nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's Journal2018 US House Election-Democrats guide to a majority.
If Democrats win the Special Elections in GA-6,MT,and SC-5, Democrats need a net gain of 21 seats.
Democrats could lose GA-6,MN-1,MT,and SC-5, Democrats need to win 25 Republican held Districts.
1)AZ-2
2)CA-10
3)CA-21
4)CA-25
5)CA-39
6)CA-48
7)CA-49
8)CO-6
9)FL-26
10)FL-27
11)IA-1
12)IA-3
13)ME-2
14)MN-2
15)MN-3
16)NE-2
17)NJ-7
18)NY-19
19)NY-22
20)NY-24
21)PA-6
22)PA-8
23)PA-16
24)TX-23
25)VA-10
Jon Ossoff
If Jon Ossoff
wins the June 2017 Runoff election against Karen Handel
wins re-election in 2018 and 2020
If the Republicans
win the 2018 Georgia Governors Race
retain their majority in the GA State Legislature
Will GA-6 get gerrymandered into a Solid Republican district during the 2022 redistricting?
2018 US Senate Election cycle could be like the 2002 US Senate Election cycle.
In 2002- Bush's first midterm, Republicans picked up GA (Chambliss-R unseated Cleland-D),MN (Coleman-R replaced Wellstone-D),and MO special (Talent-R unseated Carnahan-D). Democrats picked up AR (Pryor unseated Tim Hutchinson). +2R.
In 2018-Trump's first midterm, I am predicting that Democrats will pick up AZ (Sinema-D unseats Flake-R) and NV (Titus-D unseats Heller-R). +2D
Republicans could pick up IN,MO,MT,and ND. Democrats hold onto FL,MI,MN,NM,OH,PA,VA,WV,and WI.
2020 US Senate Election cycle will be more Democratic friendly than the 2018 US Senate Election cycle.
The number of purple/red state Democratic US Senators up for re-election in 2020 4
1)MI-Peters-D
2)MN-Franken-D
3)NH-Shaheen-D
4)VA-Warner-D
I expect all of these Democratic incumbents to win re-election or if it were an open seat, Democrats will hold onto all of these states.
Democrats could pick up CO,GA if Ossoff decides to run,ME-if Collins retires,MT-if Bullock-D run,NC,and TX-if Cornyn-R retires and Castro-D runs.
2018 Midterm Election-Democratic guide to majority in the Governorship and State Legislature.
State Legislatures in Blue and Weak Red States that Republicans have a majority.
AZ State House 25D 35R Democrats need a net gain of 6 seats.
AZ State Senate 13D 17R Democrats need a net gain of 3 seats.
CO State Senate 17D 18R Democrats need a net gain of 1 seat.
Democrats have a 37-28 seat majority in the CO State House.
CT State Senate 18D 18R Democrats need a net gain of 1 seat.
Democrats have a 78-71 seat majority in the CT State House.
FL State House 41D 79R Democrats need a net gain of 20 seats.
FL State Senate 15D 25R Democrats need a net gain of 6 seats.
GA State House 62D 118R Democrats need a net gain of 29 seats.
GA State Senate 18D 38R Democrats need a net gain of 11 seats.
IA State House 41D 59R Democrats need a net gain of 10 seats.
IA State Senate 20D 29R Democrats need a net gain of 6 seats.
ME State Senate 17D 18R Democrats need a net gain of 1 seat.
Democrats have a 77-72 seat majority in the ME State House.
MI State House 47D 63R Democrats need a net gain of 9 seats.
MI State Senate 11D 27R Democrats need a net gain of 9 seats.
MN State House 57D 77R Democrats need a net gain of 11 seats.
MN State Senate 33D 34R Democrats need a net gain of 1 seat.
NH State House 173D 226R Democrats need a net gain of 28 seats.
NH State Senate 10D 14R Democrats need a net gain of 3 seats.
NC State House 46D 74R Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats.
NC State Senate 15D 35R Democrats need a net gain of 11 seats.
OH State House 33D 66R Democrats need a net gain of 17 seats.
OH State Senate 9D 24R Democrats need a net gain of 8 seats.
