Fahrenthold451
Fahrenthold451's JournalThe Iowa Caucus was a disaster.
Tom Perez threw a mean nothingball. His limited appearances on TV we're not remarkable. I'll forgive his bland with a side of bland approach. But let's not forget just how ridiculous the Iowa Caucus was. Remember Trump mocking us for not being able to count the votes? That could have been a complete disaster for the party. Jamie is going to be great on TV and outstanding for fund raising. There's some discussion about shifting the primary order away from IA and NH. I just hope he locks down the voting process--tight.
Thank you DU.
I want to thank everyone at DU for all that you do. I wouldn't have made it through the election without this forum. You are all much appreciated.
After about three months of fairly intense and unhealthy media consumption, I'm starting the Thanksgiving season a bit early. My plan? After giving the Georgia Senate candidates a good chunk of money today, the phone is going to be turned off. I'm going to go for walks. I'm going to take a break and give thanks.
I'm thankful Biden won. I'm thankful he picked Harris. I'm thankful for Jill and our second gentleman. I'm thankful that Trump is descending into irrelevance.
I appreciate you all. Aloha for a bit.
What Arizona Means
Driving around nice neighborhoods in Phoenix, it was startling to see the Biden signs everywhere. I only saw a couple of Trump bumper stickers. Many of my Republican friends went Trump this year. Yeah, the election was close, but you could feel how different AZ was this cycle. I think I know why the state felt so blue.
What the pundits don't talk too much about is that we already went through our Trumpism dalliance in AZ. Sheriff Joe lead the charge with his immigration roundups. The old Maricopa County Attorney Andy Thomas was MAGA before that term existed. He literally arrested judges, the press and political rivals. Russell Pearce in the Senate got AZ 1070 passed. We lived Trump already, people hated it, and it turned the state blue.
If Arizona serves as a guide, there still is hope for this nation. It took a long time for Arizona to come around. It still isn't perfect by any stretch. But we all got a good taste of racism and conservative lunacy over here, and we rejected it.
I've been waiting and waiting for this day. It's been brutal here. Arizona just put the nail in the coffin for Trump. Nevada and AZ get Biden home. If the country follows Arizona's example, the people will just move on.
ACA OK. Pence on Vacay. GA Solid. Markets Stable. Jello Jiggling.
My black circled eyes hurt. My forearms are buzzing from iPhone carpal tunnel tingling. Little pangs of dread still rocket through my soul from time to time. But it's time for a good old fashioned reality check. It's the morning after this dark night of the soul. Snap out of it.
If this were even fucking close, Pence wouldn't go collecting seashells with Mother. Edrogan would not be congratulating Biden. The DOW would not be rallying.
The legal challenges, you say? The count is too damn high. You can delete 600 votes but not 60,000. Barr? Read his memo. It's complete bullshit. Trump's lawyers? The partners at Jones Day law firm are experiencing profound regret for helping Trump. Rudy will be indicted by April. It's nonsense.
Ohhhh, but the Senate. Shit. Mitch was threatened by Trump. You know it. Support me or I'll campaign against princess Learjet and that other fuckface. It's just a shakedown. Even little Marco's legs are shaking. Let Trump move on them very strongly.
What we are experiencing now is the political equivalent of a clogged-toilet-double-flush. Sure, it's scary as it gets close to the top. I'll forgive you for panic running upstairs to get the plunger. But, on return, like a miracle, it will have disappeared.
Turn the lights off and the fan on. Go back to the kitchen. Turn your phone off and have some fucking Jello. Start thinking about what you are going to do to help Warnock and Ossoff. No, seriously, what are you willing to sacrifice to help us win the Senate from these Republican fucks.
This presidential contest is OVER.
Arizona Number Crunch: Looks Good
The last dump was 67,000 votes and Trump picked up 7000. This is Maricopa County. Trump is netting 9.5% of the outstanding vote. Meaning for every hundred votes counted, Trump reduces Biden's lead by 9.5 votes.
There are 126,000 regular ballots remaining. Of the remaining 92,000 are Maricopa.
47,000 provisional ballots remain. These ballots tend to skew D and/or many of these won't count. Further, these won't be counted until next week.
So by tomorrow, all the regular ballots will be counted and assuming the same trend, 126k X .095
=11970
Biden's current lead is 29861
Minus 11970
17891 Biden wins
Let's assume that all the provisional ballots follow the same trend.
Bidens lead 29861 - 16435
13426 Biden wins.
Philly will announce their ballots, networks will call it.
When Biden is over 20k it's over. I'm predicting they call within an hour.
I didn't do as much as I could to help Biden.
I did a lot, but not as much as I could have or should have.
Not going to make the same mistake with the Georgia Senate runoffs.
I'm going to dig deep. Anything and everything so when it's over I'll be able to hold my head high no matter the outcome.
I normally don't listen to Trump. I am this time.
I want to listen to every word and take it all in. This is his downfall speech. This is the moment that will make it impossible to hide how much he hates our democracy.
The big question will be whether or not he takes questions and the press had better defend our country. They better push back now.
PA numbers update. Still looks great.
Assuming 700k outstanding Mail ballots in PA the question is can Biden make up his current 136,000 vote deficit? The answer is yes. Conservatively assume 70-30 thats 490 Biden 210 Trump, net 280. And that's being pretty conservative.
136,000 Trump Lead minus 280,000 Biden net 144,000 Biden win.
(Edit: I'm saying there are 700k outstanding, combination Mail and Philly. Should have been more clear. Trying to be conservative here)
Here was my analysis yesterday. Numbers are holding.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100214447568
Crunching numbers on PA. Looks great. Want to dive in to #s?
I've been following the trends as PA returns are coming in. NYT calculated this morning that with a 78% D advantage for Mail in Biden would win PA by 100k votes. That was with 1.4 M outstanding and a deficit of 700k votes for Biden.
Here's the quote from the Upshot NYT
President Trump leads by nearly 700,000 votes in Pennsylvania as of 5 a.m. on Wednesday, and Mr. Biden’s chances depend on whether he can win a large percentage of the more than 1.4 million absentee ballots that remain to be counted.
So far, Mr. Biden has won absentee voters in Pennsylvania, 78 percent to 21 percent, according to the Secretary of State’s office. The results comport with the findings of pre-election surveys and an analysis of absentee ballot requests, which all indicated that Mr. Biden held an overwhelming lead among absentee voters.
Now, some hours later with 1.1 M ballots remaining, per NYT, Trump's lead has shrunk to 321k. This is astonishing, because per math, you can't shrink a lead by 379k after counting 300k votes.
So, there is an explanation. There have been more outstanding Mail ballots than the experts thought. And/or Philly is absolutely crushing it above the 78/21. For the math to make sense it's probably 85/15 and there were 1.5 M outstanding Mail ballots.
Conclusión? Nate Cohn's math had Biden up 100k in PA when it's all said and done. If the trends hold, however, we might be looking at Biden netting 616k more votes which would put Biden up about 300k at the end of counting.
I had to run the numbers a bunch of times to get to that conclusion. If any geeks want to take a look at it correct me.
As of 4:53 EST in PA
Trump +320k
84% of Vote in at 5.9 M votes.
5.9/.84 = 7 million total.
7M - 5.9 = 1.1M outstanding to be counted.
1.1 x .78 = Biden's remaining 858
1.1 x .22 = Ts 242 (Im rounding him up to .22)
858-242 net 616 to Biden
616B - 320T a = 294,000 winning margin for Biden.
That margin is too big to take to the Supreme Court.
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Member since: Mon Oct 17, 2016, 01:48 PMNumber of posts: 436
