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TomCADem's Journal
TomCADem's Journal
March 21, 2020

Trump Doubled Double On China's COVID-19 Mistakes

The first case of COVID-19 appeared in December 2019, though it was not identified as new virus until December 27th. On December 31st China notifies the WHO of the new disease.

China then denies that the COVID-19 is spreading or that there are new cases. On January 11, China records its first death. On January 13th, the first COVID-19 case is reported outside of China in Thailand. It is not until January 20 that China confirms human-to-human transmission of the virus, rather than the virus being transmitted from livestock.

On January 21, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirms the first COVID-19 case in the United States and China newspapers report on the coronavirus epidemic. On January 23, about three weeks after the discovery of the first case of COVID-19, Wuhan and three other Chinese cities are put on lockdown. So, it took about three weeks from initial discovery and denial for China to begin steps to quarantine and stop the spread of the virus.


Timeline: The early days of China's coronavirus outbreak and cover-up

Axios has compiled a timeline of the earliest weeks of the coronavirus outbreak in China, highlighting when the cover-up started and ended — and showing how, during that time, the virus already started spreading around the world, including to the United States.

Why it matters: A study published in March indicated that if Chinese authorities had acted three weeks earlier than they did, the number of coronavirus cases could have been reduced by 95% and its geographic spread limited.

This timeline, compiled from information reported by the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, the South China Morning Post and other sources, shows that China's cover-up and the delay in serious measures to contain the virus lasted about three weeks.

* * *
The bottom line: China is now trying to create a narrative that it's an example of how to handle this crisis when in fact its early actions led to the virus spreading around the globe.

So, China should be faulted for its denial of the problem for about three weeks. You would think that the Trump administration would learn from China's mistakes. It didn't. Instead, despite having a head start since the U.S. knew from the beginning that COVID-19 was a new disease, Trump doubled down on China's denials.

Again, on January 21, the U.S. confirmed its first COVID-19 case. However, rather than take aggressive steps to try to stop the spread disease internationally, or prepare the U.S. domestically, Trump simply banned travel and emulated China's early steps of denying any risk to the U.S. as seen below. Worse, there reports are that the Trump administration was reluctant to begin widespread testing for fear of increasing the number of affected U.S. citizens. Publicly, Trump repeatedly minimized the potential impact of the COVID-19 from January 22nd until March 10th when he was still insisting that COVID-19 would just "go away."

Three days later, on March 13th, after the DOW began to tank, Trump made his National Emergency Declaration, over ten weeks after the COVID-19 was reported to the WHO on December 31st and over seven weeks after the first U.S. case. To put this into further perspective, South Korea discovered its first case at about the same time as the U.S.


March 19, 2020

Obama/Biden vs Trump Response to Ebola Outbreaks - Coronavirus Lessons

While Trump does his best to distract from the ineptitude and policy choices that helped lead to the current health crisis, it helpful to see the difference in approach taken by President Obama/VP Biden to Ebola while it was still raging in African in 2014 versus Trump's approach of closing the borders, ignoring the crisis, and hoping it goes away. Can you imagine if Trump was President during the original Ebola outbreak when a vaccine had yet to be developed? He would probably just close the border, call it the Africa virus, then accuse anyone for asking him to do more, as trying to impeach him again.

In 2014-15, an outbreak of Ebola hit West Africa. President Obama and VP Biden led an aggressive U.S. response on the ground in Africa, rather than simply closing the borders. The U.S. lead the development of vaccine. A new Ebola crisis has hit Africa, but Trump is taking a far more hands off approach.


The 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic was the first and largest epidemic of its kind, with widespread urban transmission and a massive death count of more than 11,300 people in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. The epidemic took a devastating toll on the people of West Africa. Ending it took an extraordinary international effort in which the U.S. government played a major role.

CDC’s response was directed simultaneously at controlling the epidemic in West Africa and strengthening preparedness for Ebola in the United States. The new MMWR Ebola special supplement primarily focuses on the agency’s work during the first year and a half of the response. CDC activated its Emergency Operations Center (EOC) for the Ebola response on July 9, 2014. On August 5, 2014, CDC elevated the EOC to a Level 1 activation, its highest level. On March 31, 2016, CDC officially deactivated the EOC for the 2014-2016 Ebola response.

“The world came together in an unprecedented way—nations, organizations, and individuals—to respond to this horrible epidemic,” said Inger Damon, M.D., Ph.D., who served as incident manager for the CDC Ebola response during its first eight months. “CDC staff performed heroically and were an integral part of the U.S. all-government response, which involved many other agencies and branches of government.”

