August 3, 2016

Just noticed election.princeton.edu, an election forecast site, uses the term "Trump-safe" state...

Let that sink in for a moment. There are Trump-safe states.


By the way, they are as good as, if not better than, 538: http://election.princeton.edu

August 2, 2016

Newsweek Cover Story: Donald Trump's Many Business Failures, Explained

http://www.newsweek.com/2016/08/12/donald-trumps-business-failures-election-2016-486091.html

DONALD TRUMP'S MANY BUSINESS FAILURES, EXPLAINED

BY KURT EICHENWALD
ON 8/2/16 AT 6:10 AM

COVER STORY

- snip -

Lost contracts, bankruptcies, defaults, deceptions and indifference to investors—Trump’s business career is a long, long list of such troubles, according to regulatory, corporate and court records, as well as sworn testimony and government investigative reports. Call it the art of the bad deal, one created by the arrogance and recklessness of a businessman whose main talent is self-promotion.

He is also pretty good at self-deception, and plain old deception. Trump is willing to claim success even when it is not there, according to his own statements. “I’m just telling you, you wouldn’t say that you're failing,” he said in a 2007 deposition when asked to explain why he would give an upbeat assessment of his business even if it was in trouble. “If somebody said, ‘How you doing?’ you're going to say you're doing good.” Perhaps such dissembling is fine in polite cocktail party conversation, but in the business world it’s called lying.

And while Trump is quick to boast that his purported billions prove his business acumen, his net worth is almost unknowable given the loose standards and numerous outright misrepresentations he has made over the years. In that 2007 deposition, Trump said he based estimates of his net worth at times on “psychology” and “my own feelings.” But those feelings are often wrong—in 2004, he presented unaudited financials to Deutsche Bank while seeking a loan, claiming he was worth $3.5 billion. The bank concluded Trump was, to say the least, puffing; it put his net worth at $788 million, records show. (Trump personally guaranteed $40 million of the loan to his company, so Deutsche coughed up the money. He later defaulted on that commitment.)

Trump’s many misrepresentations of his successes and his failures matter—a lot. As a man who has never held so much as a city council seat, there is little voters can examine to determine if he is competent to hold office. He has no voting record and presents few details about specific policies. Instead, he sells himself as qualified to run the country because he is a businessman who knows how to get things done, and his financial dealings are the only part of his background available to assess his competence to lead the country. And while Trump has had a few successes in business, most of his ventures have been disasters.

MORE AT LINK

August 2, 2016

AP sources: CEO at Democratic National Committee Resigns (Amy Dacey)

Source: Associated Press

AP sources: CEO at Democratic National Committee Resigns

By JULIE BYKOWICZ and JULIE PACE
Aug. 2, 2016 12:54 PM EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) — The chief executive of the Democratic National Committee has resigned in the wake of an email hack that embarrassed the party on the eve of its convention.

That's according to three Democratic strategists familiar with Amy Dacey's decision to leave her job. The people spoke on condition of anonymity, because they were not authorized to discuss it publicly.

The Democrats say other personnel moves at the party are also expected Tuesday.

The content of the hacked emails exposed an apparent lack of neutrality in the primary race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, with party officials disparaging Sanders.


Read more: http://bigstory.ap.org/f7ebd00c63fa43169ec9b7609fe851f3

August 2, 2016

Fred Tomlinson, Singer, Songwriter on Monty Python, Dies ("Lumberjack Song," Vikings Spam)

Source: Telegraph UK

Fred Tomlinson, Singer, Songwriter on Monty Python - Obituary

2 AUGUST 2016 • 5:24PM

Fred Tomlinson, who has died aged 88, was the founder and leader of the Fred Tomlinson Singers, who provided vocals for Monty Python’s Flying Circus, The Two Ronnies and other television shows.

For some 20 years from the late 1960s Tomlinson’s singing, playing, arranging, compositional and even whistling skills were frequently called upon for musical items in television programmes.

Among other things he co-wrote the Python team’s Lumberjack Song (his singers played the Mounties in the original sketch and the Vikings singing Spam! Wonderful Spam! in another famous skit) and had a starring role as a soloist on The Two Ronnies in the St Botolph Country Dance Team’s rendition of Bold Sir John. It was often left to Tomlinson to complete other people’s musical ideas. The comedians and script writers would come up with suggestions for a musical sketch and then say: “We’ll leave the rest to Fred.”

Tomlinson did not confine his musical interests to the popular field and, as a bass singer, was often roped in as a last minute “stiffener” by amateur choral groups. He did much work for John McCarthy and the Ambrosians, a vocal ensemble which performed at concerts and operas, as well as in musicals, films and television.

Read more: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2016/08/02/fred-tomlinson-singer-on-monty-python--obituary/

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"Among other things he co-wrote the Python team’s Lumberjack Song (his singers played the Mounties in the original sketch and the Vikings singing Spam! Wonderful Spam! in another famous skit)"

August 2, 2016

Paul Krugman Coins Term for Trump Behavior When Beginning to Realize for Sure He Will Lose:

'Derp Spiral'

August 1, 2016

Nate Silver: Clinton’s Bounce Appears Bigger Than Trump’s

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-bounce-appears-bigger-than-trumps/

AUG 1, 2016 AT 11:35 AM

Election Update: Clinton’s Bounce Appears Bigger Than Trump’s

By Nate Silver

Filed under 2016 Election
Initial polls conducted after the Democratic National Convention suggest that Hillary Clinton has received a convention bounce. In fact, it appears likely that Clinton’s bounce will exceed Donald Trump’s, which measured at 3 to 4 percentage points. Thus, Clinton will potentially exit the conventions in a stronger position than she entered them, perhaps also making up for some of the ground she lost to Trump earlier in July. This is good news for Clinton, but we’ll need to wait a few weeks to see if she can sustain her bounce before we can conclude that the race has been fundamentally changed.

Before we continue, a quick note or two about terminology. When we refer to a candidate’s “bounce,” we mean the net gain in her standing in the polls, including changes to her opponent’s vote share. For example, if the previous XYZ News poll had it Clinton 42 percent, Trump 40 percent, and their new poll has it Clinton 44, Trump 39, we’d call that a 3-point bounce for Clinton, since Clinton gained 2 percentage points and Trump lost 1 point.1

Also, when evaluating the gains a candidate has made, it’s important to note when the previous poll was conducted. Based on our models, Clinton led by 6 to 7 percentage points throughout most of June, but her lead dissipated to around 3 percentage points by mid- to late July, just before the conventions. Then, after the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Trump pulled into an approximate tie with Clinton. It’s those post-RNC polls that make for the best comparison when describing Clinton’s bounce.

So far, however, the post-convention polls have been strong enough for Clinton that there isn’t a lot of need to worry about semantics. They suggest that she possibly holds a lead over Trump in the mid- to high single digits, instead of being tied with him. Here are the fully post-convention polls we’ve seen so far:

- A CBS News poll has Clinton ahead by 5 percentage points, in the version of the poll that includes third-party candidates (which is the version FiveThirtyEight uses). Trump led Clinton by 1 point in a CBS News poll conducted just after the RNC, so that would count as a 6-point bounce for Clinton.

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