By Simon Watkins - Aug 28, 2019, 6:00 PM CDT

... “Iran’s view is now that the U.S. will not launch the full-scale military attack that was previously expected, that the U.S. is increasingly isolated in its actions against Iran among its allies in Europe and even in the U.K.,” a senior source who works closely with Iran’s Petroleum Ministry told OilPrice.com last week. “At the same time, Iran believes it can lever the U.S. back into a newly renegotiated nuclear deal involving the removal of all sanctions,” he added.

Up until a couple of months or so ago, the U.S. was actively considering a full-scale military operation against Iran and was “98 per cent ready” for such an all-out attack, according to senior political sources in Washington and London spoken to by OilPrice.com last week. “The remaining two percent involved the final movement of men and materiel into attack positions and finalising the technology and software involved,” said one. “At that point, [John] Bolton [U.S. National Security Advisor] was the dominant voice in [U.S. President Donald] Trump’s ear, and this meant moving at least 120,000 troops into position to augment the [U.S.S Abraham Lincoln aircraft] carrier group that was already in place. At about the same point, though, some of the President’s very close longstanding personal advisers and very senior CIA figures persuaded him that it would be an utter disaster, both militarily and economically, given the scale of the Iranian military and the terrain involved, its ability to launch guerrilla warfare anywhere in the world through its military proxies Hezbollah and Hamas and others, and its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz,” one of the sources added. “In short, it was put to him that such a [full scale] military attack on Iran would lead to consequences potentially of a least the same length as the Afghanistan conflict and of at least the severity of Islamic State’s peak power,” he added...

--- Opposing Bolton and the other hawks in the U.S. are some of the most senior figures in the U.S. intelligence community. One of these, Dan Coats, left his position as Director of National Intelligence U.S. National Intelligence – purportedly over differences with others in the Trump administration over Russia and North Korea – but also shortly after even he testified to a Senate Committee prior to the withdrawal of the U.S from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) deal that there was no indication that Iran was attempting to develop a nuclear weapon and that Tehran remained in compliance with the deal.

Another notable exception to the pro-attack view, OilPrice.com understands, is the CIA’s Head of Iran Mission Center, Michael D’Andrea. Known as ‘the Dark Prince’ for his work in the U.S.’s sharp-end counter-terrorism operations after the ‘9/11’ attacks, and even the key figure in organising the elimination of one of Hezbollah’s leaders, Imad Mougniyeh, in Damascus, in 2008 – when D’Andrea was Head of the CIA’s Counterterrorism Center (from 2006) – he has voiced concerns over such an overt military strategy...

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/The-CIAs-Dark-Prince-Doesnt-Want-War-With-Iran.html#

... There is only one way Johnson can be stopped: by the Commons placing its confidence in another one of its members, the effect of which will be to oblige the Queen to ask him or her to form a new government. This candidate will have to be backed by the main opposition party, Labour. Obviously, it would be the Labour leader himself if these were normal times. As they are not, the Liberal Democrats think Ken Clarke, a Tory survivor from the Pleistocene epoch, is the man to take the country into a safe harbour, aided perhaps by the ‘Mother of the House’ Harriet Harman.

Even if this unlikely job-share took off it could not fly with any success for very good non-party reasons. An interim administration elected simply to extend Article 50 and call an election and/or hold a referendum is not merely interim. Stopgap it may be, but what kind of stopgap it is will decide whether it is publicly acceptable. The Lib Dems seek a restoration of the days before the referendum. They have selected Harman and Clarke not because they are wise but because they are safe.

Safety at a moment like this is regressive. You cannot stand still in a hurricane. We need boldness and daring that is bolder and more daring than Johnson. Johnson claims to represent the future, or at least a future. It may be a bleak intensification of Thatcherism, yet it appears modern in spirit and positive in its claims. As an electoral showdown is looming whatever happens, Johnson and his boosterism must be opposed by a person and a set of arguments that make a better, more credible, higher-energy claim on the future, to mobilise the forces against him in a way that is appealing and not just polarising or, worst of all, reasonable in a Harman and Clarke kind of way.

