HappyinLA
HappyinLA's JournalNew Franklin & Marshall PA poll
Just in from Pennsylvania.
Clinton 52%
Sanders 18%
O'Malley 0%
More fun with Kim Davis
So my wife knows the two ladies who went in to get their marriage license the other day, Carmen and Shannon Wampler-Collins, and it looks like their fight isn't over yet. It seems that what Kim did was deface the license, crossed out her name and some other stuff while writing in other things. The ACLU is worried that this invalidates the document since it's an official form and you can't go making changes on whim to it.
So the ladies are worried their license is worthless now. The ALCU is working on how to respond to this in court.
I'll have more info after tomorrow, my wife is going to interview Carmen tomorrow night on her talk show, so hopefully I can update this afterwords.
The reality of the new Quinnipac poll
Florida
HRC 48%
BS 15% -33
JB 11% -37
Ohio
HRC 47%
BS 17% -30
JB 14% -33
Pennsylvania
HRC 45%
BS 19% -26
JB 17% -28
Forget about Bernie catching Hillary for the nomination, he needs to be careful he doesn't finish 3rd behind a guy who hasn't declared.
Fun items from the PPP NC Poll
Looking over the internals on this. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_81915.pdf
1) NC folks love them some Ben Carson and Carly Fionrina. Looks like they are the only ones on the plus side when it comes to Favorable/Unfavorable. They basically hate everyone. HRC is 34/57 for a -23 and BS is 28/40 for a -12.
2) Best question,
Q17 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Jeb
Bush, and Donald Trump running as an
independent who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton 38%
Jeb Bush 28%
Donald Trump 27%
They are already starting to the play the "Donald runs as an independent" fun.
3) The numbers aren't great for either HRC or BS when it comes to head to head against Republicans, basically NC will be a fight in the general. Which means my poor family is going to see non stop ads for months on end.
Interesting
If you were to look at the latest HuffPost Pollster trends, HRC is cruising along just fine. What's interesting to see how they suddenly show how close the 2nd and 3rd place folks are. Considering 3rd place is a guy who's not even in the race. But of course, in poll world every knows that trailing by 35.5 means more than only leading the guy behind you by 6.1. 
And in a game of Outliers are fun, look at that Zogby poll from 8/3 - 8/4 where Biden is #2 by a +6.
But in the end, it's another day, another poll with no significant movement. A few more of these and I'd expect Rove himself to show up and tell us that Ohio is still in play, and HRC is actually losing.
See Hillary just nabbed another endorsement.
This one from U.S. Senator Tom Harkin. How long before we hear Tom isn't a progressive? Or is a corporatist?
New Iowa numbers from PPP
Released today, 8/10, polling from 8/7-8/9
via ideology.
Hillary 52% overall support
49% identifying at very liberal
57% identifying as liberal
54% identifying as moderate
32% identifying as somewhat conservative
43% identifying as very conservative
Sanders 25% overall support
39% identifying at very liberal
22% identifying as liberal
18% identifying as moderate
26% identifying as somewhat conservative
16% identifying as very conservative
So +27 overall, +10 very liberal, +35 liberal, +6 somewhat conservative and +27 very conservative
And head to head, straight up, to be the nominee
HRC 52%
BS 25%
So +27 straight up
I thought BS was going to crush it in Iowa?
Looking at the MN PPP numbers
Looking at MN breaks in the new PPP via Favorability by ideology.
Hillary 73% overall Favorability
85% identifying at very liberal
75% identifying as liberal
62% identifying as moderate
54% identifying as somewhat conservative
45% identifying as very conservative
Sanders 56% overall Favorability
69% identifying at very liberal
60% identifying as liberal
46% identifying as moderate
35% identifying as somewhat conservative
33% identifying as very conservative
So HRC is +17 overall, she's +16 with very liberal and +15 with liberal.
For Age, this is interesting
Favorability by age.
Hillary's breakdown on Favorability is...
73% base
18-25 is 72%, 46-65 is 69% and 65+ is 79%
Sanders
56% base
18-45 is %55, 46-65 is 63% and 65+ is 47%.
So Hillary is getting the youngest and the oldest by large margins.
Some fascinating numbers from the new PPP poll
Just for giggles, looking at how the numbers break via ideology.
Hillary 57% overall support
64% identifying at very liberal
58% identifying as liberal
59% identifying as moderate
37% identifying as somewhat conservative
27% identifying as very conservative
Sanders 22% overall support
26% identifying at very liberal
19% identifying as liberal
16% identifying as moderate
31% identifying as somewhat conservative
42% identifying as very conservative
Not only is she +35 overall, she's +38 with very liberal and +39 with liberal.
That's going to hurt some feelings.
Profile Information
Member since: Thu Oct 3, 2013, 12:08 PMNumber of posts: 129
