nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's JournalHow will Brown(OH) and Tester(MT) perform in their 2024 US Senate re-election bid?
Brown’s Republican opponent will either be Matt Dolan or Warren Davidson.
Tester’s Republican opponent will either be Matt Rosendale or Ryan Zinke.
In WV, I am expecting Manchin-D to lose re-election to Alex Mooney-R
Democrats will hold onto AZ(Sinema - Gallego), MI(Stabenow),NV(Rosen),NJ(Menendez),PA(Casey),VA(Kaine),and WI(Baldwin).
If Gabby Giffords had not been a victim of gun violence, she would be in the US Senate(Sinema seat)
Giffords got elected in 2006 to AZ-8(Kolbe’s seat),re-elected in 2008 and 2010. was shot in 2011. If Giffords had not been shot, she would run for re-election in 2012 to the new AZ-2 defeating Martha McSally-R. Giffords would win re-election in 2014 and 2016. In 2018, Giffords would be the Democratic nominee for Jeff Flake’s-R soon to be former US Senate seat.
Would Gabby Giffords husband Mark Kelly be allowed to run for the US Senate in 2020/2022 if Gabby Giffords is serving in the US Senate.(Husband and Wife serving together in the US Senate from the same state.)
The reason why Sinema is serving in the US Senate is that Giffords had to resign from the US House in 2012 due to being a victim of gun violence. Sinema got elected to the US House in 2012 to the new AZ-9. Sinema got re-elected in 2014 and 2016. Sinema got elected to the US Senate in 2018 because like Gabby Giffords, she was a Democrat from a swing district.
If Cardin-MD retires in 2024, who wins the Democratic nomination for the 2024 MD US Senate Election?
Angela Alsobrooks-D
2 term Prince George’s County Attorney and 2 term Prince George’s County Executive.
Becomes the 2nd Female(Barbara Mikulski-D) and 1st Black US Senator from MD in history.
Jamie Raskin-D
4 term US Representative from MD-8(Washington,DC Metro Area- Montgomery County)Chris Van Hollen’s old district.
4 term MD State Senator from MD-20(Montgomery County)
Has high name recognition national and statewide.
Is the 5th most progressive member of US House of Representatives according to Progressive Punch.
Excellent Fundraiser.
John Sarbanes-D
9 term US Representative from MD-3(Greater Baltimore Area- Anne Arundel,Howard,Carroll,and formerly Baltimore County) MD-3 was represented by Sarbanes’s father Paul,Barbara Mikulski, and Ben Cardin.
Has high statewide name recognition due Paul Sarbanes’s 40 years and John Sarbanes’s 18 years of service in elected office in MD.
Class of 2024 newly elected US Senators.
NE(special)-Pete Ricketts-R
IN- Eric Holcomb-R
CA- Ro Khanna-D
AZ- Ruben Gallego-D
WV- Alex Mooney-R
MD- Jamie Raskin-D
VT- Becca Ballint-D
When does MD US Senator Ben Cardin retire and Who is likely to succeed him?
If Cardin decides to retire in 2024-
John Sarbanes-D
Jamie Raskin-D
If Cardin decides to retire in 2030-
Wes Moore-D completes his 2nd term as Governor. Runs for the US Senate before his Presidential Candidacy.
Anthony Brown-D completes his 2nd term as Attorney General. Runs for Governor in 2030 or US Senator if Wes Moore decides not to run for the US Senate.
Aruna Miller-D completes her 2nd term as Lt. Governor. Runs for Governor in 2030 or US Senator if Wes Moore decides not to run for the US Senate.
When does VT US Senator Bernie Sanders retire and Who is likely to succeed him?
If Sanders decides to retire in 2024-
David Zuckerman-P
Becca Ballint-D
If Sanders decides to retire in 2030
Jill Krowinski-D
Charity Clark-D
Who gets appointed to Diane Feinstein’s vacant CA US Senate seat?
Before 2024?
After 2024?
Ro Khanna-D becomes the first Hindu US Senator from CA.
What year does MD US Senator Ben Cardin retire? Who is likely to succeed him?
2024- John Sarbanes or Jamie Raskin.
2030- Wes Moore- assuming he does not become President,Vice President,or Cabinet Secretary in 2029. Moore will be completing his 2nd term as Governor of MD./ Aruna Miller-completing her 2nd term as MD Lt Governor. Miller will run for Governor or US Senator./ Brooke Lierman- completing her 2nd term for MD Comptroller. Lierman will run for re-election as Comptroller, run for Governor or US Senator.
Brooke Lierman is likely to be the front runner for the US Senate in 2046 when Chris Van Hollen decides retires. Lierman gets re-elected Comptroller in 2026, elected and re-elected Lt Governor in 2030 and 2034, elected and re-elected Governor in 2038 and 2042.
Wes Moore is going to run for the next available US Senate seat in 2030 or 2036. (This is when Cardin is most likely to retire due to elder age.)
Brooke Lierman is going to run for Van Hollen’s seat in 2046. Van Hollen is likely to retire in 2046. Lierman will be completing 2 terms as Comptroller,2 terms as Lt Governor, and 2 terms as Governor.
