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Admiral Loinpresser

Admiral Loinpresser's Journal
Admiral Loinpresser's Journal
April 21, 2016

I'm boycotting Corporate Media until Bernie wins the nomination.

I haven't listened to Corporate Media for over 24 hours and it has done wonders for my mental health. NPR does some great segments on the environment, Palestine, etc. But their political "reporting" is extremely biased and ludicrous, so I only listen to music in the car now.

I believe Bernie will be the nominee for several reasons. We have better supplies of money, volunteers and truth. Of course we must do well in the Mid-Atlantic states in order to be able to close the deal in California, but Bernie will continue to win a majority of states, imo. He is simply a great campaigner and Hillary is a notoriously bad campaigner. She always fades, Bernie always surges at the end of his campaigns.

The one wild card here is Corporate Media. Their lies and hysteria will only get worse from here. Can we overcome all these institutional disadvantages? The only reason we have come this far is because we have consistently overcome the Establishment hurdles thrown legally and illegally in our path. Tell everybody to turn off CM and let's keep fighting back until we win.

Phonebank, canvass, donate. The path to victory isn't easy, but it is simple.

April 21, 2016

Why Bernie is our best, and perhaps only, chance.


Bernie is in this race to the convention. This is clear. Win, lose or draw, Bernie and his supporters will be a major force on the convention floor. His inclusivity, his progressive (i.e. mainstream) values, his outstanding integrity and most importantly his unprecedented, record breaking volunteer support (to this point in the cycle) have taken him from a national unknown to the status of possible nominee and a symbol of historic change as more and more Americans reject Reaganism and neoliberalism. But platform power is simply not enough. We need dramatic national and global action. Despite Corporate Media propaganda to the contrary, Bernie can and should be the Democratic nominee.

In response to Reagan’s landslide in 1984, the Democratic Party embraced and has clung to neoliberalism even as popular discontent has increased and respect for American institutions has declined in the Age of Reagan. Now is the chance for the Party for reject neoliberalism (represented by the Hillary candidacy) and accept the progressive values upon which the Party was re-defined by FDR, thus ending the Age of Reagan. Inclusiveness, or at least lip service for it, is how neoliberal candidates sometimes cover their left flank. For example, it is no longer controversial for a neoliberal candidate to support gay marriage. But the unequivocal, consistent advocacy for inclusiveness (and an expanding definition thereof) has been a hallmark of progressive Democrats since LBJ. Having said that, the need for economic and social justice are clearly progressive values, but for neoliberals, not so much, imo.

So now the choice is clear, will the party look to Millenials of all strata as the future, rejecting its recent dark past of neoliberalism and returning to the principles of progressivism, or doom itself to irrelevance? The dilemma poses a significant risk in 2016. Hillary is clearly less likely to win the GE than Bernie, based on consistent polling trends. I believe she can beat Trump, but I have serious doubts whether she can beat Cruz, Kasich or Ryan, based on polling data.

Before Bernie declared I had assumed for several years that at least world civilization, and possibly the human species, are doomed. This belief was grounded in how scientists are interpreting the ever worsening data on climate change, sixth extinction, etc. Bernie gave me hope because I believe our collective chance of survival would be enhanced by American leadership on the ecology and reversing wealth transfer to economic elites. Our choice as a party has global implications which are hard to overstate. The time for incrementalism is long past. Our best chance for the Party and the planet is a fight for justice and for Bernie.
April 19, 2016

Foil hat time.

I have noticed a pro-Hillary story trending on FB at #1 for a long time today. This is uncharacteristic. Could this be our friends from the Phillipines or India clicking for $? Anyway, I wish we could get a pro-Bernie story trending. Maybe it's just a coincidence that it happens on the morning of the NY primary.

April 19, 2016

In case you don't read GDP posts,

this is a post with worthwhile arguments (I hope!):

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511777922

N.B. If this post is against Group rules, I will happily remove it.

April 19, 2016

“Twenty seven bucks or get my ass kicked.” Why we must nominate Bernie.

The indicated quotation in the OP is not an actual quote. It is a paraphrase of Joe Pesci’s character in My Cousin Vinnie, responding to a redneck ultimatum. Vinnie quipped “two hundred bucks or get my ass kicked.”