The only way to stop Johnson, therefore, is with the widest possible alliance of forces who oppose a dangerous rupture with the EU, led by an MP who is backed by Labour. If Corbyn can command such a majority the job should be his. But his very qualities of unbending integrity count against him as an alliance-builder. And his claims to lead the country against a Johnson Brexit have been undermined by the catastrophic error of regarding relations with the EU as a secondary issue that can be weaponised to lever Labour into office, rather than a fundamental call about the nature and direction of the country. I don't know the House of Commons, but everyone seems to agree that Corbyn cannot command the widest possible alliance. In which case he has to ask someone else who can. Someone who can do it for all of us.

There is only one MP who is so qualified: Caroline Lucas. She personifies the commitment to democracy, the desire to unite people and an outstanding record on the environment, and is not tainted by participating in the old regime. She also has the advantage of her weakness: she does not represent a party threat to any of those calculating their own benefit...

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/its-boris-johnson-or-caroline-lucas/?fbclid=IwAR0dpHoJngDnQ7KU3Ve-KdRvE1jbUXdiyVKVj06uhruhHLfGl3HoJWoKpKQ

... Johnson has been able to take over without facing the electorate because of the polite constitutional fiction that it is the same Conservative government continuing and nothing has changed. Yet he justifies the prorogation of parliament by the argument that it is a new government and a new Queen’s Speech is thus needed. Johnson is of course famously in favour of having cake and eating it, but the chutzpah of this is breathtaking...

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2019/08/boris-johnson-crosses-the-rubicon-we-must-react-now/

... The monarch appoints the UK Prime Minister. The convention is that this must be the person who can command the support of the majority in the House of Commons. That does not necessarily have to be from a single party, it can be via a coalition or pact with other parties, but the essential point, established since Hanoverian times, is that the individual must have a majority in the Commons.

The very appointment of Boris Johnson by Elizabeth Saxe Coburg Gotha was a constitutional outrage. Johnson may have been selected by Conservative Party members, but that is not the qualification to be PM. Johnson very plainly did not command a majority in the House of Commons, proven by the fact that still at no stage has he demonstrated that he does...

... The monarchy will always be an extremely useful institution in promoting the political aims of the upper classes, not least because of the ludicrous media promulgation of its infallibility. When you have former Prime Minister John Major, senior Tories like Philip Hammond and Michael Heseltine, and the Speaker of the House of Commons himself all talking of “consitutional outrage”, it is plainly preposterous to insist that the monarchy cannot, by definition, have done anything wrong.

The Queen has appointed a Prime Minister who does not have the support of the House of Commons and then has conspired to prevent the House of Commons from obstructing her Prime Minister. That is not the action of a politically neutral monarchy. The institution should have been abolished decades ago. I do hope that all those who recognise the constitutional outrage, will acknowledge the role of the monarchy and that the institution needs to be swiftly abolished...

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2019/08/the-queens-active-role-in-the-right-wing-coup/

Labour MP says the monarchy could be abolished after Queen approves PM's plan to suspend Parliament

Kate Osamor, Labour MP for Edmonton ... wrote: “The Queen should look at what happened to her cousin Tino ex King of Greece when you enable a right wing coup! Monarchy abolished!” ... Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said he "protested in the strongest possible terms on behalf of my party" in a letter to the Queen and called for a meeting alongside other opposition members of the Privy Council... Senior Labour MP Yvette Cooper said he was "trying to use the Queen to concentrate power in his own hands" while fellow ex-cabinet minister Ben Bradshaw said the move would "drag the monarch into an unprecedented constitutional crisis”...

--- The Queen may face more "treacherous situations" in the weeks ahead after being drawn into the "contentious and divisive" Brexit issue, an expert has said.