Who wins the 2024 MD US Senate Democratic Primary Election?(Alsobrooks,Raskin,Sarbanes,Trone)
Alsobrooks
Prince George’s (466,000)
Baltimore City (305,000)
Total(771,000)
Raskin
Montgomery(415,000)
Carroll(34,000)
Charles(75,000)
St Mary’s(26,000)
Calvert(24,000)
Total(574,000)
Trone
Frederick(78,000)
Washington(32,000)
Allegany(12,000)
Garrett(4,000)
Total(126,000)
Sarbanes
Baltimore(312,000)
Anne Arundel(176,000)
Howard(122,000)
Harford(66,000)
Total(676,000) Baltimore Suburbs
Eastern Shore
Caroline(6,000)
Cecil(21,000)
Dorchester(10,000)
Kent(6,000)
Queen Anne’s(11,000)
Somerset(6,000)
Talbot(11,000)
Wicomico(27,000)
Worcester(14,000)
Total(112,000)Eastern Shore
Total(676,000)Baltimore Suburbs
Total(788,000)Sarbanes Total
1)Sarbanes
2)Alsobrooks
3)Raskin
4)Trone
Sarbanes(788,000)
Alsobrooks(771,000)
Raskin(700,000)
Sarbanes(788,000)
Western MD(160,000)
Southern MD(125,000)
Total(1,073,000)
Alsobrooks(771,000)
Montgomery(415,000)
Total(1,186,000)
Sarbanes(788,000)
Baltimore City(305,000)
Total(1,093,000)
Raskin(700.000)
Prince George’s(466,000)
Total(1,166,000)
Raskin(1,488,000)
Alsobrooks(771,000)
Alsobrooks(1,186,000)
Charles(75,000)
Howard(122,000)
Total(1,383,000)
Trone(126,000)
Eastern Shore(112,000)238,000
Anne Arundel(176,000)414,000
Baltimore(312,000)726,000
Harford(66,000)792,000
Carroll(34,000)826,000
St Mary’s(26,000)852,000
Calvert (24,000)876,000
Sarbanes wins a 4 way race.
Sarbanes wins a 3 way race against Alsobrooks and Raskin.
Sarbanes wins a 3 way race against Raskin and Trone.
Alsobrooks wins a 3 way race against Sarbanes and Trone.
Raskin wins a 3 way race against Alsobrooks and Trone.
Alsobrooks wins a 2 way race against Sarbanes.
Alsobrooks wins a 2 way races against Trone.
Raskin wins a 2 way race against Alsobrooks.
Raskin wins a 2 way race against Sarbanes.
Raskin wins a 2 way race against Trone.
Sarbanes wins 2 way race against Trone.
Henry Cuellar for the 2024 TX US Senate Election!
Henry Cuellar has to give up his TX-28th CD US House seat if he decides to run for the US Senate. The TX-28th CD US House seat will go to Jessica Cisneros.
If Cuellar defeats Cruz, it is great news.
If Cuellar does not defeat Cruz it is no big deal as long as Cuellar is no longer in the US House.
Democratic US House members such as Allred,Castro,Escobar,Fletcher,Gonzalez,and Veasey should stay in the US House instead of running for an uphill battle US Senate Race.
Who wins the 2024 MD US Senate Democratic Primary Election matchup between Raskin and Sarbanes?
Raskin will win
Western MD Counties
Garrett
Allegany
Washington
DC Metro Counties
Frederick
Montgomery
Prince George’s
Southern MD Counties
Charles
St Mary’s
Calvert.
Sarbanes will win
Eastern Shore Counties
Caroline
Cecil
Dorchester
Kent
Queen Anne’s
Somerset
Talbot
Wicomico
Worcester
Baltimore Metro Counties
Harford
Anne Arundel
Howard
Carroll
Baltimore
Baltimore City.
Angela Alsobrooks should be the 2024 MD Democratic US Senate Nominee if Cardin decides to retire.
1)1st black US Senator of the state of MD.
2) 2nd female US Senator of the state of MD after Barbara Mikulski.
3) 2 term Prince George’s County Attorney and 2 term Prince George’s County Executive.
Prince George’s County has a population of over 950,000 which is the 2nd most populated county in MD.
In a 4 way primary between Alsobrooks,Sarbanes,Raskin,and Trone.
Alsobrooks base is Prince George’s County, and Baltimore City. Both of those areas have the most black population.
Sarbanes base is Anne Arundel County,Baltimore County,Harford County,and Howard County.
Raskin’s base is Montgomery County, Frederick County, and Carroll County.
Trone’s base is Western MD, Eastern MD, and Southern MD.
Alsobrooks
Prince George’s - 466,000
Baltimore City- 306,000
772,000
Sarbanes
Baltimore- 312,000
Anne Arundel- 176,000
Howard- 123,000
Harford-66,000
677,000
Raskin
Montgomery- 416,000
Frederick- 78,000
Carroll- 34,000
528,000
Trone
Allegany-12,000
Calvert-25,000
Caroline-7,000
Cecil-21,000
Charles-75,000
Dorchester-10,000
Garrett-4,000
Kent-6,000
Queen Anne’s-12,000
Somerset-6,000
St Mary’s-26,000
Talbot-11,000
Washington-32,000
Wicomico-27,000
Worcester-14,000
288,000
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