tgards79
tgards79's JournalBTRTN 2020 Snapshot: Dems' Odds of Taking Senate Continue to Improve
Born To Run The Numbers with its latest, up-to-the-minute snapshot of the 2020 Senate races. BTRTN models now suggest that the Democrats have a 62% chance of winning a majority in the Senate... up from 55% in the last report.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/08/btrtn-2020-snapshot-dems-odds-of-taking.html
Excerpts: "The primary season is nearly complete, with the pairings largely determined for the 2020 Senate races. Democrats are in good position to win the three net seats required to gain control of the Senate, assuming Joe Biden wins the presidency. They have excellent chances to flip Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina, while the GOP seems likely, as of today, to take back Alabama. And the GOP is vulnerable in several other races, most notably Iowa, Montana and Georgia. At this juncture – as of today – our BTRTN models suggest the Democrats have a 62% chance of taking control of the Senate, an increase from the 55% chance we noted in our last Senate snapshot on May 9. We have changed ratings in five races, four of them moving more favorably for the Democrats...
"The Democrats now hold commanding leads in several of the flip target states, and the number of states 'in play' has expanded. The following chart gives our BTRTN breakdown as of now. The Dems have eight elections they will surely win, while the GOP has twelve. That gives the Dems 43 'solid' seats and the GOP 42, with 15 races that have at least some chance of being competitive. It is the fate of those 15 seats that will determine control of the Senate. We said the Dems need to flip a net of +3 seats (to get to 50) assuming Biden wins, and, as of now, we see them accomplishing that by flipping four and giving back one. Our models indicate that, at this point, Biden has an 82% chance of winning the presidency..."
On Jeremy Lin
Part 6: The Jeremy Lin Saga Continues: Agony and Ecstasy, Pride and Prejudice
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/06/btrtn-part-6-jeremy-lin-saga-continues.html
Lin served notice that he had arrived in China right at the start of the exhibition season, when he dropped 40 points – more than his NBA career high of 38 – in his very first game. This was surely a point of pride, an announcement that, far from beaten, he was ready to reassert himself at center stage.
And while he did not hit that marker during the regular season, he started off the regular season with 25 points, 9 assists and 6 rebounds in an easy 103-81 Ducks’ win over the Tianjin Gold Lions. In classic, slashing Lin style, he went straight to the rim, and was rewarded with 12 chances at the free throw line, making 11. But the woes remained from the three-point line when he whiffed on all five attempts, and, befitting his return to “high usage” status, he also made 4 turnovers.
The Ducks won their first four games and six of their first seven, as Lin settled into a steady level of production, leading the team as he filled the box score. Game after game Lin delivered big, with slash lines speaking to both his production and his consistency: in the five games following his debut, he went for 24/8/6, 26/7/4, 27/7/6, 28/5/9 and 26/3/4... "
Great new article on Jeremy Lin
Part 6: The Jeremy Lin Saga Continues: Agony and Ecstasy, Pride and Prejudice
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/06/btrtn-part-6-jeremy-lin-saga-continues.html
Great new article on Jeremy Lin
Part 6: The Jeremy Lin Saga Continues: Agony and Ecstasy, Pride and Prejudice
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/06/btrtn-part-6-jeremy-lin-saga-continues.html
BTRTN: State of the "Race" (The Political One, not the Race to Contain Covid-19)
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/03/btrtn-state-of-race-political-one-not.html"The coronavirus essentially has accomplished the impossible, shutting down the world as we know it. Our global community has shrunk to fit within our four walls; whole swaths of our lives have been eliminated, while routine tasks (such as acquiring food) have become outsized events, requiring meticulous planning. Massive entities such as United Airlines and Carnival Cruise Lines suddenly find no demand for their products, while others that cater to the shut-in life, like Instacart and Zoom, are soaring.
And what of the presidential race, that quadrennial spectacle? Yes, it is still underway, in near-subterranean fashion. Our purpose here is to give you an update, because it is pretty hard to tell what is going on if you don’t search carefully. Campaign coverage, if not non-existent, has been relegated to the final minutes of any news or commentary show at best, the middle pages of the newspaper, and "below the fold" of any website.
So let us provide an update covering five subjects: how the campaigns are being run; the delegate count; the primary schedule, such as it is right now; the head-to-head polls; and, finally, for sport, the state of the Democratic veepstakes. Plus, a brief section on Andrew Cuomo..."
