July 1, 2023

I think it's more like: smart PROS have turned up the WEIRD factor via social media primarily

... for disruption.

tRump is a disrupter, but a chaotic one, unlike say Bezos, who was a creative disrupter of retail commerce.

Putin used social media to destabilize and polarize the US, via Prigozhin's web brigades in St Petersburg.

Rich people have incentives to disrupt and polarize the electorate because they think they can get CONs in by gerrymandering, denying water bottles in voting lines, and other tricks. To some extent their tricks have succeeded. Certainly they have magats in a perpetual state of outrage.

June 29, 2023

I think froggy Lukashenko has a Prigozhin scorpion on his back now

This was billed as, and Lukashenko is spinning it as, a diplomatic triumph by him. But now I'm thinking Putin foisted Prigozhin off onto Luka like he foisted tactical nukes onto him.

Putin is hoping Wagner in Belarus will tie up some Ukranian troops, just in case Prigozhin goes haywire in their direction.

But I do not think the whole coup attempt (capture the generals attempt) was a rigged kabuki show between Prigozhin and Putin, and especially not to simply get some Wagners stationed near Kiev. I think Putin did not kill Prigo, out of fondness. On the other hand, he is glad to have him out of his hair and Wagner broken into smaller pieces.

June 29, 2023

Not totally, but he's stupid like tRump. They never ever revisit basic assumptions; example RFKJr

RFKJr based his anti-vax campaign on fraudulent research that gave false hope to many parents. But since it has been discredited and dropped, RFKJr has not changed his position on the issue.

The really stupid thing is that he doesn't even have to admit he was wrong. If he REALLY CARED about people, he'd say "Okay science corrects itself, we need to find the solution to autism elsewhere than vax shots". Then he'd move on to advocating for other ways to help parents of autists.

But there you have the proof that RFKJr is more ego than help. He is convinced that changing his positions to meet reality and the facts would make him look weak as a politician. He may not even be conscious of such a decision, but his actions are a big "tell".

In this way he is like tRump and many RepubliConners, conning sheeple. I don't often apply the word "evil", and there are gradations of evil. But ego over people's needs is at least some evil.

Real leaders read reality and lead the public to real solutions, even if they were initially against one, that help people and society more than their own egos and political mythos.

June 25, 2023

3,000 metres deep, Putin heard first crack of impending implosion

Putin's rule is at the 3,000 metre depth, maybe like the Titan submersible. He's heard the first crack when Wagner began racing toward Moscow and local guardia did not resist.

He may release weights (fire a few people) and he may dig up the scuba tanks under the floorboards (attempt a full mobilization), but ....


Implosions are impossible until they happen. Then they are over in milliseconds.

Putin's rule is going to die some day of the unexpectedlies. Putin himself may die of the suddenlies.

June 25, 2023

Sleepy Joe beats McCarthy on debt & supposedly runs coups in Europe while controlling massive crime

That's powerful sleepiness.

The rejoinder magats propose is that Obama is in his third term pulling puppet strings.

Knock that down and then the rebuttal from magats is that WEF and Soros are controlling Obama who is controlling Biden who is controlling everything.

June 23, 2023

Getting it to the audience inside of the bubble is the toughest of the 4 to crack, but there is a wa

The way, I think, is to hit the other 3 hard: get the rebuttal out Fast, Clear, and True. If it is gotten out, even if only initially to favorable audiences (thinking social media and who follows media outlets and popular podcasters) those people will spread it as rebuttals to target audiences on social media.

The quicker the true facts of a fuss are made known, the quicker the propaganda dies in its cradle.
The clearer it is, the more favorable audiences spread it.
The truer it is, the more persistent it is.

June 23, 2023

Anti-propaganda succeeds with: Fast, Targeted, Simple (Clear), True. . . . . nt

June 23, 2023

It would cost US many times over MORE taxes if he died before being convicted

If he is convicted and especially if he gets a reasonable (harsh) sentence which would include prison time, then it sends a clear signal to wanna-be Autocrats and Totalitarians: DON'T even think it.

But if he dies before trial or before conviction, then totalitarians will tend to think "ooh! He got away with it! It's worth trying!". That would cost the US huge amounts of economic turmoil and huge costs suppressing it all, yet again. Not suppressing it is not an option.

June 19, 2023

Three bundles of points to avoid opinion poll freakouts

Some recent polls suggest tRump might be tied with or even lead Biden regarding the Presidential election in November 2024.

1: Over a year to election
2: tRump might even be convicted by Nov 2024
3: Modern polls have higher bogosity indices.

1: I think there is a better than 50% chance tRump will not be the Republicon party nominee. I might be prone to lapses of wishful thinking in this scenario, but I think that indictments and pre-trial motions will be in the news and weighing on voters minds as Jan 2024 approaches and arrives with the primaries. Already on the calendar: a March court date for trial for tRump in NYC.

A real possibility is that as the primaries approach or begin or develop, tRump might be in so much trouble that Republicons reject him and the party big wigs might even move to block his nomination, especially if there is any felony conviction by that point, whatever the exact time.

Such developments might lead to tRump doing a third-party run, splitting the RepubliQon party.

In the run-up to that point (first primaries/caucuses) there will be lots of leaks from outside the tRump inner defense team (lawyers, Nauta, Beavis and Butthead). tRump is likely to continue adding minor admissions of criminality to his heap by his social media postings.

Some action by SEC on the funding of the (un)TruthSocial fiasco would be unexpected but certainly possible, and would shine light on tRump's business incompetence and malfeasance and grifting.

The LIV/PGA golf capitulation and whitewash of bone saw Saudis is attracting possible investigation.

Kushner's magic $2,000,000,000 may also leak and might even explode.

Bedminster might suddenly erupt.

And there is Willis, NYC state civil investigation, further E. Jean Carroll litigation, ....

2: Even if tRump is not convicted or has not started trial by Nov 2024, he will be under multiple indictments and cronies will have been indicted.

The indictments have a corrosive acid drip effect. Initially and perhaps long term they consolidate his base, the Always Trump or Only Trump basket of deplorables. But slowly they work their effect on more moderate Republicans and independents. It won't win him new converts other than a few easily swayed low-info types who are impressed by the "America is now a banana republic" memes. Even they will swing back as it becomes clearer just how criminal tRump has been.

3: Often not stated in OPs is whether a poll is online, includes cell phones, or is landline only (for example, YouGov does a lot of online polls I think). There is a lot of spoofing in polls, goes both ways. Response rates are abysmally low, like 3% ? Greater variability and less predictive power since 2000.

June 17, 2023

Lots of tactical & strategic reasons BECAUSE of the seriousness

Because of the seriousness you identify, such charges need to stick. Especially when the target is the king or, rather the king of the wannabes, der Hair Fuehrer. The old adage about "you get only one shot at the king" applies. If tRump defeats Espionage or Treason charges, he would become very strong as many independents and wavering Republicans would be attracted back.

There are many thorny issues which surround the tRump Crime Clusterfuck. Many are ridiculously posed by fawning cult members, like he declassified them in his mind or they are automatically declassified if he took documents before the Inauguration of Biden. But other issues are less clear to me, and there are undoubtedly important issues I can't imagine, which is why we have professionals like Jack Smith. But Smith has reason to tread at least a little cautiously, since he lost a case 9-0 at the Supreme Court. Regardless, I place my confidence in Smith.

Yes, there is an urgent need to convict tRump of serious crimes including possibly Treason and Espionage, but there are times when doing something right has priority over doing it fast, and I think this may be one of them. We need to get to the bottom of the missing documents and deal with whatever repercussions flow from their disposition.