Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search


brooklynite's Journal
brooklynite's Journal
June 13, 2024

Electoral College Rating Changes: Half-Dozen Moves Toward Republicans in What Remains a Toss-up Race

UVA Center for Politics

An updated look at the Electoral College

Today we’re making a half-dozen changes to our Electoral College ratings, all of them benefiting the Republicans. These moves don’t significantly change our overall outlook, which is that we don’t really see a clear favorite in the presidential race, but they do better align our ratings with that overall outlook.

Map 1 shows the updated ratings, which now show 251 electoral votes at least leaning toward the Republicans and 241 at least leaning toward the Democrats. Four states are Toss-ups: Arizona and Nevada in the west and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the Industrial North.

Before we specifically describe the changes, let’s lay out a few big picture assumptions and observations that undergird our analysis:

— The 2016 and the 2020 results act as something of a Rosetta Stone for deciphering 2024. That does not mean there won’t be shifts from those elections—of course there will be. But when confronted with polling results that differ wildly from what we saw in both of those elections—like, for instance, polls showing a tied race in our home state of Virginia after Joe Biden won it by 10 points in 2020, while polls in other places do not consistently show such a strong shift against the president—we tend to defer to the actual past results. There doesn’t have to be, and likely won’t be, a perfectly “uniform” swing from 2020’s results to 2024. But we do think some basic patterns will endure—Virginia voting more Democratic than the nation is one of them.

— Relatedly, it’s still too early to be using polls to make dramatic claims about how states will vote. Polls are often described as a “snapshot in time,” and while they tend to be used as a prospective measure (projecting forward to the election), they actually are retrospective instruments, as they measure attitudes that existed whenever the polls were fielded. To be clear, most of the voting public is immovable, but the key voters that will decide the election are movable, and they may shift in and out of voting for one of the major party nominees, a third party option, or skipping the vote altogether. So there’s some volatility here. Our general assumption is that Biden is going to perform at least a little better in November than polls are showing now, much like Donald Trump generally performed better in November of both of his election years than what late spring polling suggested. Biden probably has a little bit more base consolidation to do than Trump—we may actually be seeing some of that in the wake of Trump’s conviction on business record falsification charges in New York a couple of weeks ago. To be clear, that doesn’t make Biden a favorite in our eyes—again, we just don’t see a favorite.

— All that said, we also recognize the clear big-picture trends. Trump has been polling better than he typically polled in both 2016 and 2020, and that has been the case for many months. Biden’s approval rating is in a dangerous zone—the high 30s—and he has been in that weak place consistently since November, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. Biden is not going to be at net-positive approval by Election Day—fortunately for him, he does not need to be, but one would probably expect to see some level of improvement if he is going to win reelection. The danger for Biden is that voters may just be done with him: There is some nostalgia in polls for the pre-2020, pre-Covid, and pre-inflation period that coincided with Trump’s presidency. That doesn’t necessarily mean the public is clamoring for Trump, who remains unpopular; it’s just that they may prefer him to Biden, or may just be thinking more about what they don’t like about Biden (the incumbent) than Trump (the challenger). One thing that Biden has going for him is that Trump does not seem to have trimmed the sails on his own rhetoric at all—Trump continues to laud the Jan. 6, 2021 rioters who tried to disrupt the 2020 electoral vote count as persecuted patriots, for instance, a position we just can’t imagine helps him with the middle of the electorate trying to decide between two flawed major party candidates.

No "corporate media". Not "rigged polls". Just hard political analysis.

Its going to be close race, just like the Biden campaign has said for months. MI, PA and WI are going to be the key.

June 12, 2024

Another COVID vaccine? Yes, and here's why

Seattle Times

This fall, prepare for the latest round of COVID vaccine Whac-a-Mole. Like the old arcade game, no matter how many shots we get, the enemy always pops back up.

But here’s why the new shot, recommended by FDA advisers last week, makes sense: It targets a new version of the virus, the FDA panel said. It bolsters your body’s ever-growing defense system. And it’s a lot better than getting very sick or hospitalized.

Last year’s shot isn’t holding up. Protection against both infection and severe illness is waning.

“Effectiveness has decreased, as the time since vaccination has increased — and as new SARS-CoV-2 variants emerge,” said biostatistician Danyu Lin of the University of North Carolina School of Global Public Health, who presented worrisome new data to the FDA advisory panel.
June 12, 2024

Fed holds interest rates steady, as officials eye one cut this year

Source: Washington Post

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady on Wednesday, as officials hold out for more confidence that their fight against inflation is still on track.

The move, which was widely expected, came on the heels of fresh data showing inflation cooled in May. After a bumpy start to the year, the report brought a welcome dose of encouragement, beating analysts’ expectations and lifting financial markets. And even though Fed officials still don’t know exactly when they’ll cut interest rates for the first time in years, they seem to be getting closer.
Get a curated selection of 10 of our best stories in your inbox every weekend.

A fresh set of economic projections showed the median number of Fed officials expect just one cut by the end of 2024. But there’s clearly debate within the central bank’s 19-member policymaking body: Eight officials penciled in two cuts, and four expect no cuts at all. In a sharp pivot from just a few months ago, no one expected three cuts.

Policymakers were also slightly more pessimistic than they had been on inflation and now expect their preferred inflation gauge to end the year at 2.6 percent, up from 2.4 percent. They held forecasts for overall growth (2.1 percent) and the unemployment rate (4 percent) steady.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/06/12/cpi-fed-inflation-interest-rates/
June 12, 2024

Howard Fineman, political correspondent with analytical eye, dies at 75

Source: Washington Post

Howard Fineman, a Newsweek political correspondent and television commentator for decades who brought behind-the-scenes insight to news cycles often dominated by horse-race campaign coverage, died June 11. He was 75.

