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April 8, 2017

US Supreme Court.

The strict conservative justices are Gorsuch,Alito,Roberts, and Thomas. 4
The liberal justices are Ginsburg, Breyer, Kagan, and Sotomayor. 4
Kennedy is the swing vote.
Kennedy,Ginsburg,and Breyer cannot leave before the November 2020 elections.

April 8, 2017

2018 US Senate Race-Republican held US Senate seats Democrats need to win in order to get back in

the majority in the US Senate on January 2019.
Democrats are safe in CA,CT,DE,HI,MD,MA,MN,NY,RI,VT,and WA.
Democrats are strongly favored in FL,ME,MI,NJ,NM,PA,VA, WV, and WV.
Democrats are slightly favored in IN,MO,MT, and OH.
Democrats have a 50-50 chance of holding onto ND-assuming Cramer-R runs.
Democrats need to win at least 4 Republican held seats
AZ-Sinema-D runs and gets the Democratic nominaton, Flake-R loses in the Republican primary.
NV-Miller-D and/or Marshall-D runs and gets the Democratic nomination.
TX-O'Rourke-D or Castro-D need Cruz-R to self destruct.
UT-Matheson-D runs and gets the Democratic nomination, Chaffetz-R runs and gets the Republican nomination, McMullin runs as an Independent stealing the moderate Republican vote.
MS-Hood-D runs and gets the Democratic nomination, Wicker-R loses in the Republican primary.

