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brooklynite's Journal
brooklynite's Journal
January 31, 2020

"Democracy in Action"


I guess the hoods are there because of the temperature?
January 31, 2020

How Iowa Could Decide Joe Biden's Fund-Raising Future

New York Times

DES MOINES — Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s campaign has quietly rolled back hundreds of thousands of dollars of television ad reservations in New Hampshire and South Carolina in recent weeks and redirected the funds to buy more ads in Iowa instead.

Mr. Biden’s campaign and a super PAC supporting him are on pace to churn through nearly $9 million on television ads in Iowa ahead of the caucuses on Monday, while spending virtually nothing so far in the other three states that vote in February. Mr. Biden has also planted himself in the state this week, seizing on the Senate impeachment trial and President Trump’s rally in Des Moines on Thursday night to try to convince voters that Republicans are scared to run against him.

The movement of money and energy into Iowa is a sign of not only the opportunity that Mr. Biden’s campaign now sees here — he sits in second or first place in most polls — but also the acute risk for him, according to interviews with Democratic strategists, Biden fund-raisers and allies.

In Iowa, Mr. Biden is not just chasing votes and delegates. He’s chasing cash.

High reward; high risk...
January 31, 2020

Even when raucous, keep the caucus

The Hill

Bob Lehrman, the chief speechwriter for former vice president Al Gore, teaches speechwriting at American University in Washington. He has authored four novels and thousands of speeches, and given speechwriting workshops around the world. He wrote “The Political Speechwriter’s Companion,” recently released in a second edition, this time with collaborator and co-teacher, Eric Schnure. Follow him on Twitter @RobertLehrman1.

It took years before I became perceptive enough to see something more important, something I hope others watch Monday night.

They’ll see a tradition that others mock. New Hampshirites say, “Iowa picks corn. We pick presidents,” pointing out that finishing first in Iowa doesn’t mean a clear road to the White House. It doesn’t; in the past six elections, Iowa Democrats have picked presidents just 50 percent of the time.

But Iowans caucus to pick nominees. In those six elections, Iowa Democrats picked their party’s nominee each time. A win Monday night is a big deal. Even fourth place keeps a Democratic candidate alive.

Critics are right about other problems. They argue that the caucuses are not “inclusive,” ignore independents, sacrifice substance for organizing, and turn out far too few voters.

All true. But except for turnout, an Iowa primary would be flawed in the same way. Primaries turn out more people — 29 percent of eligible voters nationally to Iowa’s 16 percent in 2016. But turnout, pathetically low for both caucuses and primaries, reflect the abysmal way the United States conducts elections more than flaws in the caucus system. There are many ways to fix that — and other countries have. Still, in one OECD 35-country study of turnout, the U.S finished 31st. Our system cries out for reform.

Even if reform comes, though, Iowa should keep the caucus — especially in this era when so many Republicans and Democrats hate each other.
January 31, 2020

I'm confident that Biden, Bloomberg, Buttegieg and Warren will work out a deal to have a nominee...

...before we get to the Convention, if there isn't a clear winner. I am not confident that Sanders will do likewise.

January 31, 2020

Bloomberg and Biden barrel toward Super Tuesday collision


Mike Bloomberg's presidential campaign is predicated on Joe Biden's collapse.

But Biden has steadied his wobbly bid heading into the Iowa caucuses, sending the two moderates toward a likely Super Tuesday collision.

The emerging battle has those in both camps looking over their shoulders — with Biden seeking to claim the center mantle by gaining unstoppable momentum from the early states and Bloomberg's sprawling operation prepared to pick up the pieces should he falter or seem too weak to win.

Bloomberg’s aides continue to express concerns that Biden and the rest of the Democrats competing in the early states would lose to Trump. They view it as increasingly likely that there will be muddle coming out of South Carolina. And they see Bloomberg’s behemoth organization, growing stable of Super Tuesday endorsements and ability to stretch the map with limitless cash as giving him the edge.
January 31, 2020

Did Warren Get Her Ad Campaign Wrong in Iowa?


DES MOINES—It was late summer, and Elizabeth Warren was sitting pretty. The closely watched Iowa Poll, conducted by Ann Selzer for the Des Moines Register, showed Warren at the top of the Democratic presidential field. She was flush with cash. The organizational juggernaut her campaign had built was widely lauded. Insiders here were calling her the prohibitive frontrunner. And she had yet to air one TV ad in Iowa.

This wasn’t an oversight. It was a strategy. From mid-August until late October, when her rivals were flooding the airwaves, Warren would remain dark on TV for 12 weeks. Her first ad on broadcast TV ran on Oct. 26, long after she had risen to the top of the field.

Beginning in mid-August, Pete Buttigieg pretty much took the opposite approach. The mayor of South Bend, Indiana, spent $2 million on TV and radio ads during the same 12-week period. He had run five different spots by the time Warren appeared on television for the first time. When November’s Iowa Poll was released, at the end of that 12-week run, the small-town mayor with the funny name was in first place—and the Des Moines Register heralded him as “a clear frontrunner.”

Since that moment, the race’s dynamics have shifted again and again, and heading into the last weekend before the Iowa caucuses, most observers consider it a four- or even five-way race that’s too close to call. Once Iowa Democrats make their choice on Monday night, pundits are sure to use the results to try to settle any number of intra-campaign disputes, including whether Amy Klobuchar’s Iowa-focused strategy paid off, and whether Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders lived up to their sky-high name recognition during what must be each man’s final shot at the presidency. But among campaign staffers and media strategists, the caucuses will also serve as a referendum for a crucial question in the dark arts of campaign messaging: What’s the most effective way to reach voters in 2020? Should campaigns go heavy on digital spending, or do it the old-fashioned way, on TV?
January 31, 2020

John Delaney drops out of 2020 presidential race

Source: Axios

Former Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.) announced Friday that he was dropping out of the 2020 presidential race.

The big picture: Delaney was the first Democrat to announce his candidacy in the 2020 election, yet failed to establish himself once the field grew. In July, Axios reported that Delaney's staff had asked him to drop out, suggesting he wasn't spending enough money to run a competitive race and had flopped at the first debate.
- At the time, Delaney denied the accusations, stating he had "no plans to drop out of the race."
- He failed to qualify for later debates — benchmarks largely seen as a make-or-break moments for campaigns.
- Questioned by Medium in December as to why he was still in the race, Delaney said his plan was "to do well in Iowa, and send a message that a candidate that actually focuses on rural Iowa, and focuses on campaigning in people’s living rooms and in coffee shops, still matters."

The state of play: The campaign said in the announcement that Delaney had decided to drop out after concluding that he would not reach the 15% viability threshold across much of Iowa — but still had enough support to hurt other moderate candidates.

Read more: https://www.axios.com/john-delaney-drop-out-2020-presidential-election-e6bce847-06ba-4237-a91a-4391a2cdc9c2.html

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Name: Chris Bastian
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