TomCADem
TomCADem's JournalThe Spread of Covid-19: Trump States vs. Clinton States - Trumpism Is Deadly
Once again, Trump's biggest supporters are sometimes his biggest victims:
https://aneconomicsense.org/2020/06/25/the-spread-of-covid-19-trump-states-vs-clinton-states/
One way to look at this is to group the states according to who won there in 2016: Trump or Clinton. This divides the country roughly in half, between more liberal and more conservative areas. The chart above shows what then results for daily new confirmed cases (on a 7-day moving average).
The division is stark. The states won by Clinton (which included New York, New Jersey, the Northeast, Illinois, California, and Washington) were exposed early to Covid-19. These states are generally more highly urbanized and there is more international travel by both residents and visitors. This left them especially vulnerable as the virus that causes Covid-19 started to spread (first with little knowledge of how fast it was spreading, due to blunders in rolling out the necessary testing program in February and into much of March). But after peaking in April, these states brought down the daily number of new cases by over 60%, although with a partial and still limited reversal in the past week.
The pattern in the Trump states is quite different. Confirmed cases rose in the period leading up to April (in part as testing only became broadly available then), but then leveled off in these states through essentially all of April and May. Furthermore, the numbers leveled off at roughly 10,000 cases a day, or less than half the 21,000 cases per day seen in the Clinton states at their peak. The Trump states are often more rural, and there is less international travel (by both residents and visitors), so the lower numbers there were taken by some as indicating they were less vulnerable to this infectious disease.
Martin Luther King Explains Why Trump's Biggest Victim Is Actually His Own Base
I know there is a lot of anger at the support that Trump continues to draw from a diminishing minority of the U.S. population. Although Tump's support has diminished due in large part to his clear incompetence, Trump continues to draw support from a rabid base that he caters to with increasingly racist appeals.
The question is why does this work? Even if a person is a racist, why would they support someone who has mishandled a pandemic and eagerly acts against U.S. interests in favor of his own?
The answer is that Trump appeals to what MLK would call a Trump supporter's drum major instinct, the desire "to be out front, a desire to lead the parade, a desire to be first." Trump is not offering health care. Trump is not offering economic security. What Trump is offering is the validation that his supporters are innately superior to everyone else of a different race or background. Even better, Trump offers a scapegoat that America's ills are caused by people who not-white whether they are Mexican immigrants, BLM protesters, educated professional women, or Asians who are accused of spreading COVID-19.
Of course, as Germany experience, if you continue to blame all your problems on other people. this ultimately leads to a "final solution" of genocide to eliminate other people. For example, the Nazis did not originally advocate for the genocide of Jews. Instead. the Nazis originally pushed for the resettlement and relocation of Jews out of Europe.
This is why we need to combat Trump and his message of hate and blame. We need to educate, including his own supporters, that Trump's message of hate not only oppresses the objects of the hate, but it serves to oppress his own supporters who are losing their jobs and losing their lives blinded by Trump's message that they are members of some super race and that they need to protect their way of life, which is built around systemic racism.
https://kinginstitute.stanford.edu/king-papers/documents/drum-major-instinct-sermon-delivered-ebenezer-baptist-church
Now the other thing is, that it leads to tragicand we've seen it happen so oftentragic race prejudice. Many who have written about this problemLillian Smith used to say it beautifully in some of her books. And she would say it to the point of getting men and women to see the source of the problem. Do you know that a lot of the race problem grows out of the drum major instinct? A need that some people have to feel superior. A need that some people have to feel that they are first, and to feel that their white skin ordained them to be first. (Make it plain, today, cause Im against it, so help me God) And they have said over and over again in ways that we see with our own eyes. In fact, not too long ago, a man down in Mississippi said that God was a charter member of the White Citizens Council. And so God being the charter member means that everybody who's in that has a kind of divinity, a kind of superiority. And think of what has happened in history as a result of this perverted use of the drum major instinct. It has led to the most tragic prejudice, the most tragic expressions of man's inhumanity to man.
The other day I was saying, I always try to do a little converting when I'm in jail. And when we were in jail in Birmingham the other day, the white wardens and all enjoyed coming around the cell to talk about the race problem. And they were showing us where we were so wrong demonstrating. And they were showing us where segregation was so right. And they were showing us where intermarriage was so wrong. So I would get to preaching, and we would get to talkingcalmly, because they wanted to talk about it. And then we got down one day to the pointthat was the second or third dayto talk about where they lived, and how much they were earning. And when those brothers told me what they were earning, I said, "Now, you know what? You ought to be marching with us. [laughter] You're just as poor as Negroes." And I said, "You are put in the position of supporting your oppressor, because through prejudice and blindness, you fail to see that the same forces that oppress Negroes in American society oppress poor white people. (Yes) And all you are living on is the satisfaction of your skin being white, and the drum major instinct of thinking that you are somebody big because you are white. And you're so poor you can't send your children to school. You ought to be out here marching with every one of us every time we have a march."
