February 4, 2016

State govts. run primaries. State PARTIES run caucuses--by their OWN rules.

Most state election laws don't apply to caucuses; and the only appeal to the results of a state caucus is the party itself -- not the government.

In the state of Washington, the voters passed a referendum establishing primaries. But then the Democratic Party went to court, asserting that only the party could decide how it wanted to assign delegates -- and the court agreed. So in WA people can still vote in the State Primary -- but the results are only a "beauty contest." The real business of assigning delegates is done by the party, through its caucuses.

The messiness of which you have all just seen demonstrated in Iowa.

Wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_primary

Types of primaries and caucuses

Franchise in a primary or caucus is governed by rules established by the state party, although the states may impose other regulations.

While most states hold primary elections, a handful of states hold caucuses. Instead of going to a polling place, voters attend local private events run by the political parties, and cast their selections there. The advantage of caucuses is that the state party runs the process directly instead of having the state and local governments run them. The disadvantage is that most election laws do not normally apply to caucuses.


From the WA Secretary of State website:

https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/2016-Presidential-Primary.aspx#q7

What is the difference between a primary and a caucus?

One of the main differences between a primary election and a caucus is who is running the show. State governments conduct primaries, while state parties are behind caucuses. In both processes, voters are selecting candidates who will move on to the presidential election in November.


How will the political parties use the results of the Presidential Primary?

The political parties retain the authority to decide if they will use the Presidential Primary to allocate delegates to the national nomination conventions. The political parties may also use caucus results, or a combination of primary results and caucus results.

February 4, 2016

OMG. Who ever heard of ANYBODY EVER claiming victory with a mere two point advantage?

How dare that uppity Hillary claim victory with a final delegate score of 23 to 21!



It was all so gauche.

Doesn’t she know how unladylike her behavior was? How presumptuous and self-important and impolite? And so SELFISH -- not to concede to Bernie the “virtual tie” he so fervently believed belonged to Him.

The nerve of that woman, arrogantly announcing her win merely because mathematics proved there was no way for Him to close the gap; and Iowa rules provided for no recount. Did she actually expect she’d be allowed to think for herself?

To apply logic and reason and come to the inevitable conclusion?

How dare she not know her proper place, which was to sit quietly and wait till the Big Boys at the AP -- or at Sanders headquarters -- finally did the math and figured it all out.

BUT FINALLY:

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/02/02/bernie-sanders-challenge-caucus-results-hillary-clinton-wins-iowa.html

No wonder the Bros are still shouting “Bern the witch!”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-trumble/bern-the-witch-hunters_b_9145148.html

Bern the Witch-Hunters

Being a foreigner in an adoptive land, this was my first close-up view of American democracy in action: a civil, non-violent difference of opinion with a common goal shared by all.

SNIP


The Sanders campaign has no need for attack ads, their supporters write infinitely more toxic slurs and accusations in countless blogs, tweets, Facebook posts and memes. Bernie doesn't have to talk about Clinton's "damn emails", his fans have already upgraded to analysing every caucus coin toss for the merest hint of conspiracy. Neither does he have to resort to the indignity of calling his opponent names, as his loyal mob are already calling her, AND her supporters, every name in the book, and only show signs of getting worse. Even the beloved chorus of "Feel the Bern" has been warped and twisted from its original context, abrogated to the more violent and misogynistic chant of "Bern the witch!", less a policy-based mic-drop and more of a social media petrol-bomb.

And the saddest part: Bernie most certainly DOES NOT approve this message.

_________________________________________


If there’s anyone left who still believes it was a 22/22 tie, here is the AP explaining why the best person won. 23 to 21.

FROM THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_2016_ELECTION_RACE_CALL?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Q: If Clinton won the caucuses, why didn't she get all the delegates?

A: It's not winner take all.

Iowa Democrats award delegates proportionally, based on the statewide vote and the vote in individual congressional districts. Clinton won two more delegates than Sanders - the tally was 23-21 - even though the vote was very close to a tie. That is because she got the most votes in one congressional district. Seven delegates were at stake in the Third District; she won 4, he won 3.

