pnwmom
pnwmom's JournalRemember that national Reuters poll that appeared to show Hillary at 48 and Bernie at 45?
It was a pretty shocking result and didn't fit with any of the other polls released during the same period of time.
I've been trying, unsuccessfully, to find the internals on how that poll was conducted, to learn why it wasn't included in RCP's Averages of Polls, and another DUer pointed me to the answer.
IT WASN'T AN ACTUAL COMPLETED POLL.
It was the results of a single day conveniently snipped out of a Reuters rolling 3-day WEB poll. The actual completed poll put Hillary 15 points ahead of Bernie.
Any time a poll is wildly out of line with others, it's a good idea to check why that might be so, before trumpeting its results too loudly.
THANKS TO ERICH BLOODAXE BSN for emailing Huff Post with his question and posting the answer here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511165494#post6
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-23665
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 1/30-2/3)
2) 2016 National Democratic Primary
Asked of 619 Democratic registered voters
Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
Martin O'Malley (D) 2%
Bernie Sanders (D) 39%
Wouldn't vote 5%
RCP Poll AVERAGES: National, Clinton 50.4 vs. Sanders 36.4
New Hampshire: Sanders 53.6 Clinton 40.4
South Carolina: Clinton 62 Sanders 32.5
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/?state=nwa
I thought an OP about "racial battle fatigue" might be of general interest,
but maybe not.
Here's the link:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10027592100
In new DSM-5 (psychiatrists' "bible") PTSD definition now covers "racial battle fatigue"
http://www.medicaldaily.com/changes-dsm-5-racism-can-cause-ptsd-similar-soldiers-after-war-246177#.VrZsKNHawQc.facebookDr. Monnica T. Williams suggests that proposed changes in the criteria for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in the fifth edition of the Diagnostic Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5) could increase the potential for better recognition of race-based trauma in racial and ethnic minorities.
In a recent article in Psychology Today, Williams, who is a clinical psychologist and the associate director of the University of Louisville's Center for Mental Health Disparities, said that before the release of the DSM-5 Thursday, racism was recognized as a trauma that could potentially cause PTSD, but only in relation to a specific event. There had to be an incident of intense fear, helplessness, or horror for such consideration. For instance, if someone was assaulted in a racially-motivated event, then racism qualified as a sufficient trauma to be categorized as a cause of PTSD.
SNIP
In 2011, researchers found that African Americans who reported experiences of racial discrimination had higher odds of suffering from generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). An article on PsychCentral termed the phenomenon as "racial battle fatigue,” saying that "exposure to racial discrimination is analogous to the constant pressure soldiers face on the battlefield."
"While the term [racial battle fatigue] is certainly not trying to say that the conditions are exactly what soldiers face on a battlefield, it borrows from the idea that stress is created in chronically unsafe or hostile environments," said Dr. Jose Soto, Ph.D., associate professor of psychology at University of California, Berkeley.
Williams builds on that concept, saying that many minorities experience lasting, cumulative effects of racism that could lead to the development of PTSD. "It was found that in many cases, such as soldiers trained in combat, emotional responses are only felt afterward, once removed from the traumatic setting," she wrote. So, even when experiences aren't immediate and earth-shattering, their effects can have the magnitude to cause long-lasting trauma.
Has Bernie explained how his free public college tuition plan will work, given the fact that
the cost of public 4-year colleges and universities ranges from a low of $4222 in North Dakota to a high of $17,772 in Pennsylvania?
Will his plan really pay for 100% of tuition at ALL public colleges no matter how expensive?
Or a median amount (which is about $8K) or what?
If he thinks the Fed govt. should pay for 100% of any public college's tuition, then what measures would he have in place to keep cost increases in check? Why shouldn't all the $4,000 and $5,000 colleges immediately begin upgrades? Why shouldn't the $17,000 colleges look for more ways to spend money?
What if his plan to make Wall Street pay for all this doesn't yield enough money? Will he add on new taxes or cut back the program?
2014-2015 in-state tuition and fees: $4,222
Bismarck State College (ND)
http://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/slideshows/11-public-schools-with-the-lowest-in-state-tuition/11
$17,772
University of Pittsburgh
http://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/the-short-list-college/articles/2014/10/28/10-colleges-where-in-state-students-pay-the-most-tuition
Hillary's Flint Michigan speech: What happened in Flint was immoral.
http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/flint-water-crisis/2016/02/07/hillary-clinton-flint-campaign-stop/79902530/FLINT — Solving the problems of contaminated water in Flint has to remain a local, state and national priority for the foreseeable future, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton told city residents gathered in a Baptist church Sunday afternoon.