Now that's a fact. That the poor white has been put into this position, where through blindness and prejudice, (Make it plain) he is forced to support his oppressors. And the only thing he has going for him is the false feeling that hes superior because his skin is whiteand can't hardly eat and make his ends meet week in and week out. (Amen)
'We just want to be safe': Hate crimes, harassment of Asian Americans rise amid coronavirus pandemic
If it is not Trump calling BLM protesters terrorists or scapegoating Latino Americans for taking jobs, it is inciting hate of Asian Americans for COVID-19.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/05/20/coronavirus-hate-crimes-against-asian-americans-continue-rise/5212123002/
In neighboring Santa Clara County, a Vietnamese couple was threatened while in a grocery store. Officials said the man turned his hand into the shape of a gun.
In New York City, people of Asian descent were assaulted, kicked, pushed and accosted on subway trains. The theme: This virus is your fault.
People of Asian descent have reported being shunned, verbally abused, name-called, coughed and spat on, even physically assaulted as the coronavirus pandemic continues to upend American life. As the political rhetoric blaming China for the pandemic escalates, law enforcement officials and human rights advocates have seen an increasing number of hate crimes and incidents of harassment and discrimination against Asian Americans.
Victims of anti-Latino hate crimes soar in U.S.: FBI report
I think the media is missing that a lot of people are not just protesting the death of George Floyd specifically, but that it is more broadly directed towards Trump's efforts to divide us. For example, Trump has repeatedly attacked latino immigrants, which has resulted in a significant rise in hate crimes directed toward latinos during his Presidency.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hatecrimes-report/victims-of-anti-latino-hate-crimes-soar-in-us-fbi-report-idUSKBN1XM2OQ
The data coincides with an ongoing debate over U.S. President Donald Trumps hardline immigration policies and follows the August mass shooting at a Walmart in El Paso, Texas, when the suspected gunman told police he was targeting Mexicans.
Were seeing the swapping of one derided group in the social-political arena for another, said Brian Levin, director of the Center for the Study of Hate and Extremism at California State University, San Bernardino. Attacks against Muslims peaked around 2016 when terrorism was the concern. Now immigration is the No. 1 issue and Latinos are being targeted.
There were 671 victims in anti-Latino or Hispanic incidents in 2018, compared with 552 the year before, the FBI said in its annual Hate Crime Statistics report.
Malcolm X's "The Ballot or the Bullet" Still Resonates in Today's Political Climate
The year's of Republican efforts aimed a voter suppression along with their celebration of police brutality brings to mind the words of Malcolm X. This is why Democrats need to make voter access a key issue in their platform, particularly as Republicans oppose efforts to ensure that voters can vote by mail in the midst of a pandemic.
https://www.teenvogue.com/story/malcolm-xs-the-ballot-or-the-bullet-still-resonates-today
Black activists believed that the segregationist governor of Alabama, George Wallace, deserved some blame for the little girls deaths, as just one week before the bombing he told a New York Times reporter that the country needed a few first-class funerals suggesting that was the solution to stopping integration. At the time of Malcolms speech, George Wallace was running against Lyndon Johnson in the Democratic primary.
Malcolms speech conveyed the pain and rage the Black community was feeling, pairing it with an urgent warning that escalated the community's demand for enfranchisement. It wasn't just a request for justice; it was a call for revolution. This is why I say it's the ballot or the bullet. It's liberty or it's death. It's freedom for everybody or freedom for nobody . A revolution is bloody, but America is in a unique position. She's the only country in history in the position actually to become involved in a bloodless revolution . All she's got to do is give the Black man in this country everything that's due him. Everything.
In his speech, Malcolm continually stressed the importance of the 1964 election as the future of the Civil Rights Act hung in the balance between President Johnson, who eventually won the Democratic nomination, and Barry Goldwater, the Republican presidential candidate who opposed the legislation. For Black folks, the 2020 election is just as critical of a year as 1964 was, as preventing the reelection of Donald Trump and his continued dismantling of facets of that very same Civil Rights Act takes center stage.
Simulating an epidemic (The Underlying Math Behind The Models)
This video provides a nice visual explanation of the math behind the models and shows how data is used to estimate the spread of diseases, as well as how different preventative measures are factored into such models.
Should Republicans Be Sanctioned for Doubling Down on China's Failures?
There is a great deal of irony with Republicans threatening a series of sanctions against China based on its three week delay in identifying COVID-19 as a possible new disease on December 31st and declaring a widely publicized lockdown in Wuhan on January 23rd. Three weeks.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-pandemic-timeline-history-major-events-2020-3
Based on this three week delay, you have Republicans clamoring for punishing China for this delay and minimizing the threat of COVID-19. Okay, lets go with this. Presumably by January 23rd at the latest, the Trump administration was aware that the entire Wuhan province had been placed in quarantine. Heck, on January 27th, Joe Biden saw the risk of a pandemic and wrote an editorial describing this risk:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/01/27/coronavirus-donald-trump-made-us-less-prepared-joe-biden-column/4581710002/
Trumps demonstrated failures of judgment and his repeated rejection of science make him the worst possible person to lead our country through a global health challenge.