Also, a pot of 9 delegates was awarded based on the statewide vote. By narrowly winning the statewide vote, Clinton got 5 and Sanders got 4.

---

Q: So, what's the delegate count heading into New Hampshire?

A: Clinton has a big lead, thanks to the party establishment.

Party officials known as superdelegates can support the candidate of their choice. When superdelegates are counted, Clinton has a total of 385 delegates and Sanders only has 29. More than half of the party's superdelegates have decided whom to support - though they can always change their minds.

It takes 2,382 delegates to win the Democratic nomination for president.

February 4, 2016

CNN commentator: Bernie says, DREAM. Hillary says, "DREAM WITH YOUR EYES OPEN."

I don't watch much TV so I'm afraid I don't know the name of the man who said this, a young African American.

But I thought he put it so well.

She should put that on campaign materials, if it isn't already.

February 4, 2016

In the Town Hall Hillary Clinton cited Henry Nouwen, the Dutch Jesuit who said,

"Practice the Discipline of Gratitude."

Her thoughtful response to the Rabbi's question will touch so many Americans, I think.

ON EDIT: A CNN commentator said that her response to this question "lifted the veil on Hillary Clinton."

February 3, 2016

Not a coincidence: Hillary and Bernie are neck and neck among white voters nationally

and in Iowa, where 94% of voters are white.

IOW, the results in Iowa reflect the two candidates' national standing among white vs. minority voters. Since the state is overwhelmingly white, the vote reflects their preferences.

But the national party includes MANY voters who are people of color, and we will start hearing more of their voices soon.

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1175a2TheDemocraticContest.pdf

Regardless, the candidates’ support profiles indicate why Iowa and New Hampshire might not be the best places to gauge their strength nationally. Clinton leads Sanders by a broad 67-28 percent nationally among nonwhites, vs. a virtual dead heat among whites, 45-43 percent. Whites accounted for 93 percent of Democratic caucus participants in Iowa and 95 percent in the party’s New Hampshire primary in 2008, vs. 65 percent across all primaries in which exit polls were conducted that year.

February 3, 2016

The turnout of 171,000 in Iowa was FAR BELOW the 2008 turnout of 240,000.

If you want to know why Bernie didn't win, this could have been predicted from turnout alone. Unfortunately, people didn't turn out the way they had for Obama. Bernie had extremely strong support among young people, but there weren't enough of them there.

Nate Silver and others had always said Bernie's winning depended on turnout. He succeeded in getting more out there than usual, but his numbers were not close to Obama's. And if you look at the state county maps, outside of college counties, the mostly older Hillary voters were out in force.

February 3, 2016

How GOP super-pacs have spent millions attacking Hillary on Bernie's behalf.

They want to run against him in the fall, so they've been spending millions to try to help his candidacy along.

I'm not saying this is Bernie's fault or that he can control it.

But it isn't only Bernie who has been doing so well against Hillary; it's Bernie with a big (unrequested) assist from "uber-conservative" super-pacs.

He's not been lowering himself to mudslinging and attacks, but these groups specialize in it.

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/02/01/bernie-sanders-super-pac-money-democratic-rivals.html

It is noteworthy that Senator Sander’s “inconsistent” rise to Super PAC pre-eminence is, in part, due to an unusual pairing of the Sanders campaign and Republican and ultra-conservative super PAC spending to attack Hillary Clinton. Of course the conservatives’ intent is simply to “elevate an avowed socialist.” One that Republicans, conservatives, and the Koch brothers believe will be easy to disparage in a general election. Don’t believe conservative PACs are helping Senator Sanders?

In just one recent ad from the influential Republican super PAC American Crossroads, the uber-conservative group spent a substantial amount of its and the Kochs’ $4.3 million against Clinton parroting a constant Sanders’ attack against Clinton for earning Wall Street speaking fees. There have been no small number of pundits who have suggested, not errantly according to the American Crossroads ad campaign, that a fair share of the attacks on Clinton from “alleged” liberals are being funded and promoted by uber-conservative groups.