"Clean water is not optional, my friends. It’s not a luxury," she said. "This is not merely unacceptable or wrong. What happened in Flint is immoral. Children in Flint are just as precious as children in any part of America."
Clinton said she's been meeting with Michigan's congressional delegation to make sure that the federal government kicks in at least $200 million to fix the city's lead-damaged infrastructure. The measure stalled in the U.S. Senate last week as Michigan Sens. Debbie Stabenow and Gary Peters blocked passage of an energy bill because it didn't include funding for Flint.
SNIP
Flint Mayor Karen Weaver said in a smaller meeting with Clinton, after her remarks at the church, that Clinton is the only candidate who has reached out to the city of Flint and the only one who has been talking about the situation at the national level. She also said that the state didn't start moving aggressively on the issue until Clinton spoke up.
"We want you back home. We want you back in the White House," Weaver said.
SNIP
Clinton has been talking about the Flint water issue for weeks, calling on both the state and federal government to make the situation right. She even suggested Sunday that Flint residents be given the opportunity to do the work to replace the city's pipes or that workers with the federally funded AmeriCorps program could come in and help try to solve the problem.
SNIP
Iowa Democratic party completes review: 5 incorrect tallies out of 14 contested results.
Sanders made slight gains as a result of 3 of the corrections; and Sanders had slight losses in 2 of the corrections.The final overall result hasn't changed.
http://iowademocrats.org/iowa-democratic-caucus-results-updated-after-idp-completes-review/
Iowa Democratic Caucus Results Updated After IDP Completes Review
Josh Levitt February 7th, 2016 Posted In: News, Press Release
Des Moines—Over the past week, to ensure the accuracy of our results the Iowa Democratic Party worked with the Sanders campaign, the Clinton campaign and local party leadership to review results from 14 precinct caucuses.
These follow-up reviews were in addition to the work we did on caucus night, where we worked with the campaign representatives in our tabulation room and our precinct and county chairs to resolve any issues that arose from the 1,681 Democratic precincts.
We reviewed the 14 precincts on a case-by-case basis, and in each instance reached out to our precinct and county chairs on the ground for a full accounting of the results. Nine of the 14 precincts were confirmed to be correct as reported on caucus night, while five instances of reporting errors were found:
Marion County, Knoxville 3 Precinct:
Reported As: 5 county convention delegates for Clinton, 4 county convention delegates for Sanders
Confirmed As: 4 county convention delegates for Clinton, 5 county convention delegates for Sanders
Net Change: Sanders gains 0.13 state delegate equivalents (SDEs); Clinton loses 0.13 SDEs
Woodbury County, 43 Oto/Oto Township Precinct:
Reported As: 1 county convention delegate for Clinton
Confirmed As: 1 county convention delegate for Sanders
Net Change: Sanders gains 0.15 SDEs, Clinton loses 0.15 SDEs
Osceola County, Ashton Precinct:
Reported As: 3 county convention delegates for O’Malley, 4 county convention delegates for Sanders
Confirmed As: 4 county convention delegates for O’Malley, 3 county convention delegates fro Sanders
Net Change: O’Malley gains 0.0167 SDEs, Sanders loses 0.0167 SDEs
Story County, Sherman Township Precinct:
Reported As: 1 county convention delegate for Sanders
Confirmed As: 1 county convention delegate for Clinton
Net Change: Clinton gains 0.23 SDEs, Sanders loses 0.23 SDEs
Poweshiek County, 1st Ward Grinnell:
Reported As: 18 county convention delegates for Sanders, 8 county convention delegates for Clinton
Confirmed As: 19 county convention delegates for Sanders, 7 county convention delegates for Clinton
Net Change: Sanders gains 0.072 SDEs, Clinton loses 0.072 SDEs
Total net Change:
Sanders gains 0.1053 SDEs
Clinton loses 0.122 SDEs
O’Malley gains 0.0167 SDEs
Updated Results:
Clinton: 700.47 SDEs (–0.122 SDEs) 49.84%
Sanders: 696.92 SDEs (+0.1053 SDEs) 49.59%
O’Malley: 7.63 SDEs (+0.0167 SDEs) 0.54%
Uncommitted: 0.46 SDEs (unchanged) 0.03%
Important judicial ruling in Chris Christie bridge case:
A judge ruled that the criminal defendants, former allies of Christie's, can subpoena the documents used to prepare the report that whitewashed him.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/bridge-case-defendants-court-seeking-christie-office-docs-36738814
The two former allies of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie charged in the George Washington Bridge lane-closing case will get a second chance to force the release of documents from the law firm whose taxpayer-funded 2014 report absolved Christie of blame.