April 7, 2017

2018 US Senate Election-Top Tier Democratic candidates vs Top Tier Republican candidates

AL (Strange-R)
Republican candidates
Strange-R
Aderholt-R
Brooks-R
Palmer-R
Roby-R
Democratic candidates
Crumpton-D
Bedford-D
Bright-D
Solid Republican w/Crumpton-D,Likely Republican w/Bedford-D,Lean Republican w/Bright-D
AZ (Flake-R)
Republican candidates
Flake-R
Ward-R
Salmon-R
Schweikert-R
Democratic candidates
Kelly-D
Kirkpatrick-D
Sinema-D
Tossup w/Flake-R,Lean Democratic w/Salmon-R or Schweikert-R,and Likely Democratic w/Ward-R
Flake-R would win against Kirkpatrick-D but lose against Kelly-D and/or Sinema-D
CA (Feinstein-D)
Democratic candidates
Feinstein-D
Sanchez-D
Sherman-D
Swalwell-D
Republican candidates
Faulconer-R
Swearingen-R
Solid Democratic
CT (Murphy-D)
Democratic candidate
Murphy-D
Republican candidates
McMahon-R
Rowland-R when he gets out of prison
Solid Democratic
DE (Carper-D)
Democratic candidates
Carper-D
If Carper retires
Markell-D
Blunt Rochester-D
Denn-D
Republican candidates
Boyce-R
Simpler-R
O'Donnell-R
Solid Democratic
FL (Nelson-D)
Democratic candidate
Nelson-D
Republican candidates
Scott-R
Jolly-R
DeSantis-R
Rooney-R
Lean Democratic w/Scott-R,Likely Democratic w/Jolly-R,DeSantis-R,and/or Rooney-R
HI (Hirono-D)
Democratic candidate
Hirono-D
Republican candidate
Lingle-R
Djou-R
Solid Democratic
IN (Donnelly-D)
Democratic candidate
Donnelly-D
Republican candidate
Hollingsworth-R
Messer-R
Rokita-R
Stutzman-R
Walorski-R
Tossup
ME (King-I/D)
Democratic candidate
King-D
Republican candidate
LePage-R
Likely Democratic
MD (Cardin-D)
Democratic candidate
Cardin-D
If Cardin-D retires
Sarbanes-D
Delaney-D
Brown-D
Edwards-D
Republican candidates
Harris-R
Steele-R
Solid Democratic w/Harris-R,Likely Democratic w/Steele-R
MA (Warren-D)
Democratic candidate
Warren-D
Republican candidate
Healey-R
Solid Democratic
MI (Stabenow-D)
Democratic candidate
Stabenow-D
Republican candidates
Snyder-R
Amash-R
Miller-R
Rogers-R
Upton-R
Lean Democratic w/Snyder-D,Likely Democratic w/Amash-R,Miller-R,Rogers-R, and/or Upton-R
MN (Klobuchar-D)
Democratic candidate
Klobuchar-D
Republican candidate
Paulsen-R
Bachmann-R
Likely Democratic w/Paulsen-R,Solid Democratic w/Bachmann-R
MS (Wicker-R)
Republican candidates
Wicker-R
McDaniel-R
Democratic candidates
Hood-D
Childers-D
Likely Republican w/Wicker-R,Tossup w/McDaniel-R
Hood-D can win against McDaniel-R
MO (McCaskill-D)
Democratic candidate
McCaskill-D
Republican candidate
Graves-R
Hartzler-R
Long-R
Wagner-R
Lean Democratic
MT (Tester-D)
Democratic candidate
Tester-D
Republican candidate
Racicot-R
Zinke-R
Fox-R
Lean Democratic
NE (Fischer-R)
Republican candidate
Fischer-R
Democratic candidate
Ashford-D
Solid Republican
NV (Heller-R)
Republican candidate
Heller-R
Democratic candidates
Horsford-D
Kihuen-D
If Kihuen-D runs, Horsford-D runs for NV-4 US House seat, defeats Hardy-R in a rematch.
Marshall-D
Miller-D
Rosen-D
Titus-D
Lean Republican w/Horsford-D,Tossup w/Kihuen-D,Rosen-D,and/or Titus-D,Lean Democratic w/Miller-D and/or Marshall-D
NJ (Menendez-D)
Democratic candidates
Andrews-D
Norcross-D
Pallone-D
Holt-D
Republican candidates
Christie-R
Guadagno-R
Kean-R
McArthur-R
Likely Democratic
NM (Heinrich-D)
Democratic candidate
Heinrich-D
Republican candidate
Martinez-R
Pearce-R
Wilson-R
Lean Democratic w/Martinez-R,Likely Democratic w/Wilson-R,Solid Democratic w/Pearce-R
NY (Gillibrand-D)
Democratic candidate
Gillibrand-D
Republican candidate
Gibson-R
Solid Democratic
ND (Heitkamp-D)
Democratic candidate
Heitkamp-D
Republican candidate
Cramer-R
Tossup
OH (Brown-D)
Democratic candidate
Brown-D
Republican candidates
Mandel-R
Tiberi-R
Lean Democratic, Tossup if Kasich-R decides to run.
PA (Casey-D)
Democratic candidate
Casey-D
Republican candidate
Barletta-R
Marino-R
Likely Democratic
RI (Whitehouse-D)
Democratic candidate
Whitehouse-D
Republican candidate
Carcieri-R
Solid Democratic
TN (Corker-R)
Republican candidate
Corker-R
Crim-R
Halsam-R
Democratic candidate
Gray Sasser-D,son of the former TN US Senator
Solid Republican with/Corker-R and/or Halsam-R,Tossup w/Crim-R
TX (Cruz-R)
Republican candidate
Cruz-R
Bush-R George P
Gohmert-R
Hensarling-R
Democratic candidate
O'Rourke-D
Castro-D
Lean Republican w/Cruz-R and/or Bush-R,Tossup w/Gohmert-R and/or Hensarling-R
A Gohmert-R primary victory could give Democrats a greater than 50 percent chance of winning this seat.
UT (Hatch-R)
Republican candidate
Hatch-R
Romney-R
Huntsman-R
Leavitt-R
Chaffetz-R
Love-R
Democratic candidate
Matheson-D
McAdams-D
Likely Republican but the race could narrow if McMullin-I runs and Chaffetz-R wins the Republican Nomination.
VT (Sanders-I/D)
Democratic candidate
Sanders-I/D
Republican candidate
Douglas-R
Solid Democratic
VA (Kaine-D)
Democratic candidate
Kaine-D
Republican candidate
Brat-R
Cantor-R
Comstock-R
Forbes-R
Taylor-R
Wittman-R
Ingraham-R
Fiorina-R
Likely Democratic
WA (Cantwell-D)
Democratic candidate
Cantwell-D
Republican candidate
Herrera Beutler-R
Reichert-R
Solid Democratic
WV (Manchin-D)
Democratic candidate
Manchin-D
Republican candidate
Jenkins-R
McKinley-R
Mooney-R
Lean Democratic
WI (Baldwin-D)
Democratic candidate
Baldwin-D
Republican candidate
Gallagher-R
Grothmann-R
Likely Democratic
WY (Barraso-R)
Republican candidate
Barraso-R
Democratic candidate
Freudenthal-D
Democrats will hold onto every Democratic held US Senate seat including IN,MO,MT,and ND and pick up AZ and NV, TX is too close to call.

