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Treant's Journal
Treant's Journal
May 24, 2016

Sanders Requests KY Review(Hillary Group)


I'm presenting this utterly without comment as I'm beyond words at the moment.

Edited: I said Recount, and meant Review. A recount isn't a review, and the article explains this.
May 7, 2016

Clinton Wins in Guam!


It's only a Reddit thread, so I'd wait for more official results, but from this it seems that Clinton won Guam 59-33, taking 4 of 7 delegates.

ETA: So far, apparently the northern end hasn't come in yet, and they have the most votes and the largest district(s)?

Second Edit: Clinton Wins Guam!

Clinton 59.2%, Sanders 40.1%, Uncommitted 2.5%
Clinton wins 4 delegates, Sanders 3.
April 26, 2016

Voted in PA! (Clinton Group)

For Hillary and her delegates, of course!

We're in the midst (mist?!?) of a batch of thunderstorms and heavy showers, so I drove there and back in an absolute downpour.

I hope Hillary appreciates what I do for her.

On the way out, I was accosted by a candidate who wants to be listed on the ballot in November--a Libertarian. I kindly demurred. He got a little nasty and asked, "Don't you believe in choice?"

I responded, "Not for Ayn Rand Republicans. Good day."

Not my best moment.

Edited to add: I was voter #211 in my district, which at 1:30 PM is actually very heavy voting. Last November I was #100 or so a few hours later!

April 25, 2016

Got a call from a Clinton delegate (Clinton Group)

I just received a call from a lovely potential Clinton delegate named Beatrice--who told me it was her dream to vote for Hillary Clinton in the State delegate process and asked for my vote tomorrow for her.

She sounded like an older lady who's very into the political process here in Pennsylvania.

I told her of course!

(Actually, I have to review our ballot when I have time this evening so I know what I'm doing when I get in there tomorrow).

April 9, 2016

Wyoming Results Coming In!


Clinton just won Cheyenne, which is interesting. Today might not be quite as bad as we feared (although I do expect Sanders to win the state, big).
March 24, 2016

Playing with Delegate Math


I created a scenario where Clinton doesn't do any better than tie any future contest, Bernie sweeps this weekend by greater margins than I expect, and he does better in the future in many states than I expect.

He still walks into the convention 13 delegates behind Clinton.

We should note that I don't expect Clinton to lose or tie in NY, PA, MD, DE, or NJ. I don't expect Sanders to have landslides in most states where I gave him a landslide. This is simply an absolute worst case given present events.

Make your own and share them here!
March 2, 2016

538 Delegate Targets (Hillary Clinton Group)


Clinton is now at 113% of her target (while Trump is at 112% of his), and a current delegate count of 596 total.

What made me smile is that, if you look ahead to March fifth, Clinton would be ahead of her target at the end of the day if she didn't receive a single delegate during those contests.

She would still be even with her target if she didn't receive a single delegate on March 6th, although she'd fall behind on March 8th.

Clinton must be feeling very, very positive this morning. She's actually picked up a four state all-delegate advantage. Smaller states, admittedly, but still.

March 1, 2016

OK Exit Polls (Hillary Clinton Group)


It's quite early, and exit polls always stink (remember Nevada?) but these are looking very good for Clinton!

At best, it's an interesting and possibly useful data point. I wouldn't make too much hay of it just yet.
March 1, 2016

American Samoa Up First! (Hillary Clinton Group)

American Samoa's caucus will be held at 2 PM Eastern time and will award 6 pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

The caucus is quite small (AS only has about 55,000 residents), low key, held at a single hotel, and should report in fairly quickly. Expect results by 4 to 5 PM.

Hillary Clinton won the AS caucus in 2008, 57 to 43. There were 285 caucus-goers in 2008 (this is not a misprint).

February 29, 2016

Kos on Wrapping It Up (Hillary Clinton Group)


This is a wonderful, if sometimes rather harsh on Sanders, evaluation on the way things look right now. His fair cop is a maximum of five states won by Sanders tomorrow. Maximum.

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