U.S. District Judge Susan Wigenton on Friday said attorneys for Bill Baroni and Bridget Kelly can subpoena the Gibson, Dunn and Crutcher law firm for what they contend are thousands of pages of relevant documents, particularly communications between people in Christie's office and the bridge's operator during the September 2013 closures.
In its response to a grand jury subpoena by the U.S. attorney's office when it was assembling the indictment, the firm provided a list of documents — some thousands of pages long, defense lawyers say — that the firm said were privileged communications by Christie staffers that couldn't be released.
Baroni and Kelly were indicted last spring on wire fraud, civil rights and other charges for allegedly orchestrating the closures of access lanes to the bridge to punish a mayor for not endorsing Christie's re-election.
Their trial is scheduled for mid-May.
SNIP
Hillary's SHOCKING 2014 Goldman Sachs speech. Here's the video, which has been
on the internet for a year.
GS hosted a dinner promoting its 10,000 women initiative at the Clinton Foundation. It's all about empowering women in business. The horror!
On September 23, 2014, Goldman Sachs 10,000 Women hosted its annual dinner at the Clinton Global Initiative.
The event featured a keynote address from former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on the business case for empowering women to ensure future economic growth.
http://www.goldmansachs.com/citizenship/10000women/news-and-events/10kwprogressreport.html
In 2008, the 10,000 Women initiative was launched by the Goldman Sachs Foundation to educate women entrepreneurs in emerging economies. The initiative was designed specifically to provide a business education, access to mentors and networks, and links to capital for 10,000 underserved women operating small businesses. By the close of 2013, the initiative had enrolled its 10,000th woman.
The findings of the report demonstrate that the 10,000 Women initiative makes a difference in how women entrepreneurs grow their businesses, how they develop personally and how they make a contribution to society. The key conclusions of the report are:
• Women can be exceptional entrepreneurs across a diverse array of country and cultural contexts
• 10,000 Women helps entrepreneurs grow their businesses and develop their business acumen
• Mentoring, advising and networks are highly valued in the growth process
Women entrepreneurs grow their businesses despite a lack of external financing
SNIP
If anyone's worrying now about EMP risks, yes, we should prepare for that.
The risk is real. But not because of terrorist attacks -- because of the SUN.
And if we prepare our infrastructure to deal with a sudden electro-magnetic "attack" from the sun, that would also incidentally help prevent a terrorist from getting incredibly lucky.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/15/no-you-dont-really-need-to-worry-about-an-emp-attack/
Republican warnings about an electro-magnetic pulse (EMP) attack, explained
So Iran or a terrorist would need a missile capable of delivering a large bomb to a precise point in the sky. As Butt wrote for Space Review in 2010, that's just not feasible. Rogue nations don't have nuclear capabilities of that kind or, according to Butt, the means of delivering them. If such a strike were to happen tomorrow, with a newly-built hydrogen bomb on a new type of missile, whoever launched it would be relying on an awful lot of luck that everything would go right. And it wouldn't take us long to figure out who did it.
Anyway, if you want to damage the United States, it's far easier to drop a nuclear bomb in the middle of Manhattan than to detonate it in the atmosphere. "Putting yourself in the mindframe of a terrorist that just wants to cause harm," Butt said, "it doesn't make much sense."
SNIP
A coronal mass ejection from the Sun could send a magnetic field toward Earth that could cause an E3-like effect on the transformers that make up our electrical grid. Butt repeatedly noted that while the threat of a nuclear EMP was small, the threat of a solar one was real. (As he noted in a 2012 article for the Times, it appears to have happened a few years ago in Quebec.)
"Let's not throw out the solar-geomagnetic baby with the EMP bathwater," he said. Preparing our infrastructure to handle an EMP from the Sun would help us prevent damage during a hostile strike, as well."
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