April 22, 2020

Maybe.

I was wondering, could the virus either be deactivating something in the body that prevents clotting, or contributing something that causes the clotting?

Is there something that is like the opposite of Vitamin K (which helps clotting) in the body that could be inactivated by the virus?

Just wondering aloud...

April 22, 2020

Chilling, bizarre.

April 22, 2020

It goes without saying that if NK is trying to cover up the fact that

Kim Jong Un is ailing, any subordinate (or perhaps his sister) could have been asked to tweet this.

But he could also be fine and hiding to avoid the virus.

I don't actually believe the heart story. I think it's more likely he caught the virus, but because he's been saying "There are no COVID cases in North Korea" it would simply be too embarrassing to admit that, so it's a cover story of a cover story.

April 22, 2020

Cornyn is a disaster. This is actually the fourth or fifth (small) study

to show no benefit (but the first to show actual harm).

China (Journal of Zhejiang University study)
France (France's second study after the first paper was retracted)
Brazil EDIT: study halted after deaths
VA study

I think I'm missing another one, perhaps a study in the northeast US.

April 22, 2020

This is fascinating:

My argument (or one of my arguments) against the idea Trump can "fix the economy" is exactly that you can't bribe enough people to take stupid risks. I also severely question the premise of "pent up demand." Just the opposite could happen, where people learn that they can do without many of the things they thought were essentials--and that it's simple, less expensive, healthier, less of a hassle and rather enjoyable.

April 22, 2020

Razzle dazzle

April 21, 2020

Yes, I don't think this will save the economy.

What seems to be happening is that responsibility for what is happening is being so haphazardly delegated that some people will be confused about who to blame.

W.H.O.
China
CDC and FDA
Governors
Obama
(It's a long list, but the governors are being set up and it's amazing to me some of them are willing participants and don't see the end-game here.)

April 21, 2020

This might be the intention but I doubt it will work.

Soon, almost everyone will know somebody or know somebody who knows somebody who died or is forever changed by contracting this virus, or knows a doctor or medical professional who is thoroughly disgusted by what is being allowed to happen, not to mention that this virus will hit red states and Fox Newsers especially hard.

This idea that the economy can be resurrected because Trump says so is a notion I don't accept. A hundred other countries have a say in the matter. Oil, supply lines and trade routes, and supply and demand, also have a say in the matter.

Lastly, at the end of the day, individuals have to decide, "Is it worth it to go out today? Is it worth it to get a Big Mac, see a baseball game, go to a party?" I don't know too many people who will be hungering for risk right now.

April 21, 2020

Interesting

Remember in late February those discussions about there being both an L-Type and an S-Type, with the L-Type being more virulent? Some prominent scientists really took issue with that, but it did seem interesting at the time. Now, maybe there's more evidence pointing to multiple strains.

Coronavirus: aggressive ‘L type’ strain affecting 70 per cent of cases
Researchers say that the discovery of two SARS-CoV2 strains "strongly support an urgent need for further immediate, comprehensive studies".
https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/coronavirus-aggressive-l-type-strain-affecting-70-per-cent-of-cases/

Coronavirus: Are there two strains and is one more deadly?

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/#ixzz6KGsw91or

April 21, 2020

Good post, very difficult to find fault with it.

But this one part:

There are a ton of unknowables buried in that simple sentence. Our economy will try to open, but what about all the economies we depend upon and do business with? What about oil demand, shipping routes and supply lines? Will they just go back to normal because Trump says they should?

Is there actually 'pent up demand' or is that a Mnuchin fantasy that will be outweighed by individual fear of contracting the virus?

It's early in this story, but I still know an awful lot of people who have no intention of resuming normal activities. Stores may open, restaurants may open, the economy may open, but then what? What about international trade, where many countries won't "open." Because there's so much more to the economy than stores and restaurants.

An economist yesterday on Chris Hayes said the negative price of oil was a "canary in the coal mine" that regardless of the intent of states and nations, the economy was in no position to recover. Every time economies would mount a recovery, it would be depressed by setbacks. So it's hard to tell what will actually happen, even though your scenario seems credible.