April 6, 2017

Democrats have a better chance of regaining control of the US Senate in 2020.

In 2018, Democrats will hold onto every Democratic held US Senate seat but IN(Donnelly-D)and ND(Heitkamp-D). Donnelly-IN and Heitkamp-ND face top tier GOP challengers. Democrats will end up picking up AZ (Sinema-D) and NV (Titus-D).
In 2020, Democrats will hold onto every Democratic held US Senate seat including MI (Peters-D),MN (Franken-D),NH (Shaheen-D),and VA (Warner-D) and pick up CO (Polis-D),GA (Ossoff-D),NC (Ross-D) and TX (Castro-D) if Cornyn-R retires. Democrats will also win the 2020 United States Presidential Election.

April 5, 2017

2018 US Senate Election rating-if Democrats nominate top tier candidates in every state.

AL (Strange-R)Roger Bedford-D
Likely Republican
AZ (Flake-R)Kyrsten Sinema-D
Tossup w/Flake-R,Lean Democratic w/Kelli Ward-R
CA (Feinstein-D)Dianne Feinstein-D and/or Loretta Sanchez-D open primary and runoff
Solid Democratic
CT (Murphy-D)Chris Murphy-D
Solid Democratic
DE (Carper-D)Tom Carper-D or Jack Markell-D
Solid Democratic
FL (Nelson-D)Bill Nelson-D
Likely Democratic
HI (Hirono-D)Mazie Hirono-D
Solid Democratic
IN (Donnelly-D)Joe Donnelly-D
Tossup
ME (King-I)Angus King-I/D
Tossup if Democrats field their own candidate and LePage-R runs.
Likely Independent/Democratic if Democrats do not field their own candidate and LePage-R runs.
MD (Cardin-D)Ben Cardin-D or John Sarbanes-D
Solid Democratic
MA (Warren-D)Elizabeth Warren-D
Solid Democratic
MI (Stabenow-D)Debbie Stabenow-D
Solid Democratic
MN (Klobuchar-D)Amy Klobuchar-D
Solid Democratic
MS (Wicker-R)Travis Childers-D
Likely Republican
MO (McCaskill-D)Claire McCaskill-D
Lean Democratic
MT (Tester-D)Jon Tester-D
Lean Democratic
NE (Fischer-R)Brad Ashford-D
Likely Republican
NV (Heller-R)Ross Miller-D or Kate Marshall-D
Tossup
NJ (Menendez-D)Richard Codey-D
Solid Democratic
NM(Heinrich-D)Martin Heinrich-D
Lean Democratic w Susana Martinez-R,Solid Democratic w Steve Pearce-R
NY (Gillibrand-D)Kirsten Gillibrand-D
Solid Democratic
ND(Heitkamp-D)Heidi Heitkamp-D
Tossup
OH (Brown-D)Sherrod Brown-D
Lean Democratic
PA(Casey-D)Bob Casey jr.-D
Likely Democratic
RI (Whitehouse-D)Sheldon Whitehouse-D
Solid Democratic
TN (Corker-R)Andy Berke-D
Solid Republican
TX (Cruz-R)Beto O'Rourke-D
Lean Republican
UT (Hatch-R)Jim Matheson-D
Likely Republican
VT (Sanders-I/D)Bernie Sanders-I/D
Solid Independent/Democratic
VA (Kaine-D)Tim Kaine-D
Lean Democratic w/Gillespie-R,Likely Democratic w/o Gillespie-R
WA (Cantwell-D)Maria Cantwell-D
Solid Democratic
WV(Manchin-D)Joe Manchin-D
Lean Democratic
WI (Baldwin-D)Tammy Baldwin-D
Likely Democratic
WY (Barrasso-R)Dave Freudenthal-D
Solid Republican
If there is a Democratic wave, Democrats hold onto IN and ND and pick up AZ and NV and TX

