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Buzz Clik

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Member since: Mon Dec 22, 2003, 10:13 AM
Number of posts: 38,437

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The Sanders crowd is highly emotionally invested in this Vatican story.

Sanders's lie is the second of two huge fibs in less than a week.

That's gotta sting.

About these polls: I think CBS/YouGov has it figured out.

Not everyone likes polls, but a well designed poll can be highly informative. Michigan last week on the Dem side did not have good polling numbers, for a bunch of reasons. After standing back, digging in, and discussing this, it was clear that Michigan was NOT an anomaly but a warning about poorly constructed polls.

With about 1/3 of the states' primaries in our rear view mirror and lots of polling data, the pollsters are starting to figure it out. Specifically, CBS/YouGov seems to be nailing it: they have Sanders leading Clinton by 2% in Illinois, a state that fits the Michigan model: an open primary with similar demographics.

I'm going by the assumption that CBS/YouGov has good numbers. So, let's take a look at their poll numbers:
  • Illinois: Clinton 46%, Sanders 48%
  • Florida: Clinton 62%, Sanders 34%
  • Ohio: Clinton 52%, Sanders 43%
    (I cannot find any other YouGov polls for this Tuesday)

    Resulting delegate split: Clinton 279, Sanders 234
    (I'm giving Sanders ALL the undecideds, so this is best case scenario for Sanders with these poll numbers)

    ===========

    Giving Missouri to Sanders by 10% and NC to Clinton by 10%, those delegates get split Clinton 91, Sanders 88

    My projected total for Tuesday only: Clinton 370; Sanders 321

    Running total (pledged only): Clinton 1,145; Sanders 871





  • Photoshopping Trumps mouth onto his eyes:

    SNL Opening: Hillary gets burned, Trump revealed, Cruz ridiculed, and Sanders ignored.



    Delegate estimate from Saturday: Sanders 45, Clinton 51. n/t

    The anatomy of voting, and voting with one's anatomy.

    I saw a thread in which Susan Sarandon is quoted as saying she doesn't "vote with my vagina." Is that even possible? I was trying to imagine such a thing, and drew a blank -- punch cards, butterfly ballot, voting machine, electronic voting. Nothing.

    You don't have to explain how, but is it possible to vote with one's vagina?

    http://www.democraticunderground.com/128094059

    Earthquakes and Oklahoma: Wastewater Injection

    The notion exists that "fracking" for natural gas or enhanced oil extraction directly caused the earthquakes observed in Oklahoma. There is some evidence for this, but by far the most likely cause is deep wastewater injection.

    Sharp increase in central Oklahoma seismicity since 2008 induced by massive wastewater injection

    K. M. Keranen, M. Weingarten, G. A. Abers, B. A. Bekins, S. Ge

    Unconventional oil and gas production provides a rapidly growing energy source; however, high-production states in the United States, such as Oklahoma, face sharply rising numbers of earthquakes. Subsurface pressure data required to unequivocally link earthquakes to wastewater injection are rarely accessible. Here we use seismicity and hydrogeological models to show that fluid migration from high-rate disposal wells in Oklahoma is potentially responsible for the largest swarm. Earthquake hypocenters occur within disposal formations and upper basement, between 2- and 5-kilometer depth. The modeled fluid pressure perturbation propagates throughout the same depth range and tracks earthquakes to distances of 35 kilometers, with a triggering threshold of ~0.07 megapascals. Although thousands of disposal wells operate aseismically, four of the highest-rate wells are capable of inducing 20% of 2008 to 2013 central U.S. seismicity.

    http://www.sciencemag.org/content/345/6195/448.short


    Some evidence and some publications have pointed to the simple act of fracking causing the problem, but the big culprit is wastewater injection. A similar cluster of earthquakes was seen in Denver in the late 1960s. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/induced/pdf/Healy-et-al-1968-Science-(New-York-NY).pdf

    (NOTE: the clickable portion of the link above is incomplete. You'll need to copy and paste the entire link to read the article)

    The distinction is important because if the US EPA quits giving the fracking industry a pass on deep wastewater injection, this all ends.

    Discussionist is more ridiculous than I remembered.

    Impact 25: This year's tribute to the important women in sports (ESPN)

    http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:14309863

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