The outbreak of a new coronavirus, which has already infected more than 2,700 people and killed over 80 in China, will get worse before it gets better. Cases have been confirmed in a dozen countries, with at least five in the United States. There will likely be more.
Yet, aside from a few travel bans with broad exceptions for returning Americans, the Trump administration did nothing to prepare and minimized the threat with Trump saying that it would just go away. Indeed, it is not until March 13, three months after the emergence of COVID-19, that Trump declares a National Emergency nearly a week after Italy had to declare a nationwide lockdown.
Finally, even as other developed countries have been able to implement widespread testing, Republicans are now clamoring to re-open the U.S. even as death rates continue to escalate in parts of the country and the number of deaths grows past 60,000.
So, if China should get serious sanctions for three weeks, shouldn't Trump and Republicans get sanctions for three months of delays, denials and cover-ups?
TIME: Why You Still Can't Get a Vaccine for HIV
It is interesting that the Trump administration is loudly announcing that they will be manufacturing a yet to be developed COVID-19 vaccine in January 2021. Heck, while they are at it, why not announced a preventative vaccine for HIV in January 2021, as well?
https://time.com/4583503/why-you-still-cant-get-an-hiv-vaccine/
But a vaccine could significantly taper infections worldwide. Even a moderately effective vaccine would significantly decrease the burden of HIV disease over time, said Fauci in a statement.
So why are HIV vaccines so elusive?
HIV behaves unlike most other viruses in some important ways. Usually, when a person is infected with a virus, their immune system creates antibodies that target the bug. Thats usually the starting point for researchers, who work to develop drugs that can imitate that process (but without causing the recipient to develop a full blown reaction to the virus). Whats tricky about HIV, however, is that when a person is infected with the virus, that same process of developing antibodies isnt triggered.
Atlantic (2018) - The Next Plague Is Coming. Is America Ready? - Prescient
It is really interesting how this articles describes Trump's attacks on how President Obama responded to Ebola and other outbreaks, and how Trump dismantled the pandemic response infrastucture that was in place, and how the Trump administration actually responded to the outbreak consistent with Trump's early statements saying that we should just implement a travel ban. So, even back in 2018, Trump's anticipated response was pretty clear.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/07/when-the-next-plague-hits/561734/
Other parts of Trumps administration that will prove crucial during an epidemic have operated like an Etch A Sketch. During the nine months I spent working on this story, Tom Price resigned as secretary of health and human services after using taxpayer money to fund charter flights (although his replacement, Alex Azar, is arguably better prepared, having dealt with anthrax, flu, and sars during the Bush years). Brenda Fitzgerald stepped down as CDC director after it became known that she had bought stock in tobacco companies; her replacement, Robert Redfield, has a long track record studying HIV, but relatively little public-health experience.
Rear Admiral Tim Ziemer, a veteran malaria fighter, was appointed to the National Security Council, in part to oversee the development of the White Houses forthcoming biosecurity strategy. When I met Ziemer at the White House in February, he hadnt spoken with the president, but said pandemic preparedness was a priority for the administration. He left in May.
Organizing a federal response to an emerging pandemic is harder than one might think. The largely successful U.S. response to Ebola in 2014 benefited from the special appointment of an Ebola czarKlainto help coordinate the many agencies that face unclear responsibilities. In 2016, when Obama asked for $1.9 billion to fight Zika, Congress devolved into partisan squabbling. Republicans wanted to keep the funds away from clinics that worked with Planned Parenthood, and Democrats opposed the restriction. It took more than seven months to appropriate $1.1 billion; by then, the CDC and NIH had been forced to divert funds meant to deal with flu, HIV, and the next Ebola.
Daily Beast: Kremlin Media Still Like Bernie, 'Cause They Love Trump
Is Bernie repeatedly voting in support of Russia, because he is expecting continued support for his efforts to disrupt the Democratic primaries or is it because he truly supports Russia against American interests? Which is it? It is just amazing how consistent Bernie is in voting, or skipping, votes in order to benefit Russia.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-media-still-like-bernie-sanders-cause-they-love-trump
In 2018, Russian state media included Bernie Sanders in its line-up of Russias friends, alongside Dennis Kucinich, Dana Rohrabacher, Ron Paul, Rand Paul and Mike Flynn. Sanders made the list because in 2012 he voted against the Magnitsky Act, a piece of legislation seeking to impose sanctions for the Russian governments extrajudicial killings, torture, or other human rights violations committed against individuals seeking to promote human rights or to expose illegal activity carried out by officials of the government of the Russian Federation.
In 2017, Senator Sanders voted against legislation that imposed sanctions against North Korea, Iran and Russia. The bill was passed by Congress in response to Russia's interference in the 2016 US election, as well as its human rights violations, annexation of Crimea, and military operations in eastern Ukraine.
In 2019, Bernie Sanders was the sole senator to miss the vote on a bill that would prevent the U.S. Treasury Department from rolling back sanctions on three companies owned by Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, a close ally of Vladimir Putin. Senator Sanders skipped the vote in order to meet with former staff members who conveyed their dismay over the alleged mistreatment of women during his 2016 campaign.
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