What my paraphrase means is that we have the political ultimatum of contributing to Bernie’s campaign or losing the White House. Bernie consistently and significantly outperforms Hillary in polls against all GOP contenders. Of course there is no certainty that Hillary would lose a general election, but current polling trends offer a disturbing picture in that regard.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

Hillary is not only heavily underwater on her current favorability ratings but she actually loses to prospective GOP nominee John Kasich. Although she is slightly ahead of Cruz, many of those results are on the order of margin of error. If Trump is the nominee, any Democrat will win according to current polling, but Bernie is more likely to achieve a landslide giving him control of the House and Senate. Bottom line: Polls show Bernie consistently outperforming Hillary against GOP contenders.

Hillary also has a troublesome tendency to fade in national campaigns, as she did in 2008 and has done this cycle. Here is a HuffPo graph illustrating her tendency to fade in national polls:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

This graph shows her falling from a 55 point lead in early 2015 to the current three point lead. Simple examination of the graph shows Hillary has a real problem in national polls over time. A consistent pattern.

In any scenario, Bernie is more likely to have coattails and achieve a landslide than Hillary. Most of Hillary’s popularly perceived baggage is unwarranted and generated by an irresponsible press corps and Republican smears. Nonetheless, the baggage is real, politically ingrained and a Hillary nomination will help unify and energize a fractured GOP.

Bernie simply has more enthusiasm in his campaign, will have more volunteer energy and raise more clean money than any candidate in this cycle. His high net favorables and well earned reputation for integrity in his home state will add to his advantage. That is why he hasn’t lost an election in more than a quarter century! A landslide is achievable, yielding control of the House and Senate for his program. And he clearly knows how to play hardball to get things done. Just ask John McCain.

This is a chance for Democrats to finally roll back the Reagan Revolution and shift the Overton Window.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overton_window

So instead of debating how much to CUT Social Security, etc., we can change the debate to how much we should EXPAND Social Security. How much we should raise the minimum wage, how much we should cut wasteful military spending etc. A political revolution which discredits the tenets of Reaganism and neoliberalism is exactly what this country needs.

Moving the Overton window means that we start out the negotiations with universal health care, rather than taking even a public option off the table before negotiating. It means overturning Citizen’s United in Bernie’s first term. As Bernie stated at the last debate, if elected Bernie will ask President Obama to withdraw his nominee so that Bernie can nominate a public supporter of overturning CU. He’ll probably have to play hardball to get her or him confirmed, but see the John McCain comment above. For example a Democratic Senate could suspend the filibuster rule; then Citizen’s United will be overturned by a 5-4 vote.

Citizen’s United solved, on to a green bill to create 13 million good jobs transitioning from fossil fuel and rebuild our crumbling infrastructure, universal healthcare, relieving student debt, supporting equal pay, pathway to citizenship, kick Goldman Sachs out of the federal government, establish a sane foreign policy which says no to perpetual war and expanding SS. These things are doable with a Bernie victory.

If you think the future is bright for the dying Democratic Party, read this:

http://www.vox.com/polyarchy/2015/11/4/9665842/republican-inequality-future-loop

We need an election which helps our Party, our country and our world. All are in desperate straits. A Sanders presidency addresses all three.

In the three offices Bernie has held (mayor of Burlington, Congressman for Vermont, Senator for Vermont) Bernie has a consistent record for 35 years of becoming more popular while in office, even among Republicans. This is because he is honest, ethical and governs well. Millennials could easily become lifetime Democrats, the country will no longer be a backward nation (except for being first in child poverty and jails), we will have a robust safety net, like the rest of the industrialized world and Bernie will continue to expand his high international favorables as he advocates for equality for the Palestinians, decreases the use of war as the first choice in foreign policy and diminishes the rationale for Islamic terrorism, rather than fueling it as we have been doing for decades. So nominating Bernie means a real chance for a revitalized Democratic Party, a livable America and a world with increased chances for survival.

So, twenty seven dollars or get our donkey kicked, the choice is ours.

April 16, 2016

The hypocrisy of the party conventions in 2016.

Let's start with the GOP. Their convention will be held in mid July in Cleveland at the Quicken Loans Arena. They are literally meeting in a building named after a predatory lender:

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/32929-did-quicken-loans-ceo-force-yahoo-to-delete-content

The Democrats optics are arguably worse. They meet in late July in Philadelphia at the Wells Fargo Center. They are meeting in a building named after one of five banks determined to be too big to fail.

http://www.democracynow.org/2016/4/14/headlines/regulators_warn_5_major_us_banks_are_too_big_to_fail

The tepid use of Dodd Frank in not acting to break up the big banks and other aspects of financial regulation which enable Quicken loans to abuse lenders is a shame on both parties. Bernie offers a real alternative on this aspect of our rigged economy.

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