BTRTN: Why the Coronavirus Numbers Scare Me
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/03/btrtn-why-coronavirus-numbers-scare-me.html
Let’s look at the trend in Italy. Italy, as you know from the headlines, is having a terrible time with the coronavirus. But looking at this chart, you can see that our trend is right with Italy -- just about eleven days behind them. Their growth rate is in the 20%+ range, and they are up to more than 15,000 cases.
Rates of change persist until something happens to slow them down. And the Italian government basically shut down the entire country three days ago. All shops in the entire country have been shut down by the Italian government, with the exception of supermarkets, pharmacies and a few others. They had already banned travel within the country (except for work or health reasons), and shut down all the schools. (Spain and France just announced, minutes ago, that they are taking similar steps.)
We have not taken any actions remotely resembling that – in fact we have taken little federal action at all within our borders; almost all of our shutdowns have been done voluntarily on a local basis by governors, mayors, or businesses (such as the NBA)....
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BTRTN: Why the Coronavirus Numbers Scare Me
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/03/btrtn-why-coronavirus-numbers-scare-me.htmlLet’s look at the trend in Italy. Italy, as you know from the headlines, is having a terrible time with the coronavirus. But looking at this chart, you can see that our trend is right with Italy -- just about eleven days behind them. Their growth rate is in the 20%+ range, and they are up to more than 15,000 cases.
Rates of change persist until something happens to slow them down. And the Italian government basically shut down the entire country three days ago. All shops in the entire country have been shut down by the Italian government, with the exception of supermarkets, pharmacies and a few others. They had already banned travel within the country (except for work or health reasons), and shut down all the schools. (Spain and France just announced, minutes ago, that they are taking similar steps.)
We have not taken any actions remotely resembling that – in fact we have taken little federal action at all within our borders; almost all of our shutdowns have been done voluntarily on a local basis by governors, mayors, or businesses (such as the NBA)....
Final BTRTN predictions for March 10 primaries
Here are their final...Biden sweep, lively read:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/03/btrtn-march-10-primaries-previews-is.html
"We begin with Not-Quite-Super-Tuesday, tomorrow, with six primaries. A total of 352 pledged delegates are at stake, with Michigan (125) the largest prize, followed by Washington (89), Missouri (68), Mississippi (36) and Idaho (20), North Dakota (14).
Biden heads into the March 10 primaries with 664 delegates to 573 for Sanders. (There still remain about 100 delegates that have yet to be allocated from Super Tuesday, largely from California.) This is hardly an insurmountable lead, but, based on the results to date, the rest of the primary season appears to favor Biden. Biden has dominated in south and southwestern states and should do well in the Mid-Atlantic states near his Delaware home. Thus, Biden-land includes large states such as Florida (219), Georgia (105), Pennsylvania (186), New Jersey (126) and Maryland (96). Sanders’ strength is in the west, where no such large state primaries remain, Arizona being the largest with 67 delegates. Biden has proven his ability to hold his own in New England, having already won in Massachusetts and Maine."
"It seems clear Biden will win Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi. The fate of the western states is far less clear. At this juncture, we think the momentum is in Biden’s favor, and therefore are calling a sweep. But, as you can see, in very close races it hardly matters who wins or loses, since the delegates are allocated proportionately. Close wins do not close large gaps, and thus Biden’s large wins in Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi will carry the day."
BTRTN South Carolina Preview: Can a Funny Thing Happen on the Way to Bernie's Coronation?
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/02/btrtn-south-carolina-preview-can-funny.html"The Democratic campaign is over, right? Bernie Sanders is the nominee. He basically won the first three contests. After essentially tying with Pete Buttigieg in lily-white Iowa, winning New Hampshire and utterly clobbering the field in Nevada, showing strength in every demographic in that highly diverse state, what more does Bernie have to prove? Nate Silver has run the numbers, Bernie is going to come out of Super Tuesday with an insurmountable 300+ delegate lead and, as the Boss would say, man, that was all she wrote. Now it’s time for the Bernie youth brigade to figure out where the ballot boxes are in November and actually show up to vote, and for the rest of us to grit our teeth and unify behind Sanders, like it or not.
Wait, what?
There is something called the “South Carolina Primary.” Have we forgotten? Joe Biden’s firewall? Hello, anybody home?
Wake up, folks, because Joe Biden is going to win South Carolina. He’s actually going to win big. And by Saturday night, Nate will start re-spinning his numbers faster than I can say '2016.' "
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