By the end of the CDC 2014-2016 Ebola response on March 31, 2016, more than 3,700 CDC staff, including all 158 Epidemic Intelligence Service Officers, had participated in international or domestic response efforts. There were 2,292 total deployments to Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone and 3,544 total deployments overall (domestic and international) to support the response. Approximately 1,558 CDC responders have deployed to Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone since the start of the response in July 2014 to the close of the response at the end of March 2016 – including 454 responders with repeat deployments. Even after the deactivation of the CDC 2014-2016 Ebola response, CDC continues its work to better understand and combat the Ebola virus and to assist Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone in the aftermath of the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic; currently, CDC staff remain in CDC country offices in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone to help support the Global Health Security Agenda.

Now, even though Trump benefits from some of the the infrastructure of President Obama's response such as the vaccine, Trump's inaction is helping a second outbreak grow unabated in Africa, so hopefully those cases don't spill over to the U.S., but at least there is a vaccine. Unfortunately, Trump took the same negligent approach to a disease for which there is no vaccine, the coronavirus, rather than committing U.S. resources to fighting the disease or developing a vaccine before it even hits U.S. shores.


There are several important differences between the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC and the West African outbreak of 2014. First, unlike the impacted countries in West Africa, the DRC has previous experience with Ebola. Doctors and health officials have handled this before, and they have more established protocols in place for treating infected patients, managing the appropriate services, and educating the public.

Second, WHO’s response is far more effective now than it was in 2014. WHO seems to have learned important lessons – it has been deeply engaged on the front lines, supporting the DRC Ministry of Health, and transparently sharing data and its approach with the global public. WHO recently labeled the outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), a legal term that allows for a more concerted international response, including bolstering of funds needed to fight the outbreak. There have only been four PHEIC declarations in history, so such a declaration usually signals a particularly dangerous outbreak that requires a global response.

Finally, since the 2014 outbreak, two new vaccines have been developed that have been instrumental to containing the spread of the virus. The Merck vaccine has been widely deployed by WHO in an effort to halt the further spread of Ebola according to a widely used strategy known as “ring vaccination,” which involves vaccinating all those who potentially have had contact with an infected person and all the contacts of those people as well. The Merck vaccine has near 100 percent efficacy, having been tested in a large clinical trial (although it has not yet been licensed). The second vaccine, developed by Johnson and Johnson (J&J), is being tested among those who are not at immediate risk.

* * *

In 2014, President Obama worked closely with Congress to allocate $6 billion in emergency aid – and, just as importantly, engage the full force of the U.S. military to tackle the epidemic. Although the 2014 outbreak was much larger, the Trump Administration’s current response is inadequate for the size of the problem. While the U.S. is sending some health personnel, they are being kept far from the front lines of the outbreak. And there are mixed signals coming from the Administration. While USAID, for instance, just pledged more money to support the response to the current outbreak, the White House continues to propose budget cuts that would weaken funding for infectious diseases and global health systems.

March 15, 2020

Joe Biden Can Be the Next Lyndon Johnson In Terms of Passing Landmark Legislation

Before he was President, Lyndon Johnson was a southern democrat who espoused moderate views. He was known as a master deal maker, and no one would have imagined that major bills like the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Food Stamp Act of 1964, the Housing and Urban Development Act of 1965; and the Social Security Amendments of 1965. Put another way, before he was President, Lyndon Johnson was hardly considered a liberal idealogue. What he knew how to do was pass legislation as a former Democratic Senate Leader.

Between Biden and Sanders, Joe Biden is the most similar to Lyndon Johnson. Biden, who served 36 years in the Senate before leaving to join Obama’s administration, authored 20 meaningful bills during his time in the Senate. His final two years in office, when he chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, were notably active: In those two years, seven Biden-authored bills were signed into law. Of course, as a Vice-President, Biden was invaluable in the passage of the ACA.

In contrast, while Bernie introduced 324 bills, about three became law. This includes a bill naming a post office in Vermont and two more while Democrats had control (one naming another Vermont post office and another increasing veterans’ disability compensation). Bernie has been loud and outspoken and has made a career of attacking (and alienating) Democrats. In this sense, Bernie is like George McGovern who failed miserably at uniting the Democratic party. In the weeks leading to Super Tuesday, Bernie went all-in attacking the, "Democratic establishment," which alienated many Democrats and contributed to his huge losses.

The ability to develop coalitions is also on display in terms of the ability to get former rivals to endorse them. Biden is way ahead of Bernie on this metric with Bernie Sanders not even able to get his former protege and fellow Sanders Institute founder, Tulsi Gabbard, to endorse him.

