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Loki Liesmith

Profile Information

Member since: Thu May 26, 2016, 09:07 AM
Number of posts: 4,428

About Me

God of lies. Like math.

Journal Archives

An interesting pattern in "deplorables" on twitter

Many accounts were registered late last year. But did not begin posting anything until on after February 27 of 2016.

It's like a switch got flipped.

Will continue to follow up.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue Oct 11, 2016, 12:21 PM (5 replies)

Eichenwald update: Someone is DIRECTLY feeding Trump Russian Disinformation and Trump is repeating

https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/785661547234271232

What is the relationship between Trump campaign and Putin that led Trump to recite Russian disinformation at rally


http://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-sidney-blumenthal-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-benghazi-sputnik-508635

At a rally in Wilkes Barre, Pennsylvania, Trump spoke while holding a document in his hand. He told the assembled crowd that it was an email from Blumenthal, whom he called “sleazy Sidney.”

“This just came out a little while ago,’’ Trump said. “I have to tell you this.” And then he read the words from my article.

“He’s now admitting they could have done something about Benghazi,’’ Trump said, dropping the document to the floor. “This just came out a little while ago.”

The crowd booed and chanted, “Lock her up!”

This is not funny. It is terrifying. The Russians engage in a sloppy disinformation effort and, before the day is out, the Republican nominee for president is standing on a stage reciting the manufactured story as truth. How did this happen? Who in the Trump campaign was feeding him falsehoods straight from the Kremlin?


Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Oct 10, 2016, 10:07 PM (31 replies)

Release the #trumptapes campaign

Apparently @MGM_Studios now owns all the Appentice outtakes.

Maybe you should let them know how you feel about them concealing this info from voters.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Oct 10, 2016, 07:55 PM (0 replies)

Gotta say that anti-Trump Republicans

are capable of laying down some quality smack talk

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/785447030931861508
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Mon Oct 10, 2016, 09:23 AM (5 replies)

Yougov Poll: Clinton edges a win

https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/785321956203700224

47-42
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Sun Oct 9, 2016, 11:35 PM (4 replies)

Thought Donald did a tad better this week

Still cringe inducing.

Polls afterwards will probably only reflect who is watching.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Sun Oct 9, 2016, 10:41 PM (22 replies)

Election model update 10/7

Model Description:

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 86.65 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 315.01
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 317.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinto: 324

#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 80.32 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 302.09
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 303.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario: 291

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 3.33

Analysis: Projected national lead building...both drift probability and instantaneous probability are in the same range. With only a ~month to go, are these numbers finally converging? Whatever the case, Clinton's bad week in September is now completely out of the algorithms system.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Fri Oct 7, 2016, 09:23 AM (0 replies)

Trumps town hall tonight: the real reason

Making it a public campaign event was the ONLY WAY they could get Donald to practice for the next debate. Certain of that.
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Thu Oct 6, 2016, 03:58 PM (19 replies)

Election Model 10/5/2016

Search my journal pages for previous updates

Model Description:

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 86.3 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 314.02
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 317.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinto: 321

#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 74.4 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 296.77
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 299.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario: 308

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 2.25
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Wed Oct 5, 2016, 09:14 PM (0 replies)

So anyone NOT BOTHERING to watch the debate?

I really need to get to the rock gym...
Posted by Loki Liesmith | Tue Oct 4, 2016, 07:41 PM (38 replies)
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