nkpolitics1212
nkpolitics1212's Journal2020 US Presidential and US Senate Race
States that will vote Republican for President and US Senate.
AL
AK
AR
GA
ID
IA
KS
KY
LA
MS
MT
NE
NC
OK
SC
SD
TN
TX
WV
WY
States that will vote Democratic for President and US Senate
CO
DE
IL
ME-if Collins retires or loses in the primary
MA
MI
MN
NH
NJ
NM
OR
RI
VA
In 2018-Democrats will hold onto all of the US Senate Races in Trump states and pick up one or both of the AZ seats and NV.
2018 US House Elections-seats Democrats need to win to regain control of the US House.
Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats. They need to pick up
1)AZ-2 (McSally-R)
2)CA-10 (Denham-R)
3)CA-25 (Knight-R)
4)CA-48 (Rohrabacher-R)
5)CA-49 (Issa-R)
6)CO-6 (Coffman-R)
7)FL-26 (Curbelo-R)
8)FL-27 (OPEN-Ros Lehtinen-R)
9)MN-2 (Lewis-R)
10)NE-2 (Bacon-R)
11)NY-19 (Faso-R)
12)TX-23 (Hurd-R)
13)VA-10 (Comstock-R)
14)GA-6 (Handel-R)
15)IA-1 (Blum-R)
16)KS-3 (Yoder-R)
17)MN-3 (Paulsen-R)
18)NY-22 (Tenney-R)
19)PA-8 (Fitzpatrick-R)
20)CA-39 (Royce-R)
21)IA-3 (Young-R)
22)MT-AL (Gianforte-R)
23)NJ-7 (Lance-R)
24)NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen-R)
25)PA-6 (Costello-R)
Democrats need to hold onto
1)AZ-1 (O'Halleran-D)
2)MN-1 (OPEN-Walz-D)
3)NV-3 (OPEN-Rosen-D)
4)NH-1 (Shea Porter-D)
5)NJ-5 (Gottheimer-D)
Could a Democrat win 2017 AL US Senate Race like Scott Brown- R winning the 2010 MA US Senate Race?
Strange-R or Moore-R pull a Martha Coakley.
California could have two new US Senator in 2021.
Kamala Harris-D becomes President or Vice President
Dianne Feinstein-D resigns or passes away.
Who gets appointed to the Harris seat and Who gets appointed to the Feinstein seat?
2018,2020,and 2022 US Senate Elections-Highly Vulnerable Democratic and Republican held seats.
Highly Vulnerable Democratic held US Senate seats
2018
IN-Donnelly-D vs Messer-R
MO-McCaskill-D vs Hawley-R
MT-Tester-D vs Rosendale-R
ND-Heitkamp-D vs Cramer-R
WV-Manchin-D vs Morrisey-R
2020
No Democratic Held US Senate seat up in 2020 is highly vulnerable.
Warner-VA,Shaheen-NH,Franken-MN,and Peters-MI will win by a wider margin than in 2014.
2022-If a Democrat is in the White House.
CO-Bennet-D
NV-Cortez Masto-D
NH-Hassan-D
CO and NV will become more Democratic after 2020 due to increasing Hispanic population.
2022-If Trump or Pence is in the White House.
None of the Democratic held US Senate seat up in 2022 is highly vulnerable.
Bennet-CO,Cortez Masto-NV,and Hassan-NH will win by a wider margin than in 2016.
Highly Vulnerable Republican Held US Senate seats
2018
AZ-Flake-R vs Stanton-D
NV-Heller-R vs Rosen-D
AZ Special- Whoever Governor Ducey-R appoints vs Sinema-D
2020
AZ Special- Whoever Governor Ducey-R appoints vs Sinema-D
CO-Gardner-R vs Hickenlooper,Perlmutter,Hancock,or Johnston-D. Polis-D will be Governor, Kennedy-D will be LT Governor.
ME-if Collins-R retires or loses in the primary.
MT-Daines-R vs Bullock-D
NC-Thillis-R vs Foxx or Stein-D
TX-if Cornyn-R retires, One of the Castro brothers run.
2022-If a Democrat is in the White House
AZ-if a Republican wins the 2018 or 2020 special vs Sinema or Gallego-D
GA-if Isakson-R retires and Democrats nominate Reed,Abrams,Evans,Nunn,or Carter-D
NC-if Burr-R retires.
2022-If Trump or Pence is in the White House
AZ-If a Republican wins the 2018 or 2020 special vs Sinema or Gallego-D
FL-Rubio-R vs Crist-D
NC-if Burr-R retires.
PA-Toomey-R vs Wolf or Boyle-D
WI-Johnson-R vs Pocan-D
In 2018-Democrats lose IN and MO and pick up AZ and NV.
In 2020-Democrats will pick up AZ,CO,MT,and NC -Democrats regain control of the US Senate.
In 2022-Democrats will pick up FL.