April 4, 2017

Democrats have a better chance of regaining control of the US Senate in 2020 than in 2018 because in

2020 Democrats have fewer vulnerable seats to defend.
The vulnerable Democratic held seats up in 2020 are MI (Peters-D),MN (Franken-D),NH (Shaheen-D),and VA (Warner-D). All of these US Senators will end up getting re-elected due to the 2020 Democratic Presidential nominee's coattails.
Republicans have more vulnerable seats to defend in 2020 than in 2018
The vulnerable Republican held seats up in 2020 are CO (Gardner-R),GA (Perdue-R),ME (Collins-R)-Democrats need to target Collins,NC (Tillis-R),and TX (Cornyn-R).
Gardner-CO loses to Polis-D or Perlmutter-D
Perdue-GA loses to Ossoff-D or Michelle Nunn-D
Collins-ME loses in the primary to LePage-R who then loses in the general election to Pingree-D
Tillis-NC loses to Debra Ross-D
Cornyn-TX loses to O'Rourke-D or Joaquin Castro-D
+5D
2018
Democrats have to defend FL (Nelson-D),IN (Donnelly-D),MO (McCaskill-D),MT (Tester-D),ND (Heitkamp-D),OH (Brown-D),VA (Kaine-D),WV (Manchin-D),and WI (Baldwin-D). All but Donnelly-IN and Heitkamp-ND get re-elected -2D
Republicans have to defend AZ (Flake-R),NV (Heller-R)and TX (Cruz-R). Democrats will pick up AZ and NV.
48D 52R
2020 Democrats pick up CO and NC and win the 2020 US Presidential Election.
2022-The most vulnerable Democratic held seats are CO (Bennet-D),NV (Cortez Masto-D),and NH (Hassan-D).
The most vulnerable Republican held seats are AZ-open,FL (Rubio-R),GA-open,NC-open,PA-(Toomey-R),and WI (Johnson-R)

April 3, 2017

US Senate committee chairs if Democrats regain control of the US Senate in 2018

Agriculture-Stabenow-MI
Appropriation-Leahy-VT
Armed Services-Reed-RI
Banking-Brown-OH
Budget-Sanders-VT
Commerce-Nelson-FL
Energy-Cantwell-WA
Environment-Carper-DE,if Carper decides to retire,Whitehouse-RI
Finance-Wyden-OR
Foreign Relations-Cardin-MD,if Cardin decides to retire,-Murphy-CT
Health-Murray-WA
Homeland Security-McCaskill-MO
Judiciary-Feinstein-CA
Rules-Klobuchar-MN
Small Business-Shaheen-NH
Veterans Affairs-Tester-MT
Indian Affairs-Udall-NM
Ethics-Coons-DE
Intelligence-Warner-VA
Aging-Casey-PA
International Narcotics Control-Feinstein-CA

