HappyinLA
HappyinLA's JournalFun Polls for $100, Alex
You're a week away from an election, and you have "honesty" numbers that look like this...
Candidate A: 45% Honest, 50% Dishonest
vs
Candidate B: 66% Honest, 27% Dishonest
whom do you think wins?
As it turns out, Candidate A. 379 Electoral Votes to 159.
Seems to me that "honesty" isn't that great a predictive force for you call an election, even a week away, let alone months.
The falacy(?) of the fickle superdelegates
So I decided to do a little research on the superdelegates of 2008 and look into the whole "they switched to Obama!" thing.
Here is what I found...
Yes, some superdelegates switched from Hillary To Obama. Only it's not as simple as that.
First, only 50 switched. At the time the count was roughly HRC 296 / BO 428 (this is superdelegates only) out of 823 total. When the 50 switched the totals became 246/478.
And the 50 who switched, only did so after Obama was able to gather half of the supers (~412) first. In essence the superdelegates had their own private primary and Obama won.
They didn't switch because of popular vote count, or who won what State. It was entirely a case of first person to win the majority of superdelegates.
In 2016, there are 712 superdelegates. Half would be 356. Hillary already has 355. So the though of any high number of Distinguished party leaders, Governors, Senators, Representatives and DNC members suddenly changing their votes is practically nil.
Thought this might be interesting
Here is a little something I found. Looks like it takes the state polls to determine how the delegate counts would shake down in the primary.
Enjoy.
[link:http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016D/polls.php|
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Member since: Thu Oct 3, 2013, 12:08 PMNumber of posts: 129