If one looks at it from that perspective, Senator Sanders’ campaign is being funded and assisted by more than just one special interest super PAC, and at least one of them is run by Karl Rove.

There is nothing wrong with a campaign taking special interest money; at least not according to Citizens United ruling that Sanders abhors. However, there is an issue when a candidate fairly bases a key part of their campaign and appeal on “shunning” special interest and super PAC money; all while claiming it is funded by grass roots contributors and now Americans know by special interests and super PACs; even uber-conservative super PACs.

February 3, 2016

Iowa State Democratic spokesman: Bernie won coin flips, too.

But before we go nuts about coin flips -- which involved county delegates, not state delegates - let's pay more attention to the whole messy system and how all the delegates are assigned.

Bottom line: a single delegate can represent widely varying numbers of voters, depending on the precinct. A primary system does a much better job of representing the votes of individual voters than a caucus system.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-coin-flips-iowa-caucus/459429/

The Democratic caucuses in Iowa on Monday were so close that more than a dozen delegates were awarded based on coin flips.

How many is not exactly clear—the state party doesn’t track all the games of chance that occur as part of the complex process for divvying up delegates at hundreds of caucus sites across the state. But despite initial reports that Hillary Clinton had improbably run the table, it appears that Bernie Sanders won a sizable share of coin tosses as well, according to information provided on Tuesday by the state Democratic Party.

SNIP

Games of chance have been included in the Democratic caucus rules “forever,” said Norm Sterzenbach, a former executive director of the state part who oversaw the nominating contests in 2008 and 2012. “It happens, but it’s not frequent,” he said in an interview on Tuesday afternoon. They usually occur when calculations for electing delegates to the county convention result in an extra delegate that can’t be assigned to one candidate by rounding. The county delegates are distinct from the “state delegation equivalents,” which is what the party uses to determine how many delegates each candidates secures for the national convention in Philadelphia. Clinton finished with 700.59 state delegate equivalents to 696.82 for Sanders, yet because county delegates are worth a “tiny fraction” of the state delegates, Sterzenbach said he could say “with absolute certainty” that the coin flips did not determine the outcome in Iowa.

The early reports out of caucus sites gave a different impression. The Des Moines Register collected reports from six different precincts that resorted to coin flips—and Clinton won all of them. But Sam Lau, a spokesman for the Iowa Democratic Party, said that Sanders fared better in the games of chance that were reported through the party’s official mobile app. He won six of those seven coin flips—a fact that underlines how incomplete the available data remains, and the likelihood that a full accounting of all the coin flips on Monday night would yield a more even result than initial reports suggested.

February 2, 2016

NYTimes: 23 delegates for Hillary, 21 for Bernie. Not including super delegates.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/03/us/politics/hillary-clinton-declared-winner-of-iowa-caucuses.html?_r=0

February 2, 2016

In the precinct with the 60 missing voters, could they have just left

after they first voted, thinking their main job was done? They weren't locked inside, were they?

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/02/02/sometimes-iowa-democrats-award-caucus-delegates-coin-flip/79680342/

It happened in precinct 2-4 in Ames, where supporters of candidates Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton disputed the results after 60 caucus participants apparently disappeared from the proceedings.

As a result of the coin toss, Clinton was awarded an additional delegate, meaning she took five of the precinct’s eight, while Sanders received three.

Similar situations played out at various precincts across the state, but had an extremely small effect on the overall outcome, in which Clinton won 49.9 percent of statewide delegate equivalents, while Sanders won 49.5 percent. The delegates that were decided by coin flips were delegates to the party's county conventions, of which there are thousands selected across the state from 1,681 separate precincts. They were not the statewide delegate equivalents that are reported in the final results.

The statewide delegate equivalents that determine the outcome on caucus night are derived from the county-level delegates, but are aggregated across the state and weighted in a manner that makes individual county delegate selections at a handful of precincts count for a tiny fraction of the ultimate result.