April 2, 2017

2018 US Senate Election Rating

AL (Solid Republican) If Strange-R were to be defeated, it will be in the Republican primary.
AZ (Lean Democratic) Flake-R loses in the Republican primary to Ward-R. Ward-R loses in the general to Sinema-D+1D
CA (Solid Democratic)If Feinstein-D were to be defeated it will be by another Democrat that finishes in 2nd place in the open primary.Feinstein-D loses in November election to the Democrat that finished in 2nd place in the open primary.
CT (Solid Democratic)Murphy-D is strongly favored to win in the primary and general.
DE (Solid Democratic)Carper-D is a likely retiree. If that were to happen look for Markell-D to replace him.
FL (Lean Democratic)Nelson-D faces Scott-R.
HI (Solid Democratic)Hirono-D is strongly favored to win in the primary and general.
IN (Lean Democratic)A divisive Republican primary will help Donnelly-D in the general.
ME (Lean Independent)King-I will have an easier time defeating LePage-R if Democrats don't field their own candidate and endorse King-I in the general.
MD (Solid Democratic)Cardin-D is a likely retiree. If that were to happen look for Sarbanes-D to replace him.
MA (Solid Democratic)Warren-D should face Tom Brady-R in the general.
MI (Solid Democratic)Stabenow-D is strongly favored to win in the primary and general. The only way the race becomes competitive is if Snyder-R runs.
MN (Solid Democratic)Klobuchar-D is strongly favored to win in the primary and general.
MS (Solid Republican)If Wicker-R were to be defeated, it will be in the Republican primary.
MO (Lean Democratic)A divisive Republican primary will help McCaskill-D in the general.
MT (Lean Democratic)Tester-D will avoid a top tier Republican opponent ie Racicot-R or Rehberg-R
NE(Solid Republican)Fischer-R is strongly favored to win in the primary and general.
NV (Tossup)Heller-R loses if Democrats nominate a top tier candidate and Trump's approval rating drops below 35 percent. +2D
NJ (Solid Democratic)Menendez-D is likely to resign early 2018. Democrats will hold onto this seat.
NM (Likely Democratic)If Heinrich-D faces Martinez-R,Lean Democratic,If Heinrich-D faces Pearce-R,Solid Democratic.
NY (Solid Democratic)Gillibrand-D is strongly favored to win in the primary and general.
ND (Tossup)Cramer-R is the only Republican candidate that could defeat Heitkamp-D.
OH (Lean Democratic)Brown-D faces Mandel-R
PA (Solid Democratic)Casey-D is strongly favored to win in the primary and general.
RI (Solid Democratic)Whitehouse-D is strongly favored to win in the primary and general.
TN (Solid Republican)If Corker-R were to be defeated, it will be in the Republican primary.
TX (Lean Republican) If Cruz-R faces O'Rourke-D in the general. Lean Democratic, If Cruz-R loses in the primary to Gohmert-R.
UT (Likely Republican)Hatch-R loses in the primary, whoever is the Republican nominee faces McMullin-I and Matheson-D in the general. Matheson has a stronger chance of winning in the general if Chaffetz-R is the Republican nominee.
VT (Solid Independent)Sanders-I is strongly favored to win in the primary and general.
VA (Likely Democratic)Kaine-D faces Gillespie-R who is likely to lose in the 2017 VA Governors Race. If Gillespie-R wins the 2017 VA Governors Race, Fiorina-R or Ingraham-R will be the Republican nominee.
WA (Solid Democratic)Cantwell-D is strongly favored to win in the primary and general.
WV (Lean Democratic)If Manchin-D is the Democratic nominee, Lean Republican if Goodwin-D is the Democratic nominee.
WI (Likely Democratic)A divisive Republican primary will help Baldwin-D in the general.
WY (Solid Republican)Barrasso-R is strongly favored to win in the primary and general.
If Heitkamp-ND loses in the general and Manchin-WV loses in the primary, The general election victories of Mark Kelly or Kyrsten Sinema-AZ, Kate Marshall or Ross Miller-NV, Beto O'Rourke or Joaquin Castro-TX, Jim Matheson-UT, and Bedford-AL will be needed for Democrats to regain control of the US Senate.

April 1, 2017

2018 US Senate Election Most Vulnerable to Most Safe.

Democratic Held US Senate Seats.
Tossup
IN-Donnelly-D
MO-McCaskill-D
ND-Heitkamp-D
Lean Democratic
FL-Nelson-D
WV-Manchin-D
OH-Brown-D
MT-Tester-D
WI-Baldwin-D
Likely Democratic
ME-King-I
PA-Casey-D
VA-Kaine-D
MI-Stabenow-D
NJ-Menendez-D
MN-Klobuchar-D
Solid Democratic
NM-Heinrich-D
WA-Cantwell-D
CT-Murphy-D
DE-Carper-D
CA-Feinstein-D
MA-Warren-D
MD-Cardin-D
RI-Whitehouse-D
NY-Gillibrand-D
VT-Sanders-I
HI-Hirono-D
Republican Held Seats
Tossup
NV-Heller-R
Lean Republican
AZ-Flake-R
Likely Republican
TX-Cruz-R
Solid Republican
MS-Wicker-R
NE-Fischer-R
TN-Corker-R
AL-Strange-R
UT-Hatch-R
WY-Barrasso-R
Worse case scenario for Democrats is losing IN,MO,and ND -3
Best case scenario for Democrats is holding onto IN,MO,and ND and picking up NV and AZ, TX is an uphill battle for Democrats.

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