January 20, 2013

USA Today drops Gallup as its pollster

From the Guardian:



USA Today has decided not to renew a polling contract with Gallup that dates back to 1992. We cannot say at this point why USA Today dropped Gallup, but one cannot help but wonder whether Gallup's poor track record has something to do with it.


In case you don't remember, Gallup continuously and incorrectly showed the Republican presidential nominee, Mitt Romney, leading during the final month of the 2012 election. Its final poll had Romney leading by a point – five points off the eventual margin of his defeat. The reasons for these errors can be traced back to too tight a likely voter model and an underestimation of minority share of the electorate.



If 2012 was Gallup's only error, I might be more willing to forgive. The fact is that Gallup has only pegged the correct winner in 60% of elections since 1976 – which is not much better than a coin flip. That record drops to 25% since 2000. In four elections since 1976 in which the election margin was less than five points, Gallup has not called the right winner.



The fact is, however, Gallup's presidential polling miscues are only the tip of the iceberg. After an extended investigation by Mark Blumenthal, into Gallup's long-standing racial imbalance in its adult sample (which is supposed to reflect the adult population), Gallup claimed it was weighting its sample to the cell and telephone population. Of course, not everyone has a telephone. Gallup said it was making "judgement calls" and, regrettably, stuck by its methods.



It was only by October that Gallup revealed new, "slight" weight changes, when everyone else was showing something different than it was. The fact that Gallup altered its methods in the middle of the campaign, and long after its flaws had been pointed out, had to make even Gallup's most ardent defenders flinch. Bizarrely, Gallup decided that it should change its adult sample, but not its samples of registered or likely voters.



And yet, the most troubling accusations lobbed Gallup's way came when the justice department filed charges against it. The suit, brought in 2012, alleges that Gallup submitted $13m in false claims to the US government, by inflating the cost of polling work. These charges include milking the US mint, state department and other organizations.



USA Today, with the highest print circulation in the United States, only added to Gallup's ability to spread bad data. Gallup made USA Today look bad, as the only major news organization to be associated with a pollster that had Romney winning in the final week of the campaign.



So even if none of Gallup's faults I have mentioned here had anything to with USA Today's decision to break with Gallup, USA Today and everyone interested in good data is now better off.



I'm wishful that Gallup will straighten itself out. Either way, there are better polling companies out there at the moment.



http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jan/19/usa-today-drops-gallup-polls





Mitt Romney didn't win the presidential election – despite what Gallup predicted. Photograph: Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images

January 3, 2013

Does this challenge traditional standards of beauty? Or is it unhealthy?(Warning/Graphic pictures)

Yossi Loloi is a photographic artist.

He has recently taken pictures of plus size models.

His presentation is called "Full Beauty."


His mission statement is posted here:

In my work I portray what larger women represent to me. I focus on their fullness and femininity, as a form of protest against discrimination set by media and by today’s society.
What larger women embody to me is simply a different form of beauty. I believe we own ‘freedom of taste’ and one shouldn’t be reluctant of expressing his inclination towards it. Limiting this freedom is living in a dictatorship of esthetics.
I believe there are several ways to what is perceived as beauty, it is not measurable and has not got a standard size.
I photograph my models nude and serene, to create a comfortable, proud and constructive representation of themselves in front of the viewer



Here are some of his pictures (Warning/Graphic)



















More pictures and information here:
http://www.fullbeautyproject.com/index.php?/about/about/


His story is currently being featured on the Huffington Post.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/03/photographer-yossi-loloi-nude-obese-women_n_2387825.html#slide=1933852






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Art comes in many forms. I support what he is doing.

Everyone is aware of the ridiculous beauty standards our society demands of everyone, especially women. There is also an overwhelming pressure to be thin and young. Features of ethnic minorities are often excluded as negative beauty traits. This is wrong.

However, does this go too far in the other direction? Obesity is a serious problem. It leads to millions of deaths every year and drives up health care costs. I'm all for expanding standards of beauty, but is this too "PC" when we begin celebrating women who based on weight and BMI aren't likely to be at their healthiest?

January 2, 2013

CNN: Hillary has left the Hospital!

Bill Clinton is smiling. Hillary is walking fine and wearing dark glasses. Chelsea is smiling and looks very happy.




This is great news!

January 2, 2013

President will speak at 11:20 EST tonight!

This speech is called... "Yes I won! (Again)

January 1, 2013

Boehner is presenting the House GOP caucus with 2 options.

From CNN:

Option 1: First Boehner will see if he has 218 votes for the Senate bill with an add on for as of yet unspecified spending cuts. If he does no have the votes he will move to option 2: A straight up or down vote in the house!


My take: This is fun to watch. The tea party and the GOP are breaking up. Obama is dividing and conquering the GOP.


The House GOP has been beaten.

January 1, 2013

MSNBC: Under the deal spending cuts and tax increases MUST HAVE a ratio of 1 to 1

So much for this:





Any cuts the GOP wants, must have increased tax revenue to pay for it. 1 to 1.

January 1, 2013

I'm sorry, but shouldn't someone from MSNBC actually be working tonight?

My god, I know its New Year's eve, but this is suppose to be "The Place for Politics!" Did they not know that tonight could be an important political night!


Not only is the first team not there. But the second team is not there either! Heck, the third team is not there!

Heck, not even Melissa Harris Perry and Erza Klein could bother to work tonight!


There were lots of people that actually went to work today.

This drives me crazy! I don't care what holiday it is. Somebody from MSNBC should be there tonight!

January 1, 2013

MSNBC: Fiscal Cliff deal has been reached between Senate and White House

Deal parameters:

39.6% tax rates on income over 400,000 a year for single filers. 450,000 per year for joint filers.

Cap gains on income above 400/450K increases to 20% (from 15%)

Unemployment benefits are saved

Sequester is held off for 2 months.

Nancy Pelosi has agreed to the deal.

More to follow.