Mike Gordon, professor of constitutional law at the University of Liverpool, said if MPs launch a successful no-confidence vote in Boris Johnson, to challenge his proroguing of parliament, the monarch could be in a difficult position if the Tory leader refuses to resign. While, if the opposition parties manage to get legislation through parliament to stop a no-deal Brexit, the government could advise the Queen not to give it royal assent and so become law, against accepted convention...

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/labour-mp-says-the-monarchy-could-be-abolished-after-queen-approves-boris-johnsons-plan-to-suspend-parliament-094358752.html

Political opposition to Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s move to suspend Parliament is crystalizing, with protests around Britain and a petition to block the move gaining more than 1 million signatures.

Johnson’s maneuver gives his political opponents even less time to prevent a chaotic no-deal Brexit before the Oct. 31 withdrawal deadline. But the decision outraged critics and is serving as a unifying force for the disparate opposition...

https://apnews.com/38fce2910afa4af799c77362f84433b3

August 29th, 2019

The Iranian VLCC Adrian Darya 1, formerly known as Grace 1, entered Turkish territorial waters this morning and appears to be on course for the port of Mersin...



... The fully laden ship must offload part of its cargo in order to transit the Suez Canal.

Meanwhile, the Stena Impero, which has been detained in Iranian waters since July 19, likely in retaliation for the capturing of the Iranian VLCC earlier, could be freed soon.

Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif promised today to “expedite” the legal affairs with regards to the UK-flagged tanker.

https://splash247.com/controversial-iranian-vlcc-enters-turkish-waters/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/29/why-is-china-hiding-its-oil-tankers-from-us-trackers
...
... “I think the two issues have been converging for a while,” Ali Vaez, an Iran analyst with the thinktank Crisis Group said.. . “The main reason that China initially complied with the US … policy and significantly reduced oil imports from Iran was because it hoped it could be a card that bore some dividends in the trade negotiations. As soon as those talks ran into dead lock, China turned around and resumed oil imports from Iran.” Efforts to evade the sanctions have so far been limited, Vaez and other analysts watching the issue closely say the messaging is clear: China “can make or break the US maximum pressure policy”.

China’s change of tack in turn prompted fresh US sanctions in July targeting the Chinese crude oil importer Zhuhai Zhenrong, which accounts for more than 60% of China’s trade with Iran, for “violating US law by accepting crude oil”. Vaez notes, however, that access to Iranian oil is not simply a question of leverage for China, but reflects its long-term strategic aim not to be complicit in US moves it fears may lead to regime change in Iran. “China has a complex calculation regarding Iran. It is the only oil-rich country where the US does not have a foothold. From the point of view of China’s energy needs, Iran is very important,” he said. “But on the other hand China has bigger fish to fry with the US with trade negotiations and it needs to balance relations with other oil-rich countries like Saudi Arabia.”

Sanam Vakil, a senior researcher at Chatham House, believes the subterfuges currently involved reflect a desire by both China and Iran to avoid an overt confrontation over the issue, as Tehran becomes ever more “creative” about its oil exports. For Vakil, one of the key takeaways has been the Trump administration’s inability to manage the overlapping crises it has fuelled. “It’s unfortunate for US foreign policy that it has so many interconnected crises. It’s impossible for the US government to meet all of of its objectives,” he said.

Vaez echoes the sentiment, adding that Chinese imports of Iranian oil may also have discrete support in European capitals still committed to keeping the Iran nuclear deal alive despite Washington’s unilateral withdrawal. “I’m not sure the Trump administration has the bandwidth or the strategic understanding to connect all these dots. That’s why it's been its own worst enemy. Too many of its main files, including North Korea and Iran, are dependent on how the Trump administration treats China. In practice, however, this is an administration which, when offered the opportunity to fight too many fires at same time, will jump at it.” ...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/29/why-is-china-hiding-its-oil-tankers-from-us-trackers

UK, Bahrain and Australia are only countries to join US-led initiative, despite global recruitment efforts

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/us-officially-launches-joint-maritime-coalition-patrol-gulf-waters
Published date: 28 August 2019 21:26 UTC

The United States launched its joint maritime security initiative in the Gulf, with the support of Australia, the United Kingdom and Bahrain... The US says the initiative is charged with protecting merchant vessels around the Strait of Hormuz - through which a third of the world’s oil passes - following Iran's seizure of a British oil tanker in the Strait last month...