I think a common mistake folks have is that they believe that the most ideologically rigid and vocal candidate will be the most effective. This is not true. For all of his faults, Lyndon Johnson was a master at developing the relationships to pass major liberal legislation despite the fact that he was hardly seen as an ideologue prior to his Presidency.

Ironically, if Bernie Sanders really wants to pass meaningful healthcare reform, it would be far better if Joe Biden were President and not him.

March 13, 2020

How Trump's Self-Interested Delay of Coronavirus Testing Worsened the Crisis and Economy

NPR and Politico reported about how the Trump administration did not want to aggressive testing, because the President made clear that lower numbers on the coronavirus would be better for his reelection:


But at the same time, Secretary Azar has not always given the president the worst-case scenario of what could happen. My understanding is he did not push to do aggressive additional testing in recent weeks, and that's partly because more testing might have led to more cases being discovered of coronavirus outbreak, and the president had made clear - the lower the numbers on coronavirus, the better for the president, the better for his potential reelection this fall.

Meanwhile, Seema Verma, since being added to the team, has announced all kinds of actions that could be seen as cracking down on the problem - dispatching a team of investigators to Washington state, where there has been a major outbreak of corona virus, predominantly in local nursing homes. But I've talked to officials who say that Seema Verma, in an effort to show that she's cracking down, may actually be creating more problems by having her investigators demanding paperwork, demanding answers at a moment when these nursing home officials are just trying to provide basic patient care to people who have been infected by coronavirus.

However, by delaying testing, Trump not only has put millions of people in jeopardy, but now the U.S. has to impose broad mass quarantines due to the lack of accurate information, which will put the country on the path to a recession. For example, given easy testing access in South Korea, which was hit by the disease at about the same time at Italy, only a few thousand are quarantined and 67 people died. However, in Italy, millions are locked down and more than 1,000 people have died from the coronavirus.

At this time, Trump has put the U.S. on the path to being just 10 days behind Italy in terms trajectory all because he did not want to see his numbers rise. Heck, Trump has even admitted on TV that his desire to keep numbers artificially low has driven his decision making on the coronavirus:


(My experts) would like to have the people come off. I’d rather have the people stay, but I’d go with them. I told them to make the final decision. I would rather—because I like the numbers being where they are. I don’t need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn’t our fault.
March 13, 2020

Bernie's Super Secret Plan To Help Democrats By Debating Biden!

We know that Biden should start preparing to campaign against Trump in the General Election. So, being the longtime, loyal Democrat that Bernie is, it turns out that Saturday's debate is just the culmination of a collaborative effort by Bernie and Biden to prepare Biden for the general election.

You see, Bernie has been working long and hard, decades in fact, to engage in a bit of cosplay to prepare Biden for someone like Trump. This is why Bernie has done the following in order to properly prepare Biden:

1. Act like a person who has pushed racist, right wing talking points scapegoating immigrants and calling efforts at immigration reform "open borders" or "amnesty" such as in the following appearance on Lou Dobbs:

Bernie's appearance on anti-amnesty special with Lou Dobbs will really help Biden hone his skill in blowing up right wing talking points scapegoating immigrants for unemployment, disease, crime, etc.

2. Act like a hypocrite who has long history of engaging in nepotism and sponsoring foundations and businesses that have financially benefited his family. This is why Bernie has denounced dark money, but has surrogates running SuperPACs like Our Revolution. Likewise, attack opponents for running private foundations, then (you guessed it), run a private foundation to advance your candidacy, the Sanders Institute, then pay your son-in-law a six figure salary even if has no experience running private foundations. This should help Biden get some practice attacking Trump for such foundations. Way to go Bernie!

3. Have a long history of criticizing the need for NATO. Bernie has denounced NATO as being a waste of money and even floated the idea of admitting Russia into NATO even though its purpose is to protect Europe from Russian aggression. This will give Biden a chance to emphasize the importance of standing by our allies in times of crisis like the current Coronavirus pandemic, rather than abandoning them and cozying up to Russia. Once again, Bernie's decades long playacting has been superb.

4. Attack the media and complain about coverage as being biased against him. This cosplay as a narcissist is uncanny. When he does not get coverage, its the Bernie Blackout! When he gets mild criticism, its corporate bias! Complain about MSNBC and CNN, then run to Fox, which will side with you in your fights with Democrats. Bravo Bernie! It almost looks like you really do want the Democrats to lose in 2020. This will help Biden deal with Trump who is complains that coverage of the Coronavirus is just an effort to set him up for impeachment. This gives Biden a chance to say, "Sorry Bernie/Trump, the world does not revolve around you."

