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marylandblue's Journal
marylandblue's Journal
November 18, 2016

Matt Bai's postmortem

Basically, the party’s leading funders and operatives decided that they didn’t have to pander to white people living outside of cities anymore, because with each passing year their voters were cementing a new majority and redrawing the electoral map. Every election now was going to be a turnout election; get the people who already agree with you to the polls, and you don’t have to worry very much about persuading anyone else...

...And so this was Hillary’s driving theory of the race. Her campaign was effectively nothing but a giant turnout operation, crunching data on reliable Democratic voters while simultaneously keeping the candidate herself from saying anything remotely interesting. She ran on a database, rather than on an argument; the more Trump alienated and motivated her base, the less she felt the need to make any discernible case...

...But the Cult of Demography was built on some very flawed assumptions...

... even if you buy that a Democrat can maximize turnout among minorities and the already converted, it doesn’t mean you can simply forget about everyone else. In politics, how well you do among your own constituencies isn’t all that matters; there’s also the question of just how poorly you do among the groups you can’t win.

An analysis by The Hill newspaper found that while Clinton actually performed better than Obama in the most densely populated counties of states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, she trailed him by much larger margins in the all-white rural areas, which sealed her defeat.

Why? Because she never so much as looked in their direction...



November 16, 2016

Clinton lost because she's an insider

Mr. Smith Goes to Washington. It's an enduring myth in American politics, we always want outsiders to come in and fix things. Five of the last six presidents have been Washington outsiders when they ran for their first term. The only except was Bush Sr. Obama was a Senator, but he was barely two years into his first term when he announced his candidacy. I think he realized that his best shot was before he got tainted as just another Washington politician. Now in this election, we had the ultimate outsider vs. the ultimate insider. This dynamic worked against Clinton when Trump kept asking, "You've been there for 30 years, why haven't you fixed everything?" Of course it's a stupid question, but Clinton didn't have a good answer.

I edited this post to remove the comment about Bernie, because he isn't really the point. It's about insider vs. outsider.

November 8, 2016


Hi, I've been lurking here for years, and finally decided to join. I'm very nervous about today and I need a friendly place to post instead of the mixed party swamp I usually post at.

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