5-8 points.
PA-SEN is still a tossup, but Oz still has a strong chance to win, based on Fetterman statements on fracking and parole.
NV-SEN depends on whether Democratic machine can turn out votes.
Expect to see a high degree in ticket splitting.
Iz should be staying as far away from Mastriano as possible, but will appear at a rally with him this weekend
There are a lot of low quality polls coming in from pro-Republican outlets. However Cook does its own internal research with campaigns, and Democratic internal pools aren't much better.
90% chance we'll know the House outcome on Election night.
Violent crime is a key midterm voting issue, but what does the data say?
Pew Research CenterBlack voters are particularly likely to say violent crime is a very important midterm issue. Black Americans have consistently been more likely than other racial and ethnic groups to express concern about violent crime, and that remains the case this year.
Some 81% of Black registered voters say violent crime is very important to their midterm vote, compared with 65% of Hispanic and 56% of White voters. (There were not enough Asian American voters in the Center’s survey to analyze independently.)
Differences by race are especially pronounced among Democratic registered voters. While 82% of Black Democratic voters say violent crime is very important to their vote this year, only a third of White Democratic voters say the same.
Al Sharpton thinks White elite liberals are ignoring the issue for fear of being seen as racist.
Netanyahu holds lead to win election, as almost all of votes counted
Source: Jerusalem Post
Arab party Balad was originally said to be close to crossing the threshold but by Wednesday afternoon that option seemed to dissipate. Had it happened, Netanyahu's bloc would have potentially dropped to 60 seats, one short of a coalition majority. Likud had sent an urgent letter to the police commissioner on Tuesday night demanding that allegations of voter fraud in the Arab sector be immediately investigated.
According to the exit polls on Tuesday night, Netanyahu's bloc, which includes Likud, Religious Zionist Party (RZP), United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and Shas, crossed the 61-seat threshold and will be able to form the next coalition.
Read more: https://www.jpost.com/israel-elections/article-721222
Tim Ryan takes on the Fox News crowd.
https://twitter.com/SawyerHackett/status/1587591552322371585What do the following have in common?
Quinnipiac University
Monmouth University
Siena College
Emerson College
Marist College
1) They're all respected educational institutions
2) They all have Research Departments and do polling as an educational tool.
3) They all have a rating of "A" or higher by 538.
You may distrust polls philosophically, or feel that they're not reflecting social or technological trends, but lets not reflexively reject every poll as an attempt to depress Democratic turnout or play up to a right wing audience.
Banks prepare to hold $12.7bn Twitter debt on books until early 2023
Source: Financial Times
Barring an unexpected rally in credit markets this year, the group of lenders, led by Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Barclays, have conceded they will be stuck holding the debt on their books for months or even longer and will probably end up incurring huge losses on the financing package.
The banks have in recent weeks held short discussions with several large credit investors as they attempt to gauge the demand for the debt and the discounts they will ultimately need to offer to offload it. The conversations have been informal and some investors said they were given the impression the deal would not come to market quickly.
The seven lenders are wagering it will be easier to appeal to creditors after Musk presents a clear strategy for Twitter, including the size of cost cuts and estimates for the company’s financial performance in 2023 and 2024.
Read more: https://www.ft.com/content/d1879d0c-c52e-4f48-82f0-09458add4aee
Voter turnout / ballot cure opportunities
Whatever/whenever you can do any of this work...we are literally at crunch time...
As always, training is provided, and trainers will stay on throughout the Zoom shifts you sign up for.
Once you are trained in a state's GOTV or Ballot Cure issues, in many states you then can ask for links to make calls whenever you have any free time, so you're not tethered to the Zoom shift schedules. You can call as often as you like, for as long as you like.
As I get more GOTV and Ballot Cure signup links, I will send them out.
As always, if anyone has questions, or wants to discuss any aspect, please reach out.
Bill
GOTV SIGNUP LINKS
GEORGIA (ADDITIONS TO THE GEORGIA GOTV SHIFTS I EMAILED EARLIER)
https://www.mobilize.us/gavotes/event/517442/
NEVADA (OPEN A NOV 1 "MAKE CALLS" TAB AND SEVERAL SIGNUP DATES WILL OPEN)
https://www.mobilize.us/demvictorynv/
PENNSYLVANIA
http://padems.com/phonebank
BALLOT CURE SIGNUP LINKS
GEORGIA
https://www.mobilize.us/gavotes/event/537437/?referring_vol=5543864&share_context=dashboard-event-details&sharer_role=SharerRole.ORGANIZER
MICHIGAN
https://www.mobilize.us/midemsvopro/event/492768/
OHIO
https://tinyurl.com/OHBallotCure
WISCONSIN
https://www.mobilize.us/dpw/event/499805/
Profile Information
Name: Chris BastianGender: Male
Hometown: Brooklyn, NY
Home country: USA
Member since: 2002
Number of posts: 94,535