5. Elevates himself by demonizing the Democratic party. This is why Bernie has engaged in the weird strategy of repeatedly attacking the Democratic establishment, whose foundation is black voters, even though the race is to be the Democratic nominee. Trump is always bragging about how he is an outsider standing up against the establishment. Likewise, Bernie who has been in Congress since 1991, has been pretending to be an outsider who is standing against the establishment he hopes to lead.

6. Side with Russia against U.S. on election security. Bernie was one of two people to vote against Russian sanctions for election interference. Likewise, Bernie voted against the Magnitsky Act, which was the subject of the infamous Trump tower meeting. Finally, Bernie ditched a close Senate vote designed to stop Trump from lifting Russian sanctions. This is particularly convincing bit of cosplay to channel Trump's inner Putin stooge.

7. Side with authoritarian dictators. Before SNL was doing skits with Trump and Putin, Bernie was fawning over Castro and going on honeymoons in Soviet Russia. And, unlike Trump, we have the actual tapes! Yup, Bernie was laying it a bit thick on this one.

8. Refuse to be transparent about their health. Bernie has promised comprehensive disclosure of his health following his heart attack, but never mind, here is a Trump-like letter saying he is just fine.

9. Repeatedly undermines our Democracy by claiming that elections are being rigged against him by the establishment or the deep state. For example, the claim by AOC that Bernie lost MI due to voter suppression even though turnout particularly among black voters was at record levels? Funny! AOC later let us know she was just kidding!


10. Refuse to provide details. The Wall? Mexico will pay for it! Medicare for All? No one knows how much it costs (Bernie has said several times he has no idea how much his plan costs). Even better, watch Bernie respond to questions about how to pay for his plans by raising non-sequiturs.

11. Side with gunmakers and vote against control measures like the Brady Act. This is Bernie's chance to mimic Trump by promising to overturn the gunmaker immunity that he helped pass!

So, there you have it. The debate on Saturday is the result of a decades long, forward thinking cosplay by Bernie Sanders to prepare Joe Biden to debate Trump. It is so convincing, that if you close your eyes and put your fingers in your ears, you can still hear Bernie channeling his inner Trump and yelling, angrily during the debate and attacking the Democratic establishment like a Republican.
February 27, 2020

Sanders criticizes Warren's health care plan: 'I think we have a better way'

Bernie has a better way, but like Trump, he won't tell you his secret plan until after you elect him President.

Remember when Bernie Sanders found his inner Republican and attacked Elizabeth Warren for the costs of her Medicare for All Plan and for raising taxes to pay for her plan? Yet, to this date, Bernie has still refused to discuss costs or provide any detail regarding how he would pay for his proposals.


Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders criticized his 2020 presidential rival Sen. Elizabeth Warren's funding plan for "Medicare For All," calling his plan "more progressive" and squaring up the two most progressive candidates in the race for the Democratic nomination to do what neither of them have wanted to do: draw distinctions between each other.

Sanders, who has centered his candidacy around the fight for his single-payer Medicare for All legislation, told ABC News in an interview published Sunday that although he and Warren believe everyone should have health care, they differ on how to fund it. Her plan, he also said, would "have a very negative impact on creating jobs."

"We do disagree on how you fund it," Sanders told ABC News. "I think the approach that (I) have, in fact, will be much more progressive in terms of protecting the financial well being of middle income families."

Sanders specifically criticized the Massachusetts senator's nearly $9 trillion tax on employers. "I think that that would probably have a very negative impact on creating those jobs," Sanders said of the tax Warren's plan calls an "employer Medicare contribution." "Or providing wages, increased wages and benefits for those workers."

February 9, 2020

How Trump's three years of job gains compares with Obama's

Of course, President Obama took office in the midst of the worse economic crisis since the Great Depression.


President Donald Trump says he is particularly pleased with the jobs created during his three years in office. "We're producing jobs like you have never seen before in this country," he said during a recent speech in Michigan.

But you don't have to go back far to find three years of better job growth. Just to back to the previous three years under Barack Obama.

During Trump's first 36 months in office, the US economy has gained 6.6 million jobs. But during a comparable 36-month period at the end of Obama's tenure, employers added 8.1 million jobs, or 23% more than what has been added since Trump took office.

