stevebreeze
stevebreeze's JournalSo tell me if I am wrong about my predictions regarding Scalia's replacement.
President Obama has already said he will put forth a nomination. That's a given here are some assumptions.
The nominee will be a moderate.
If you, and most of you will have read anything about the President in Springfield last week, he was saying basically we should all get along. If for no other reason Pres Obama wants to appear reasonable. Even a moderate would be a move left from Scalia. It has been decades since a USSC nominee has been to the left of his or her predecessor. I don't know if it will be Sri Srinivasan, who's name has been mentioned, but you can be sure it will be someone with record or reason he should be targeted as "too Liberal" whatever that means.
The GOP will block any nominee President Obama picks.
No matter how qualified no matter if they just voted for them in another position. You heard at the GOP debate, and you have heard Mitch McConnell. They didn't have time to think about it, and they didn't need to, they will oppose anyone. It will make them look petty and small and but some, maybe most of the GOP senators up for reelection in a bind. With the exception of tax cuts most of the desired changes the GOP has made federally, have been through the USSC rulings. They can not afford to have a more moderate court so they will stick to obstructionism. It's been years since obstructionism has hurt them so that is what they will do.
The public will hate the partisan BS and take the GOP to task for it.
It will drive up Democratic participation rates, and the Democratic candidate will win. They will have obvious coattails in the Senate, probably not enough to turn the house, but it will be a big win for us in November.
So am I wrong in this analysis? If so where?
Goldman Saks did not give Hillary money to change her mind. This is why---
They, and most other donors give money to candidates who agree with their positions. Or sometime to re-enforce their bond. This make the candidates of the wealthy class much more likly to be elected.
Yes NH is next-door to VT, But if Bernie wins big it will be a disastrous indication for Hillary.
The normal reason politicians of neighboring states might have an advantage in an early primary is that that candidate has more name recognition and is more well known. That is certainly true of Bernie in NH. NH voters also are quite familiar with who Hillary is, just like anywhere else in the country. So being from a neighboring state is actually only a level field for Bernie, not any kind of advantage.
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