PA State House 82D 121R Democrats need a net gain of 20 seats.
PA State Senate 16D 34R Democrats need a net gain of 10 seats.
TX State House 55D 95R Democrats need a net gain of 21 seats.
TX State Senate 11D 20R Democrats need a net gain of 5 seats.
VA State House 34D 66R Democrats need a net gain of 17 seats.
VA State Senate 19D 21R Democrats need a net gain of 2 seats.
WI State House 35D 64R Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats.
WI State Senate 13D 20R Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats.
Democrats have a shot at regaining control of the State Senate in AZ,CO,CT,ME,MN,NH,TX,VA,and WI.
Governors
Democrats pickup NJ and hold onto VA in 2017. 17D 32R 1I
2018
Democrats need a net gain of 8 seats.
Democrats hold onto CO,MN,and PA and pick up FL,IL,ME,MI,NV,NH (Hurt Sununu's chances of challenging Shaheen in 2020 or Hassan in 2022),NM and OH.
2018 Midterm Elections-Democratic Gains vs Republican Gains.
2018 Governors Race
Democratic Gain
FL-Andrew Gillum-D
IL-Chris Kennedy-D
ME-Michael Michaud-D
MI-Gretchen Whitmer-D
NV-Ross Miller-D
NM-Michelle Lujan Grisham-D
Republican Gain
None
23D 26R 1I
2018 US Senate Election
Democratic Gain
AZ-Kyrsten Sinema-D
NV-Dina Titus-D
Republican Gain
IN-Jackie Walorski-R
47D 51R 2I
2018 US House Races.
Democratic Gain
CA-10
CA-25
CA-49
CO-6
FL-26
GA-6
MN-2
NE-2
PA-8
TX-23
VA-10
Republican Gain
MN-1
NH-1
If there is a Democratic wave.
CA-21
CA-39
CA-48
FL-27
IA-1
IA-3
KS-3
MN-3
ME-2
NJ-7
NY-19
NY-22
NY-24
PA-6
PA-7
2017/2018 US Senate Election Ratings.
2017
AL
Solid Republican
Lean Republican if Bobby Bright-D is the Democratic Nominee.
2018
AZ
Lean Republican if Flake-R is the Republican Nominee.
Tossup if Flake-R is the Republican Nominee and Sinema-D is the Democratic Nominee.
Lean Democratic if Flake-R is not the Republican Nominee.
CA
Solid Democratic
CT
Solid Democratic
DE
Solid Democratic
FL
Likely Democratic
HI
Solid Democratic
IN
Tossup
Lean Democratic if Marlin Stutzman-R is the Republican nominee.
ME
Solid Independent
MD
Solid Democratic
MA
Solid Democratic
MI
Solid Democratic
MN
Solid Democratic
MS
Solid Republican
MO
Lean Democratic
MT
Lean Democratic
Tossup if Tim Fox-R is the Republican nominee.
NE
Solid Republican
Likely Republican if Brad Ashford-D is the Democratic Nominee
NV
Lean Republican
Tossup if Dina Titus-D is the Democratic Nominee
NJ
Solid Democratic
NM
Solid Democratic
NY
Solid Democratic
ND
Lean Democratic
Tossup if Kevin Cramer-R is the Republican Nominee
OH
Lean Democratic
PA
Likely Democratic
RI
Solid Democratic
TN
Sold Republican
TX
Lean Republican
UT
Solid Republican
Lean Republican if Jim Matheson-D is the Democratic Nominee.
VT
Solid Independent
VA
Likely Democratic
WA
Solid Democratic
WV
Lean Democratic
WI
Lean Democratic
WY
Solid Republican
Democrats pick up AZ and NV and hold onto IN,MT,and ND
+2D
2018 Midterm Elections
2018 Governors Race
Democratic Pick up
IL-Pritzker-D
MI-Whitmer-D
NV-Miller-D
NH-Marchand-D
NM-Lujan Grisham-D
Republican Pickup
None.
