Tom Rinaldo
Tom Rinaldo's JournalWe all have some hard choices to make
I am currently identified here as a Sanders supporter, and I am. But this year I am far less adamant in my support of any one candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination than I have been in about 30years.
If Democratic voters in America showed a resolve to rally with enthusiasm behind Vice President Biden I too would have fallen in line. If People of Color were showing steadily increasing enthusiasm for Pete Buttigieg as they have gotten time to familiarize themselves with his candidacy, I could put aside my qualms about running someone as young as he with so little experience under his belt, and instead embrace his youth. If Elizabeth Warren had continued her upward trajectory in the polls that had been the case until last fall, I would have remained firmly behind her. If Amy Klobuchar had really surged rather than just ticking up in the polls, and come in a strong second in Iowa as the leading "moderate" candidate (which it doesn't look like she has from the scraps of evidence now available to us) I could see a path forward for her that might have me joining Amy on it if she started to catch fire. If Yang or Steyer did more than just exceed expectations, but showed signs that they could actually win an early contest, I could weigh supporting one of them more seriously.
In my view at least, none of the above have happened. Many here worry that Bernie Sanders is divisive within our broader Democratic coalition. Mike Bloomberg would be that on steroids. He might eventually win support from People of Color, but never significant enthusiasm, and the generational divides that play out in relative support for Biden and Sanders according to age, would further widen and even harden further.
Right now three candidates have demonstrated that they have the resources needed to continue a 50 state slog for the nomination; Bernie, Pete, and Mayor Bloomberg. If Biden really came in 4th or 5th in Iowa (and the outcome will be known well before NH votes), and if he trails at least three candidates by a significant margin, his fund raising ability will take a real hit, and it is already showing weakness. He is in a negative spiral and for someone with 100% voter recognition his lack of strength relative to other moderate candidates, let alone progressives, is ominous. Iowa is a state custom made for Pete Buttigieg, he is their neighbor, but if he gets blown out in South Carolina and other southern primaries does he really have a path to the nomination?
Elizabeth Warren may have done well enough in Iowa to remain faintly viable. But she has much less money than Bernie, and he almost certainly did better in Iowa than she did. She is clearly trailing behind in NH also, a state that knows her well from close proximity, and Sanders now shows greater support among African Americans than does Warren. Realistically, what is her chance of turning things around now? Women voters in Iowa did not rally to the women candidates, so she seems not even have that going for her. Warren could still emerge as a compromise candidate between the Sanders and moderate camps, but only if so called moderates start rallying to her now, both at the grassroots and established Democratic Party levels. That would mean, among other things, moderates backing away from Biden (and Klobuchar) now, and rallying to Warren while Elizabeth is still in play. There really isn't much time. Fundraising will otherwise start to dry up for Warren soon.
"The Prevent Defense" is often not "the safe bet" that people make it out to be
And there is real risk present when a political party enshrines caution and throws boldness to the winds.
The voting will soon begin. I pledge to keep it positive.
I don't care if there is reporting from someone somewhere in the country about who says or does something unkind, or unfair. Not any more. There is too much at stake now to feed into a negative spiral. Maybe I will try to rebut something I read about that seems to me inaccurate, but I will pass on the aggrieved emotions .
It is obvious to me how bitterness festers and amplifies upon itself. Way way back, a long time ago, I learned about legendary feuds, stuff like the Hatfields and the McCoys. It didn't make sense to me then how feuds like that spiral out of control, with each new round of hatred justified by the one before it, but I get it now. There will ALWAYS be something to be outraged by; and outrage begets outrage, and lashing out begets lashing out.
I am going to fall in strongly behind whichever Democratic candidate the voters fall in strongly behind. Period. End of story. It may take a few weeks or a few months for that to sort itself out, but while I wait for that resolution I am making one myself. I will not feed the trolls. I will not amplify the bots. I know that some grievances are legitimate. Frankly, I don't give a damn. Further pursuing them now is not worth the cost to the collective resistance to Trump when we must be united soon heading toward November.
Very few voters enter the primaries consumed by disgust with this or that negative portrayal of this or that candidate by that or this supporter of this or that candidate. They vote for who they want to have lead us into Novembers election. That is what I will listen to and respond to now.
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Member since: Mon Oct 20, 2003, 06:39 PMNumber of posts: 22,912
