New Haven

New Haven's Journal

August 6, 2014

I think you are spot on on this

I think his methodology has uncovered some of the big flaws in the well know polls --Gallup---and he is recognizing real simple things like oversampling---my OP was just that the guy needs to stay employed---and it was a big risk to abandon NYT for a landscape that is not necessarily interested in politics---so he might have to take a different approach in the earlier months----keep everybody watching him----he already owns the left ----so a bit of pandering to the right might be good for business---I mean the guy is brilliant --AND he needs to survive

August 5, 2014

Is Nate Silver Fudging the poll? Maybe the Democrats are ahead?

Nate's recent prediction is that the GOP has a 60% chance of winning over control of the Senate. If he called the 2014 midterms for the Democrats right now he more than likely would tick off a lot of the Republicans and they would stop listening/viewing him. That translates into a lot of advertising dollars to his blog at ESPN. Let's face it, ESPN thought they had a gold mine when they scored a big coup against the "Gray Lady" New York Times when they stole him away. They also have invested heavily in his brand and are supporting a staff that is a "dream team" for Silver. Never in his wildest imagination did he ever think he would have the command post he occupies now. Since his move from the NYT to ESPN things might not be going as well as expected. Where is the evidence that mixing sports with politics has been a winning formula? It was a lot easier when his audience was generated from his NYT base because his viewers could just jump over to his blog. Now his loyal fan base has to make a special effort to go to his blog and, being politicos by nature, might not want to read all the sports and finance parts of the blog.. I know he cut his teeth predicting sports outcomes, but he became the media darling with his political forecasts. If he is not careful he just might be heading to an advertising/financial support issue. But if you were Nate Silver, and you are extremely adept at predictions, maybe you fluff the numbers a bit if it builds audience .So what do you do? Get the GOP to keep reading the site by making them look like a squeaker winner in the November election.

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Gender: Male
Hometown: New England
Current location: Connecticut
Member since: Sun Oct 28, 2012, 11:27 AM
Number of posts: 1,059

About New Haven

A child of the 60's, a lifelong Democrat and a sense that our elected officials , especially the President, set the tone of civility in our great country. I worked on JFK's campaign and on Barack Obama's (twice). High School Class of 1963 I was moved by MLK's March on Washington, and to see that go full circle and have Barack Obama for President is quite gratifying. When I see remnants of the John Birch society still quite active in the Tea Party/MAGA it strengthens my beliefs and support of the Democratic Party.