October 10, 2016

Chichiri's State of The Election - 29 Days to Go

This map was created by my own analysis of several poll aggregators and modelers.





The solid blue states add up to 273 electoral votes. If anyone can think of a realistic scenario under which Hillary loses any of those states, I'd like to hear it.

I'm regarding Ohio as gray right now because, although several pollsters and modelers currently have it leaning blue, the consensus is pretty weak -- that is, while the polls are leaning our way, it's not by much. I want to see more polling in the state.

As of this writing, Arizona is pale blue in 538's Now-cast. That's a very volatile model, and I don't expect that will hold unless we see a rather large sea change from this weekend, but it's certainly heartwarming!