April 21, 2020

Yes, I don't think this will save the economy.

What seems to be happening is that responsibility for what is happening is being so haphazardly delegated that some people will be confused about who to blame.

W.H.O.
China
CDC and FDA
Governors
Obama
(It's a long list, but the governors are being set up and it's amazing to me some of them are willing participants and don't see the end-game here.)

April 21, 2020

This might be the intention but I doubt it will work.

Soon, almost everyone will know somebody or know somebody who knows somebody who died or is forever changed by contracting this virus, or knows a doctor or medical professional who is thoroughly disgusted by what is being allowed to happen, not to mention that this virus will hit red states and Fox Newsers especially hard.

This idea that the economy can be resurrected because Trump says so is a notion I don't accept. A hundred other countries have a say in the matter. Oil, supply lines and trade routes, and supply and demand, also have a say in the matter.

Lastly, at the end of the day, individuals have to decide, "Is it worth it to go out today? Is it worth it to get a Big Mac, see a baseball game, go to a party?" I don't know too many people who will be hungering for risk right now.

April 21, 2020

Interesting

Remember in late February those discussions about there being both an L-Type and an S-Type, with the L-Type being more virulent? Some prominent scientists really took issue with that, but it did seem interesting at the time. Now, maybe there's more evidence pointing to multiple strains.

Coronavirus: aggressive ‘L type’ strain affecting 70 per cent of cases
Researchers say that the discovery of two SARS-CoV2 strains "strongly support an urgent need for further immediate, comprehensive studies".
https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/coronavirus-aggressive-l-type-strain-affecting-70-per-cent-of-cases/

Coronavirus: Are there two strains and is one more deadly?

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/#ixzz6KGsw91or

April 21, 2020

Good post, very difficult to find fault with it.

But this one part:

There are a ton of unknowables buried in that simple sentence. Our economy will try to open, but what about all the economies we depend upon and do business with? What about oil demand, shipping routes and supply lines? Will they just go back to normal because Trump says they should?

Is there actually 'pent up demand' or is that a Mnuchin fantasy that will be outweighed by individual fear of contracting the virus?

It's early in this story, but I still know an awful lot of people who have no intention of resuming normal activities. Stores may open, restaurants may open, the economy may open, but then what? What about international trade, where many countries won't "open." Because there's so much more to the economy than stores and restaurants.

An economist yesterday on Chris Hayes said the negative price of oil was a "canary in the coal mine" that regardless of the intent of states and nations, the economy was in no position to recover. Every time economies would mount a recovery, it would be depressed by setbacks. So it's hard to tell what will actually happen, even though your scenario seems credible.

April 9, 2020

Speculating...

I think what's going to end up happening is that a company like Amazon (or Walgreen/Walmart/Google) is going to get into the "overnight testing" business, where you or I can order, say, three coronavirus tests, submit a sample, use their handy, easy return shipping option, and obtain the results online in two days or so. (Like a faster version of 23 and Me DNA testing).

Another possibility might be a do it yourself home kit, where you can actually perform it right at home and get the results in a matter of minutes (my preference). They won't be perfect, so I would probably order three and see if they all agreed. I don't know when that's coming, but it's the best solution I can think of.

Because of economies of scale and demand, I think it will be relatively inexpensive.

April 7, 2020

I think the poster is correct.

We are getting half the truth. I've heard doctors asked point-blank about the contradiction of masks protecting others but not the wearer and they side-step it and talk about the shortage of masks for medical professionals.

I think what people want to know is the physics of a mask that protects people six feet away from the wearer, but not the person wearing the mask from people six feet away. That would sure be a dumb mask to mass-produce for medical professionals.

April 7, 2020

Totally agree.

This morning I gave a mask to my sister for her doctor's appointment tomorrow for a matter unrelated to COVID-19. She worked as a physician's assistant, so she knows a lot of this, but I just told her to read the fitting instructions and restrain herself from adjusting the mask, and to keep doing all the things she's been doing like washing her hands frequently, social distancing--and not to take the mask for granted as it certainly doesn't guarantee you can't get infected. She has rheumatoid arthritis and is at some risk of developing complications if she contracts this virus.

A mask optimizes one's chances, and since nobody in our government is looking out for us, our health is our personal responsibility. It's possible that wearing a mask means one less person calling 911, occupying an ICU, taking up a precious ventilator. IMO that's just being a good (and intelligent) citizen and trying not to become part of the problem of overfilled hospitals.

Early on I earnestly repeated some of those lies here, such as "the only benefit of wearing a mask is that it stops you from touching your face." We've heard a few lies now. Just reflecting for even a few seconds, and looking a the relative success of other countries where mask-wearing was required, should be enough to raise questions.

April 2, 2020

By the way, for the first week or so I was one of those well meaning and earnest

people repeating those nonsensical tropes about masks until I sat down and thought about it carefully for about fifteen seconds and realized it was a load of crap. Of course masks help you whether you're infected or trying not to get infected. It's worked in other countries, why wouldn't it work in the United States?

So I love your post. Thank you.

April 2, 2020

The way I look at it, wearing an N95 mask plus observing social distancing and hand washing

is an act of kindness to the first responders, because that is one less person who will need an ambulance ride, intubation and a ventilator. It's doing your part not to be part of the problem.

Also, I didn't "take" my masks from anybody. They've been in my emergency kit for years because I live in an area that is prone to wildfires. Paid one dollar per mask.