22D 27R 1I
2018 US Senate Race
Democratic Pickup
AZ-Synema-D
NV-Titus-D
Republican Pick up
None
48D 50R 2I
2018 US House Races
Democratic Pickup
AZ-2
CA-10
CA-21
CA-25
CA-39
CA-48
CA-49
CO-6
FL-26
GA-6
IA-1
IA-3
KS-3
ME-2
MN-2
MN-3
NE-2
NJ-7
NY-19
NY-22
NY-24
PA-6
PA-7
PA-8
PA-16
TX-7
TX-23
Democrats regain control of the US House.
2018 OH US Senate and Governors Race.
Sherrod Brown-D wins re-election to the US Senate in 2018 by a high single to low double digit margin. Democratic nominee for the 2018 OH Governors Race Betty Sutton or Richard Codray or Jennifer Brunner win in the general election. In 2020, Brown ends up being on the Democratic Presidential or Vice Presidential ticket. The 2020 Democratic Ticket wins. The Democratic Governor of OH appoint Brown's successor (Sutton,Codray,or Brunner) to the US Senate. Democrats winning the OH Governors Race could take away Republicans advantage in Congressional redistricting.
Former US Surgeon General and Alabama native Regina Benjamin should get recruited by the
national and state Democratic party to make a sacrificial lamb run for the 2017 AL US Senate Special Election and here is why.
Benjamin was an African American member of Obama Administration and served as Vice Admiral in the US Public Health Service Corp. Nominating and Supporting Benjamin for the US Senate will convince the American public that the AL Democratic Party politicians and voters are not the party of George Wallace. It could also force the Donald Trumps and Jeff Sessions of the world to double down on their arrogance and bigotry. Benjamin wears a military uniform and received an award from the pope despite her support for abortion rights. Win or lose, Benjamin needs to get over 41 percent of the popular vote. This will be an improvement from Clinton's performance in AL.
2017/2018 US Senate Election-Top Tier Democratic challengers for Republican held US Senate seats.
2017
AL (Strange-R)
Former Governor Jim Folsom Jr. (1993-1995)
Former US Representative AL-2CD Bobby Bright (2009-2011)
Democrats could win or come close to winning the AL US Senate Race if Republicans have a divisive primary and nominate the least conservative candidate causing conservatives to stay home or vote third party in the general election or the most conservative candidate gets nominated causing moderate Republicans and Independents to vote Democratic.
2018
AZ (Flake-R)
US Representative AZ-9CD Kyrsten Sinema
US Representative AZ-7CD Ruben Gallego
Democrats will win AZ based on two factors- Flake loses in the Republican primary causing Independents to vote Democratic or Flake wins the Republican primary causing conservatives to stay home or vote third party.
MS (Wicker-R)
Former Attorney General Mike Moore (1988-2004)
Current Attorney General Jim Hood.
This race depends on whether Wicker face a tough Republican primary challenge. If Wicker faces a tough Republican primary challenge, Moore or Hood have a strong chance of winning MS US Senate Race.
NE (Fischer-R)
Former US Representative NE-2 Brad Ashford (2015-2017)
This race is Fischer's to lose.
NV (Heller-R)
US Representative NV-1 Dina Titus
US Representative NV-3 Jacky Rosen
US Representative NV-4 Ruben Kihuen
Democrats will win the NV US Senate Race.
TN (Corker-R)
US Representative TN-5 Jim Cooper
US Representative TN-9 Steve Cohen
This is Corker's race to lose.
TX (Cruz-R)
US Representative TX-16 Beto O'Rourke
US Representative TX-20 Joaquin Castro
This is the first time since 2002(Ron Kirk) TX Democrats will nominate a top tier candidate for the US Senate. 2018 will be more Democratic friendly than 2002.
UT (Hatch-R)
Former US Representative UT-2/UT-4 Jim Matheson (2001-2015)
Matheson could defeat Hatch, Romney, Chaffetz or Love.
Hatch is too old, Romney is a carpetbagger,Chaffetz is too right wing for the UT GOP establishment, Love will cause the extreme conservatives to stay home or vote third party.
WY (Barrasso-R)
Former Governor Dave Freudenthal (2002-2010)
Barrasso is favored to win but the NRSC and RNC will have to waste resources in WY.
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