WV Governor Justice made a mistake switching parties and here is why.
Justice has to first win in the Republican primary before he ends on the November General Election ballot in 2020.
What are Justice's chances in winning in the Republican primary against a Tea Party Republican candidate in West Virginia?
WV Republican primary voters are more conservative than the National Republican primary voters.
Justice was better off remaining as a Zell Miller/Joe Manchin Democrat.
Is Justice more or less conservative than Shelly Moore Capito?
2018 US Senate Election Ratings.
Solid Democratic-unopposed
HI-Hirono-D 24D
Solid Democratic-Democrat vs Democrat matchup in November.
CA-Feinstein-D vs Garcetti-D??? 25D
WA-Cantwell-D vs Ferguson-D 26D
CA and WA both have open primaries, 1st and 2nd place finisher faces each other in November.
Solid Democratic-sacrificial lamb GOP challenger
CT-Murphy-D vs Hwang-R??? 27D
DE-Carper-D vs Boyce-R 28D
ME-King-I/D vs Brakey-R 29D
MD-Cardin-D vs Faddis-R 30D
MA-Warren-D vs Diehl-R 31D
MN-Klobuchar-D vs Newberger-R 32D
NY-Gillibrand-D vs Webber-R 33D
RI-Whitehouse-D vs Flanders-R 34D
VT-Sanders-I/D vs Milne-R 35D
Likely Democratic
NJ-Norcross-D vs MacArthur-R 36D
NM-Heinrich-D vs Sanchez-R 37D
VA-Kaine-D vs Stewart-R 38D
Lean Democratic
FL-Nelson-D vs Scott-R 39D
MI-Stabenow-D vs Kid Rock-R 40D
NV-Heller-R vs Rosen-D 41D
PA-Casey-D vs Barletta-D 42D
WI-Baldwin-D vs Nicholson-R 43D
Tossup Democratic
AZ Special (Sinema-D)44D
IN-Donnelly-D vs Messer-R 45D
MO-McCaskill-D vs Hawley-R 46D
MT-Tester-D vs Rosendale-R 47D
ND-Heitkamp-D vs Cramer-R 48D
OH-Brown-D vs Mandel-R 49D
WV-Manchin-D vs Morrisey-R 50D
Solid Republican-unopposed
NE-Fischer-R 44R
WY-Barrasso-R 45R
Solid Republican-sacrificial lamb DEM challenger
MS-Wicker-R vs Bohren-D 46R
TN-Corker-R vs Mackler-D 47R
Likely Republican
UT-Hatch-R vs Wilson-D vs McMullin-I 48R
Lean Republican
TX-Cruz-R vs O'Rourke-D 49R
Tossup Republican
AZ-Flake-R vs Stanton-D 50R
Sheriff Joe Arpaio is found guilty of criminal contempt -faces 6 months in jail.
Arpaio should be forced to wear a pink bra and thong.
2018 US Senate Race if Democrats target every Republican held seat
AZ-Flake-R
Kelly-D,Sinema-D,or Stanton-D, Kelly-D should run against Flake-R, Sinema-D should run for the McCain seat-assuming there is a special election in 2018, Stanton-D should run for Governor against Ducey-R. Democrats could pick up both US Senate seats and Governorship in AZ
MS-Wicker-R
Moore-D or Hood-D
NE-Fischer-R
NV-Heller-R
Rosen-D. Democratic Pickup
TN-Corker-R
Berke-D
TX-Cruz-R
O'Rourke-D
UT-Hatch-R
Matheson-D or McAdams-D
WY-Barrasso-R
Democrats could pick up both AZ US Senate seats and NV. +3D
Democrats need to hold onto
FL-Nelson-D vs Scott-R
IN-Donnelly-D vs Messer-R or Rokita-R
MI-Stabenow-D vs Ritchie (Kid Rock-R)
MO-McCaskill-D vs Hawley-R or Schmitt-R or Kinder-R
MT-Tester-D vs Rosendale-R or Stapleton-R
ND-Heitkamp-D vs Cramer-R or Berg-R
OH-Brown-D vs Mandel-R
PA-Casey-D vs Barletta-R
WV-Manchin-D vs Morrisey-R or Jenkins-R
WI-Baldwin-D vs Nicholson-R
What would the US Senate look like if current/former Governors run?
2018
FL-Nelson-D vs Scott-R
ME-King-I vs LePage-R vs Russell-D
MI-Stabenow-D vs Snyder-R
NJ-Menendez-D vs Christie-R
NM-Heinrich-D vs Martinez-R
OH-Brown-D vs Kasich-R
2020
CO-Gardner-R vs Hickenlooper-D
MT-Daines-R vs Bullock-D
NH-Shaheen-D vs Sununu-R
2022
AK-Murkowski-R vs Walker-I
MD-Van Hollen-D vs Hogan-R
PA-Toomey-R vs Wolf-D
VT-Leahy-D vs Scott-R
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