He had pancreatic cancer, said his wife, Amy Nathan, who announced the death on social media.

Mr. Fineman spent 30 years at Newsweek beginning in 1980, serving as chief political correspondent and deputy Washington bureau chief during the era when the magazine, then owned by The Washington Post, was one of the most widely read newsweeklies in the United States.

He was also an analyst for NBC and MSNBC for years and became familiar to television viewers through his appearances on shows including “Hardball With Chris Matthews,” PBS’s “Washington Week in Review” and CNN’s “Capital Gang Sunday.”

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/obituaries/2024/06/12/howard-fineman-newsweek-dead/
June 12, 2024

Hunter Biden conviction shatters Trump's persecution narrative


The survival of the rule of law in America and untainted justice may depend on the choice voters make in November.

The country’s divergent possible paths under President Joe Biden or presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump were highlighted in the way both men, their families and their political operations reacted to the twin trials and verdicts.

Biden made no effort to interfere in the prosecution of his son Hunter with either his executive authority or with the media megaphone of his office. He allowed his own Justice Department to secure a guilty verdict Tuesday that could result in jail time for the recovering addict and hurt his own 2024 campaign. “I will accept the outcome of this case and will continue to respect the judicial process as Hunter considers an appeal,” the president said after the jury found his son guilty of lying on a federal background check form and possessing a gun while addicted to, or using, illegal drugs. He has already said he won’t pardon his son. In his first reaction to the verdict, Hunter Biden didn’t attack the judge or prosecutors, simply saying he was grateful for the love and support of his family and blessed to be clean again.

The Bidens’ comportment contrasted with Trump’s reaction to his own trial and conviction nearly two weeks ago in his hush money case. The ex-president lashed out at witnesses, prosecutors, jurors and the judge. He claimed that “this was done by (the) Biden administration in order to wound or hurt a political opponent.” He blasted “a rigged decision,” despite the fact the Justice Department was not involved in the case brought by the Manhattan district attorney. Since then, Trump has been warning he’d use presidential powers to punish his political opponents and bend the legal system to his will.

Lead story. So much for "the media is going to play up the conviction to help Trump" conspiracy theories.
June 11, 2024

Apple stock surges to record high after AI announcements

Source: Yahoo Finance

Apple's (AAPL) stock surged 7% on Tuesday to reach a record-high close for the first time in 2024 as investors digested the announcement of its AI platform, Apple Intelligence.

After the stock fell on Monday during and after the company's WWDC conference, the stock moved higher, notching its best single-day performance since November 2022, as some Wall Street analysts cheered the company's announcements.

"If you look at the signal away from the noise, you realize that this is unprecedented capability that Apple is going to introduce and it's going to integrate AI into everyday life," D.A. Davidson managing director Gil Luria told Yahoo Finance (video above).

Following Monday's event, Luria upgraded Apple to Buy from Neutral and raised his price target to $230 from $200.

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-stock-surges-to-record-high-after-ai-announcements-150325922.html

Every year I give away shares to charity to avoid Capital Gains and every year the net value goes back up.....
June 11, 2024

New Jersey attorney general reviewing Trump liquor licenses in wake of New York conviction

Source: NBC News

New Jersey attorney general's office is investigating the eligibility of the liquor licenses of three Trump-owned golf courses in the state following former President Donald Trump's conviction on felony charges in New York, officials confirmed Tuesday.

The three properties under review by New Jersey Attorney General Matthew Platkin and the Division of Alcoholic Beverage Control, which is a part of the AG's office, include Bedminster, Pine Hill and Colts Neck.

"ABC is reviewing the impact of President Trump’s conviction on the above referenced licenses, and declines further comment at this time," a spokesperson for the agency said.

New Jersey law states that, “No license of any class shall be issued to any person under the age of 18 years or to any person who has been convicted of a crime involving moral turpitude.”

Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/new-jersey-attorney-general-reviewing-trump-golf-liquor-licenses-rcna156550

June 11, 2024

National Call on Reproductive Freedom with Vice President Harris and Special Guests

Thursday, June 13
8 – 8:45pm EDT

Virtual event
Join from anywhere

Join Vice President Harris in conversation with actress, producer, and comedian Lisa Ann Walter for a National Call on Reproductive Freedom on Thursday, June 13 at 8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM PT. We’ll also be joined by Biden-Harris Campaign Manager Julie Chávez Rodríguez, Amanda and Josh Zurawksi – who have experienced the chaos and cruelty unleashed by Trump – and the Biden-Harris team.

On this national call ahead of the anniversary of the overturning of Roe v. Wade, you’ll hear from Vice President Harris and the Biden-Harris team on ways YOU can take action in the fight for reproductive freedom. Get started today by signing up to volunteer at JoeBiden.com/Freedom.

Nearly two years ago on June 24, Donald Trump’s Supreme Court majority overturned Roe v. Wade, ripping away reproductive freedom from millions across the country. Yet Trump continues to brag about “killing” Roe and calls state abortion bans “a beautiful thing.” If he returns to the White House, he would work to ban abortion nationwide in all 50 states. The stakes of this election could not be higher.

Register: https://events.democrats.org/event/632641/

Profile Information

Name: Chris Bastian
Gender: Male
Hometown: Brooklyn, NY
Home country: USA
Member since: 2002
Number of posts: 95,559
Latest Discussions»brooklynite's Journal