The average monthly gain so far under Trump is 182,000 jobs. During the last 36 months under Obama, employers were adding an average of 224,000 jobs a month.
February 1, 2020

Bernie Sanders Says U.S. Can't Have 'Open Borders' Because Poor People Will Come"

The study in the OP makes clear that Bernie Sander is just wrong when he blames immigrants from coming to take away benefits from American workers. This is just wrong. To the contrary, immigration has helped to fund social security because immigrant communities tend to be younger, which helps generate a tax base to fund social security.

Instead of acknowledging this, Bernie has continued to scapegoat immigrants even during the current election cycle.


Senator Bernie Sanders pushed back to clarify his position on immigration on Sunday after he was asked in Iowa about his reported support for open borders.

"I'm afraid you may be getting your information wrong," said Sanders, an independent from Vermont who is currently seeking the Democratic nomination to unseat President Donald Trump in 2020, The Washington Post reported. "I think what we need is comprehensive immigration reform," he said.

"Oh my god, there's a lot of poverty in this world, and you're going to have people from all over the world. And I don't think that's something that we can do at this point. Can't do it," the senator added.

* * *
Some immigration advocates and progressives have pushed for open borders, however, and many were quick to criticize Sanders's response on social media. Many said he sounded like Trump on immigration, while others argued that the U.S., as a wealthy nation, should show more concern about the plight of migrants.
February 1, 2020

How Bernie's Efforts to Restrict Immigration Harm Social Security

On this board today, Bernie supporters have defended Bernie's long history of trying to restrict immigration, which most notably included his opposing to comprehensive immigration reform in 2007, which would have provided a path to citizenship for millions of undocumented immigrants. We also see dozens of post painting Bernie Sanders as a defender of social security.

Yet, what is missing from the discussion is how both documented and undocumented immigrants have helped fund social security. As explained in this demographic study from 2005/2006, "Because immigrants tend to be younger and have higher fertility rates than the general population, immigration mitigates the aging of the population. Without immigration the aging trend would be more pronounced.

In other words, rather than blaming immigrants for the troubles faced by the American Working Class, Bernie should be thanking immigrants for their contributions. Our nation was built by immigrants. There is nothing incompatible with supporting American workers and supporting immigrants.


Coping with the Demographic Challenge: Fewer Children and Living Longer (Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 66, No. 4, 2005/2006)

Due to demographic changes, the U.S. Social Security system will face financial challenges in the near future. Declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancies are causing the U.S. population to age. Today 12 percent of the total population is aged 65 or older, but by 2080, it will be 23 percent. At the same time, the working-age population is shrinking from 60 percent today to a projected 54 percent in 2080. Consequently, the Social Security system is experiencing a declining worker-to-beneficiary ratio, which will fall from 3.3 in 2005 to 2.1 in 2040 (the year in which the Social Security trust fund is projected to be exhausted). This presents a significant challenge to policymakers.

One policy option that could help keep the Social Security system solvent is to reduce retirement benefits, either by raising the normal retirement age or through life expectancy indexing, to reflect the fact that people are living longer. However, these reductions in benefits have the potential to harm economically vulnerable retirees. Other options, such as progressive price indexing proposals, explicitly protect the retirement benefits of low lifetime earners. Still other options would seek to raise additional revenue for the system.

Since individuals will be living longer in retirement, many policymakers believe it is important to encourage older workers to delay retirement so that they can maintain a quality standard of living throughout their retirement. One proposal to encourage continued work would be to increase the early eligibility age for Social Security benefits from age 62 to age 65. This could possibly hurt individuals who need to retire from physically demanding jobs but would ensure that people receive higher benefit amounts once they were able to fully retire.

Other proposals that could promote more work at older ages include expanding phased retirement options and reforming pension and defined contribution systems to create incentives to work and save.

* * *

Immigration also plays a role in the age structure of the population. Compared with earlier decades, net immigration has increased in recent years (Table 2). Because immigrants tend to be younger and have higher fertility rates than the general population, immigration mitigates the aging of the population. Without immigration the aging trend would be more pronounced.
December 27, 2019

Bernie Is Stealing Trump's Campaign Playbook - Polls and Fake News

Look at this Board. Most Pro-Bernie threads consist of:

1. Bashing the media complaining about bias when he is covered or a Bernie blackout when he is not; or

2. Talking about polls that show him in the lead.

Who does that remind you of? The Bernie revolution is just warmed over Trump style populism built on attacking the "Democratic Establishment."

We need to get away from the status quo and elect a Democrat that can address and inform the people and elevate the political dialogue, rather than replicate and validate Republican talking points regarding Fake News, polls and Democrats.

We need a movement that empowers and informs the people, rather than one built around unquestioning devotion to a personality.

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