... The US announced its decision to form the protective force in July, days after Iranian forces downed a US drone near the strait... The US has been trying to recruit allies for its maritime security coalition for weeks, but only the UK, Australia and Bahrain have joined. France has declined to take part, as has Germany...

... Australia has sent a warship, surveillance aircraft and an unknown number of troops to assist, while the UK has sent at least two warships. It was unclear what kind of assistance Bahrain may provide.

... This country that self-identified so smugly as stable, tolerant and moderate, with a crown to symbolise traditions honed down the centuries, is revealed as fissile, fragile and ferociously divided. A constitution that relied on gentlemanly governments’ willingness to bow to parliament has evaporated, blown away now it’s led by a man who doesn’t give a damn for parliamentary sovereignty: taking back control is for him alone. He is ready to destroy anything that threatens his ambition.

MPs will try to stop him proroguing them. Astonishingly, this unelected prime minister has so far only spent one day in the Commons under their scrutiny, and now, after five weeks away, he will face them for just one week before banishing them for an unprecedented further five weeks. They get just one tight week to rise up and rebel, when surely they will vote in great numbers against the prorogation the Speaker calls “a constitutional outrage ... an offence against the democratic process and the rights of parliamentarians as the people’s elected representatives”. Johnson’s riposte will be, “So what?” Their vote has no legal standing...

... This aggressive provocation of parliament widens the great Brexit divide into a civil war state of mind. This is the battleground Johnson seeks – himself as roguish, freewheeling representative of the people’s will, defender of the referendum versus the Westminster establishment and the elite, as represented by MPs elected to parliament. Explosive, dangerous, unresolvable, David Cameron’s reckless, Tory-pleasing referendum cut right through the constitution, and now it lies badly damaged...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/28/proroguation-parliament-boris-johnson-brexit

When Charles I arrived in the chamber of the House of Commons in January 1642, armed guards in tow, to arrest a group of MPs for treason, it was the speaker who stood in his way. Instead of giving up the so-called traitors, speaker William Lenthall rebuked the King and reasserted the power of the Commons, telling Charles, “I have neither eyes to see nor tongue to speak in this place but as this House is pleased to direct me.”

The struggle for power between executive and legislature is not a new one. But the possibility of John Bercow taking the lead in the battle to stop Brexit offers the prospect of a modern-day stand-off, every bit as compelling as the one that took place in the months before the Civil War.

... As speaker, Bercow alone can decide what’s permitted by parliamentary precedent, and he’s shown himself willing to ignore precedent entirely and to tear up the rules when needed...

... So now will be the time for Bercow to push the nuclear button. I’m sure he will bend parliamentary procedure – or rip it up, depending on your viewpoint – to allow MPs to pass legislation requiring Johnson to seek an extension to Article 50, using a beefed-up version of the Standing Order 24 procedure, allowing for emergency debates. If there’s a prospect of revoking Article 50 before 31 October, Bercow will ensure that there is time for such a law to pass... In doing so, we would face a constitutional crisis like no other seen in modern times, with a direct stand-off between the elected government on one side, and the speaker, standing for some (but by no means all), of the House of Commons on the other...

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-parliament-supended-no-deal-queens-speech-john-bercow-a9082651.html

...The United States has told all Mediterranean ports not to assist the ship, as the US says the vessel is linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, which is deemed as a terrorist organisation in Washington. John Bolton, Donald Trump’s national security advisor, tweeted a few hours ago, “The illicit oil heading to Turkey on the Adrian Darya 1 must not be allowed off-loaded in port or at sea.”

Splash understands US military forces have been practicing taking over the VLCC...

https://splash247.com/john-bolton-reiterates-us-stance-towards-controversial-iranian-vlcc/