reggieandlee
reggieandlee's JournalBTRTN Iowa Caucuses Prediction: Bernie with a Solid Win, Biden Comfortably in Second
Born to Run the Numbers provides its prediction of the outcome of the Iowa Caucuses:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/02/btrtn-iowa-caucuses-prediction-bernie.html
Excerpts: "Caucuses are more difficult to predict than primaries, because that time-consuming voting process demands much more of voters than a normal primary, and thus voter turnout is quite low. It is difficult to discern the impact of this degree of commitment in polling – it’s hard to tell who is actually going to show up and stay. And the two-stage process adds its own unpredictable dynamic. Plus, relative to past Iowa caucuses, predictors like BTRTN do not have the benefit of a final Des Moines Register poll, typically the last of the cycle. Nevertheless, we at BTRTN have done well in the past. We correctly predicted the Clinton win in 2016 as well as Ted Cruz’s victory over Donald Trump and Marco Rubio in the GOP caucus. Both were extraordinarily close...
"So we venture forth again. Polling of late shows that Bernie Sanders has achieved some level of separation in the last few days from Joe Biden, and has some modest momentum. He also has a better “ground game” than Biden. Biden has been steady in January at about the 20% level, and is behind Sanders, while Pete Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren are trailing Biden. Amy Klobuchar has been on the rise, but despite reaching double digits for the first time ever in Iowa in some polls, she remains in fifth place, and, importantly, below the 15% threshold. She will be zeroed out in a number of precincts, perhaps in a majority...
"The official Born To Run The Numbers prediction for the Democratic Iowa caucus is a solid win for Bernie Sanders, with Joe Biden finishing comfortably in second. Our prediction for the final vote is as follows..."
BTRTN: No Guardrails, No Restraint...No John McCain, No John Bolton
Born To Run The Numbers' "month in review" for January, 2020, clearly the most consequential and calamitous in Trump's Presidency:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/02/btrtn-no-guardrails-no-restraintno-john.html
Excerpts: "At the beginning of the month, with Nancy Pelosi executing her “not quite yet” mode of withholding the articles of impeachment, attention shifted to the volatile Middle East. Trump ordered the killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani of Iran in retaliation for an attack, selecting the most aggressive option on the table, with flimsy and inconsistent justification, resulting in further destabilization in the smoldering Middle East. With potentially far-reaching unintended consequences mounting daily, it was clear that Trump’s entire Iranian strategy was literally blowing up in his face.
"Pelosi’s gambit failed to influence McConnell’s trial rules, but succeeded in spotlighting the issue of what constituted a 'fair trial,' and the witness controversy became the central drama. More revelations cemented the storyline, featuring Lev Parnas and culminating with The New York Times’ story that John Bolton confirmed that Trump had told Bolton directly that the release of military aid was completely dependent on a Ukraine President Zelensky announcement of Biden/Burisma/Hilary Clinton server investigations. The Senate trial featured a highly effective, just-the-facts-and-logic story, wrapped in impassioned pleas to GOP Senators led by the House Manager Adam Schiff to abide by the Constitution, protect separation of powers, and remove Trump from office. Republicans filled their airtime with the kitchen sink -- even the incredible defense that if Trump felt his reelection was in the national interest, then anything to achieve that aim was fair.The month culminated with the drama of whether the Senate would call John Bolton as a witness, echoing the tension of the Obamacare votes that hinged on a small set of moderate Republicans.. But Lamar Alexander and Lisa Murkowsky opted for no witnesses, setting the stage for the acquittal for Trump to open February, ending the sham of a trial..."
BTRTN: No Guardrails, No Restraint...No John McCain, No John Bolton
Born To Run The Numbers' "month in review" for January, 2020, clearly the most consequential and calamitous in Trump's Presidency:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/02/btrtn-no-guardrails-no-restraintno-john.html
Excerpts: "At the beginning of the month, with Nancy Pelosi executing her “not quite yet” mode of withholding the articles of impeachment, attention shifted to the volatile Middle East. Trump ordered the killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani of Iran in retaliation for an attack, selecting the most aggressive option on the table, with flimsy and inconsistent justification, resulting in further destabilization in the smoldering Middle East. With potentially far-reaching unintended consequences mounting daily, it was clear that Trump’s entire Iranian strategy was literally blowing up in his face.
"Pelosi’s gambit failed to influence McConnell’s trial rules, but succeeded in spotlighting the issue of what constituted a 'fair trial,' and the witness controversy became the central drama. More revelations cemented the storyline, featuring Lev Parnas and culminating with The New York Times’ story that John Bolton confirmed that Trump had told Bolton directly that the release of military aid was completely dependent on a Ukraine President Zelensky announcement of Biden/Burisma/Hilary Clinton server investigations. The Senate trial featured a highly effective, just-the-facts-and-logic story, wrapped in impassioned pleas to GOP Senators led by the House Manager Adam Schiff to abide by the Constitution, protect separation of powers, and remove Trump from office. Republicans filled their airtime with the kitchen sink -- even the incredible defense that if Trump felt his reelection was in the national interest, then anything to achieve that aim was fair.The month culminated with the drama of whether the Senate would call John Bolton as a witness, echoing the tension of the Obamacare votes that hinged on a small set of moderate Republicans.. But Lamar Alexander and Lisa Murkowsky opted for no witnesses, setting the stage for the acquittal for Trump to open February, ending the sham of a trial..."
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